Beyond the US, Russia & China: Germany's global pivot | Berlin Briefing Podcast

Key Concepts

• Diversification: Germany’s strategic shift to reduce reliance on a few key partners (US, Russia, China) in energy, defense, and trade.
• Realpolitik: A foreign policy based on practical considerations of power and national interest rather than ideology or ethics.
• De-risking: Reducing economic dependencies on potentially adversarial nations, particularly China.
• Energy Security: Ensuring a stable and reliable energy supply, moving away from Russian dependence and exploring alternatives like LNG and green hydrogen.
• Indo-Pacific Strategy: Germany’s increasing engagement with countries in the Indo-Pacific region, including Australia, New Zealand, and Pacific Island states.
• Multipolar World: A global order characterized by multiple centers of power, rather than a single dominant power.
• Economic Security: Protecting the German economy from external shocks and vulnerabilities.

Germany’s New Partnerships: Beyond the Big Three

This discussion centers on Germany’s evolving foreign policy and economic strategy, driven by a need to diversify its partnerships beyond the traditional reliance on the US, Russia, and China. The core theme is diversification – a deliberate effort to build stronger ties with a wider range of countries to bolster Germany’s energy security, defense capabilities, and trade relationships.

The Shifting Global Landscape & German Vulnerabilities

Jakob Hensing, Head of Political Economy at GPPi, highlights the erosion of the pillars that underpinned German prosperity for the past two decades: cheap energy from Russia, a strong export market in China, and US security guarantees. The relationship with China is now characterized by “competition and rivalry” rather than complementarity, posing a “structural challenge” to the German and European economies. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the German economic model and a search for new sources of stability. The current situation demands a move away from a solely values-based foreign policy towards a more pragmatic approach.

Diplomatic Initiatives: A Global Outreach

Recent diplomatic efforts demonstrate Germany’s commitment to diversification. Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU/CSU, has undertaken extensive travel to countries including Brazil, South Africa, Japan, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, emphasizing the importance of “strategic partnerships” to preserve Germany’s “freedom, security, and prosperity.” Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul’s trip to the Indo-Pacific region (Singapore, New Zealand, Tonga, Australia, Brunei) underscores Germany’s focus on building relationships with middle powers and smaller nations. These trips aim to reduce “unilateral dependencies” and create “new opportunities for mutual benefit.”

Focus on the Gulf States: Energy & Realpolitik

The visit to the Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE) is particularly significant. Michaela Küfner reports a shift towards Realpolitik, where reliability and adherence to agreements are prioritized over strict adherence to values-based principles. Germany is actively seeking alternative energy sources, particularly LNG and green hydrogen, and is willing to engage with countries previously criticized for human rights concerns. This represents a departure from past policies, such as halting arms sales to Saudi Arabia after the Khashoggi murder. Qatar’s substantial gas reserves and Saudi Arabia’s ambitions for a post-petroleum economy present potential areas of collaboration. However, this shift has drawn criticism from opposition parties, like the Left Party, who accuse the government of betraying human rights principles.

Indo-Pacific Engagement: Strategic Importance & UN Security Council Bid

Richard Walker, reporting from Brunei with Foreign Minister Wadephul, details the extensive travel involved in engaging with the Indo-Pacific region. This engagement is driven by a desire to build partnerships, particularly in areas like rare earth minerals (critical for industry) where Germany is heavily reliant on China. The trip also serves a strategic purpose: securing votes for Germany’s bid for a seat on the UN Security Council. Germany aims to position itself as a champion of middle-sized democracies in a world increasingly dominated by the US and China.

Challenges & Internal Dynamics

Several challenges complicate Germany’s diversification strategy. Jakob Hensing emphasizes the need for greater country expertise and understanding of local dynamics. He notes that Germany’s historical engagement with China, while economically beneficial, was not necessarily values-based. Furthermore, aligning European interests is crucial, as trade policy is largely determined at the EU level. Internal divisions within Germany, particularly between the government and industrial sectors (like the automotive industry), pose another obstacle. Companies may resist efforts to “de-risk” supply chains and reduce dependence on China if it impacts their profitability. Michaela Küfner points out that the US has already secured long-term rare earth contracts with Australia, highlighting Germany’s need to act quickly and decisively.

Key Quotes

• Friedrich Merz: “We will be better able to preserve and increase our freedom, security and prosperity in the long term, if we have such partnerships. Our partners may not all share the same values and interests, but they do share the understanding that we need an order in which we trust agreements and treat each other with respect.”
• Michaela Küfner: “Forging stronger ties means in real terms finding alternatives to the United States.”
• Jakob Hensing: “Recognizing the importance of this diversification agenda is central.”

Conclusion

Germany is undergoing a significant foreign policy shift, driven by a recognition of its vulnerabilities and a desire to navigate a changing global landscape. Diversification of partnerships is central to this strategy, encompassing energy, defense, and trade. While this requires a more pragmatic approach and a willingness to engage with countries that do not share Germany’s values, it is seen as essential for securing the country’s long-term interests. Successfully implementing this strategy will require overcoming internal divisions, aligning European interests, and developing a deeper understanding of the diverse countries with which Germany seeks to build stronger ties. The move signals a departure from a reliance on established powers and a move towards a more multipolar world.