Gaza war: Analyst on why Israel, Hamas do not want a 2-state solution

Key Concepts:

• Benjamin Netanyahu's Gaza plan
• Elimination of Hamas
• Israeli coalition politics
• Recognition of a Palestinian state
• Two-state solution
• International pressure on Israel
• Hamas's objectives
• Oslo Accords

Netanyahu's Gaza Plan and Domestic Politics:

• Netanyahu is determined to push forward with his Gaza plan despite growing backlash.
• He and his coalition believe Hamas must be entirely eliminated, a view contradicted by senior Israeli military officials who deem it impossible.
• The political aspect involves ultra-rightist members in his cabinet, such as Finance Minister Bezos Motric and Itamar Bengavir, who desire permanent Israeli control and resettlement of Gaza.
• Netanyahu needs these right-wing members to maintain his political position and has not shown willingness to change his coalition, even if it's against the country's best interests.
• Most Israelis (70-80% according to polls) want the war to end, but the government is not budging.

International Recognition of a Palestinian State:

• Australia is the latest to consider recognizing a Palestinian state, following moves by the UK, Canada, Portugal, and France.
• The impact on Israel's decision-making is expected to be limited, as 147 states already recognize Palestine.
• This action is seen as a desperate measure by states who feel they lack other means to pressure Israel diplomatically.
• The US is considered the primary source of potential pressure.
• Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt are working with Hamas on a new ceasefire proposal for hostage release, but the chances of bridging the gaps are slim.
• Restrictions on military supplies by countries like Australia and Germany may affect future security engagements with Israel.

Israel as a Global Pariah:

• The question is raised whether Israel is becoming a global pariah due to strong condemnation from the UN Security Council and worldwide protests.
• Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stated that Israel is becoming a pariah state.
• It's important to distinguish between the Netanyahu government and the Israeli public.
• The international condemnation doesn't seem to be significantly influencing diplomatic progress.

The Two-State Solution:

• Recent developments have put the two-state solution on life support.
• There's shock among Israelis, even those who want the war to end, regarding the recognition of a Palestinian state, given the October 7th attacks and hostages.
• Hamas opposes a two-state solution, seeking a Palestinian state without Israel.
• The situation benefits extremists in Gaza, the West Bank, and Israel.
• Final status issues like borders, refugees, and Jerusalem remain unresolved, compounded by challenges related to Gaza.
• The prospect of a two-state solution is considered farther away than at any time since the Oslo Accords in 1993.

Declining Support for the Two-State Solution:

• Polls indicate that a majority of Jewish Israelis and Palestinians no longer support the two-state solution.
• Palestinians are disillusioned due to wars in Gaza and incursions into the West Bank by the IDF, resulting in a fragmented state.
• Israelis have experienced years of terrorist attacks and believe they have made multiple offers for peace, leading to a shift to the right.
• Both sides are moving further apart on the ground.

Conclusion:

The situation is highly complex, with Netanyahu's policies driven by both ideological beliefs and political survival. International pressure, including recognition of a Palestinian state, has had limited impact. The two-state solution faces significant challenges and declining support, with both sides moving further apart. The Oslo Accords seem a distant memory, and the path forward remains uncertain.