Former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico on the business impact of the killing of a major cartel boss

Key Concepts

• CJNG (Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación): A powerful Mexican drug cartel, recently impacted by the capture of a key leader.
• Nemesio Cervantes Mencho: The captured leader of CJNG.
• Claudia Sheinbaum: Current President of Mexico, demonstrating a shift in strategy towards confronting cartels.
• Real-time Intelligence Sharing: Increased cooperation between the US and Mexico regarding intelligence, crucial for operations like the capture of Mencho.
• Travel Advisories: Recommendations issued by governments to citizens regarding the safety of travel to specific regions.
• Port of Lazaro Cardenas: A significant Mexican port potentially impacted by cartel activity, though historically less directly targeted than tourism areas.
• Extortion & Corruption: Common tactics employed by cartels impacting businesses operating in Mexico.

The Current Security Situation in Mexico Following the Capture of Nemesio Cervantes Mencho

The interview focuses on the immediate aftermath and potential long-term implications of the capture of Nemesio Cervantes Mencho, leader of the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). The speaker, a Senior Advisor at White and Case and former Ambassador, details the initial violent response by the cartel, characterized by over 200 roadblocks primarily in western states like Jalisco, demonstrating their reach and capacity for disruption. These actions prompted shelter-in-place directives, causing disruption to both domestic and international flights, though airports are now gradually reopening with disrupted schedules.

The speaker emphasizes that the capture of Mencho will inevitably trigger a succession battle within CJNG, a cartel that had grown significantly in power following the weakening of the Sinaloa Cartel. He estimates this period of uncertainty could last weeks or months, given the cartel’s established distribution networks in over 40 countries and the presence of 3-4 potential successors within the organization.

Shift in Mexican Government Strategy Under President Sheinbaum

A key argument presented is that President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is demonstrating a more committed approach to confronting cartels than previous administrations, marking a significant directional change after almost a decade. This commitment is evidenced by the successful operation against Mencho and, crucially, by the unprecedented level of real-time intelligence sharing with the United States.

The speaker highlights the importance of this intelligence sharing, stating it “suggests a level of trust that is being built up operationally between the US and Mexico. That is impressive and significant.” He believes Sheinbaum has “pivoted away from her predecessors approach” and is drawing a “very clear line” regarding the existence of these organizations within the country. This represents a fundamental shift in policy.

Impact on Tourism and Cross-Border Trade

The discussion differentiates the impact on tourism versus cross-border trade. Tourism is considered far more vulnerable. The speaker advises American tourists, particularly those planning spring break trips in March and April, to closely monitor travel advisories and potentially reconsider their plans. While large parts of the country will return to normalcy, exercising caution is paramount.

In contrast, businesses operating in Mexico, particularly those involved in manufacturing (Mexico is described as a “large manufacturing platform”), have generally been able to navigate security concerns effectively. The primary concerns for businesses are employee and customer safety, leading to measures like remote work or travel restrictions in affected areas. The Port of Lazaro Cardenas, a major shipping hub, is mentioned as a potential point of concern, but the speaker notes that cartels have historically focused more on corruption and extortion than directly disrupting the flow of goods.

Operational Coordination and Long-Term Commitment

The success of the operation against Mencho is attributed to profound operational coordination with the US, including the sharing of real-time intelligence. However, the speaker stresses that a sustained commitment to this approach is crucial for long-term success. He acknowledges that violence will likely continue in the wake of Mencho’s capture but views it as a signal of Sheinbaum’s firm stance.

Real-World Examples & Case Studies

The primary case study is the recent capture of Nemesio Cervantes Mencho and the immediate response from CJNG, illustrated by the widespread blockades and disruption to travel. This event serves as a concrete example of the cartel’s power and the potential consequences of targeting its leadership. The mention of the Port of Lazaro Cardenas provides a specific example of a critical infrastructure point that could be affected, though it hasn’t been a primary target historically.

Notable Quotes

• “People were essentially directed to shelter in place…people were pretty good about responding calmly to, you know, a very stressful situation.” – Describing the public reaction to the cartel’s initial response.
• “What it takes to do, what it takes operationally in terms of the coordination with the US on this is is profound.” – Highlighting the importance of US-Mexico cooperation.
• “Claudia Sheinbaum has pivoted away from her predecessors approach to these issues and taken a very drawn, a very clear line as to organizations like this and their existence in the country.” – Emphasizing the shift in government policy.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The capture of Nemesio Cervantes Mencho represents a significant moment in Mexico’s fight against drug cartels, particularly CJNG. The operation, facilitated by unprecedented levels of US-Mexico intelligence sharing, signals a more assertive approach under President Sheinbaum. While a period of instability and potential violence is expected as the cartel navigates a succession battle, the long-term success of this strategy hinges on continued commitment and cooperation. Travelers to Mexico, especially during peak tourist seasons, should remain vigilant and heed travel advisories, while businesses should prioritize the safety of their personnel. The situation demands close monitoring and a proactive approach to mitigate risks.