Former Israeli diplomat on what’s next for Gaza

Disarmament, Amnesty, and Impasse: Analyzing the Future of Gaza

Key Concepts:

• 20-Point Agreement (September): A proposed peace plan outlining steps for Gaza, prioritizing Hamas disarmament before reconstruction.
• International Stabilization Force: A proposed multinational force to maintain security in Gaza post-disarmament, composition of which is contentious for Israel.
• Netanyahu’s Strategy: Perceived as a tactic to stall for time, secure Trump’s support, and manage domestic political pressures.
• Supporting Local Militias: Israel’s alleged covert support for militias in Gaza, raising questions about commitment to peace.
• Narrative Control: The ongoing struggle to shape public perception of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• October 7th Attacks: The Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, serving as a pivotal event influencing current dynamics.

I. The Proposed Disarmament and Amnesty Deal

Reports from Al Jazeera indicate a potential agreement where Hamas disarmament in Gaza would be coupled with an amnesty for the group’s fighters. This information originated from a US official speaking anonymously to reporters following the recovery of the last Israeli hostage’s body. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu currently focuses solely on Hamas disarmament, rejecting immediate reconstruction efforts. The core of the disagreement stems from the “20-point agreement” from September, which explicitly states Hamas must disarm before reconstruction can begin, and contains no provisions for amnesty or clemency.

II. Obstacles to Implementation & Political Considerations

Alan Pinkas, former Israeli Consul General in New York, highlights significant hurdles to implementing the proposed deal. He argues that Hamas disarmament is contingent upon further Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a step Israel is currently unwilling to take. Furthermore, the proposed composition of the “International Stabilization Force” – including countries like Turkey and Qatar with whom Israel has strained relations – is unacceptable to Israel.

Pinkas emphasizes a fundamental impasse: “The likelihood of the second phase being implemented is equal to the likelihood of the war resuming.” He suggests that even if large-scale conflict is avoided, localized skirmishes, targeted assassinations, or miscalculations could easily reignite hostilities.

III. Netanyahu’s Strategic Maneuvering

Pinkas presents a critical assessment of Netanyahu’s motivations. He points out the contradiction in Netanyahu’s statements – claiming both the complete degradation of Hamas and the continued presence of 20,000 armed Hamas fighters. This inconsistency, according to Pinkas, suggests Netanyahu is attempting to create a situation of uncertainty to appease external and internal pressures.

Specifically, Netanyahu seeks to secure support from former US President Donald Trump, particularly crucial given the upcoming Israeli elections. Trump, having experienced limited success in other international arenas (Greenland, Ukraine, relations with Europe and Canada), may view the Middle East as a potential area for achieving a “victory.” Pinkas notes Trump’s history of meddling in foreign politics and suggests Netanyahu is willing to “play ball” to gain Trump’s public endorsement. This strategy, however, risks destabilizing Netanyahu’s coalition government.

IV. Israel’s Support for Gaza Militias & Commitment to Peace

A report from The Wall Street Journal reveals that Israel is allegedly providing quiet support to militias in Gaza fighting against Hamas. These militias, operating in areas currently controlled by Israel, are described as “criminal gangs” motivated by financial gain (money, medical supplies, food, water) rather than ideology.

Pinkas views this support as a sign of chaos, drawing parallels to Israel’s past experiences in Lebanon and the West Bank, where supporting local militias ultimately led to the emergence of more powerful and problematic groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. He warns that this approach undermines any genuine commitment to peace and order in Gaza.

V. The Battle for Narrative Control

The discussion shifts to the broader “battle for the hearts and minds” surrounding the conflict. Pinkas acknowledges that Israel has “lost the narrative” despite believing its actions following the October 7th attacks were justified. He notes a shift in global public opinion from initial support for Israel to increasing criticism.

He outlines a chronological loss of narrative control, starting with the framing of the conflict as “occupation,” then moving to accusations of “war crimes,” and finally, “genocide.” Israel’s consistent denial of these accusations, framed as responses to antisemitism, has been ineffective in shaping public perception.

Pinkas differentiates between the Israeli government’s defensive posture and the Israeli people’s growing discomfort with the perceived excessive use of force. He highlights the impact of documentaries like “The Voice of Hend Rajab,” which depict the human cost of the conflict and contribute to the changing narrative.

VI. Notable Quotes

• Alan Pinkas: “The likelihood of the second phase being implemented is equal to the likelihood of the war resuming.”
• Alan Pinkas: “If he [Netanyahu] goes along with Trump, um it's it's it's a bad sign for his coalition. If he does not go along with Trump, then Trump is going to become impatient, livid, and as he always is, erratic, and unpredictable.”
• Alan Pinkas: “If you look at the letters occupation and then and then uh war crimes and then uh genocide you see how Israel gradually and and chronologically lost the narrative.”

VII. Conclusion

The situation in Gaza remains deeply precarious. While a potential agreement involving Hamas disarmament and amnesty exists, significant obstacles – including Israeli withdrawal, the composition of the stabilization force, and Netanyahu’s political calculations – threaten its implementation. Israel’s alleged support for militias in Gaza further complicates the path to peace, and the ongoing struggle to control the narrative underscores the deep-seated challenges facing both sides. The analysis suggests a high probability of continued instability, ranging from renewed conflict to localized violence, with little immediate prospect of a lasting resolution.