What's next for the Gaza ceasefire deal now that the last israeli hostage is back? • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire Phases: A US-sponsored plan with distinct phases, currently transitioning from Phase One to Phase Two.
• Rafa Border Crossing: A critical point for humanitarian aid and potential reconstruction of Gaza.
• Disarmament of Hamas: A key Israeli demand and a major point of contention.
• Palestinian Statehood: A core demand from Hamas, explicitly rejected by Israel’s Prime Minister.
• Hamas Police Integration: Hamas’ proposal to integrate its forces into a future Palestinian administration.

Phase One Completion & Challenges of Phase Two

Phase one of the US-sponsored ceasefire plan has concluded with the return of all hostages held by Hamas. However, the transition to phase two is anticipated to be significantly more complex, centering around the reopening of the Rafa border crossing, the reconstruction of Gaza, and crucially, the disarmament of Hamas. Currently, Hamas has not expressed a direct willingness to disarm, instead suggesting it might consider it contingent upon the fulfillment of specific conditions – most notably, the establishment of a fully independent Palestinian state.

Israeli Position & Rejection of Palestinian Statehood

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued a firm and unequivocal rejection of these conditions. He stated, “I also hear now the statements that we will allow the rehabilitation of Gaza before disarmament. That will not happen. I also hear that I will allow the establishment of a Palestinian state in Gaza. That did not happen and it will not happen.” This statement underscores a fundamental disagreement and a significant obstacle to progressing beyond phase one. Netanyahu’s position effectively eliminates the primary incentive Hamas has offered for potential disarmament.

Hamas’ Integration Proposal & Potential Israeli Opposition

Further complicating matters, reports indicate Hamas is seeking to integrate its approximately 10,000 police officers into the Palestinian administration governing Gaza. This proposal is highly likely to face strong opposition from Israel, who view Hamas as a terrorist organization and are unlikely to accept the legitimization of its armed forces, even under the guise of a police force. This integration attempt represents a challenge to Israeli security concerns and control over Gaza.

Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza & Importance of Rafa Crossing

Despite the political impasse, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire. Palestinians are experiencing severe shortages of medical supplies and access to healthcare. The reopening of the Rafa border crossing, as outlined in phase two, is viewed as a critical lifeline. A Gazan resident expressed the urgency of the situation, stating, “We are waiting for the crossing and for God's mercy. We hope the crossing will open for the injured and sick. Here we are lying in the street with no medicine, no doctors, nothing. We're in the street waiting for the crossing to open.” This highlights the immediate and life-saving potential of the border crossing’s reopening.

Israeli Perspective & End of a Painful Chapter

For Israelis, the completion of phase one signifies the end of a particularly difficult period lasting over two years. While the return of hostages is a positive development, the unresolved issues surrounding Gaza’s future and the continued threat posed by Hamas remain significant concerns. The focus now shifts to ensuring the long-term security of Israel and preventing the re-emergence of Hamas’ capabilities.

Synthesis

The successful completion of phase one of the ceasefire plan is overshadowed by the substantial challenges awaiting in phase two. The core conflict revolves around Hamas’ demand for a Palestinian state in exchange for disarmament, a demand categorically rejected by Israel. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza underscores the urgent need for the Rafa border crossing to reopen, but the broader political obstacles remain formidable. The integration of Hamas’ police force into a Palestinian administration presents another potential flashpoint. Ultimately, the future of Gaza and the long-term stability of the region hinge on resolving these fundamental disagreements.