'Everyone's angry' inside Iran but what will the world find after the blackout? | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Iranian Protests (2022-2023): Widespread anti-government demonstrations sparked by economic grievances and evolving into calls for regime change.
• Internet Shutdown: The Iranian government’s deliberate disruption of internet access to suppress protests and limit information flow.
• Economic Sanctions: The impact of international sanctions on Iran’s economy and the resulting hardship for the middle class.
• Reza Pahlavi: The son of the former Shah of Iran, positioned as a potential leader in a post-regime transition.
• Regime Atrocities: Allegations of escalating violence and human rights abuses by Iranian security forces against protesters.
• Cost of Protest: The diminishing economic security of Iranians leading to increased willingness to participate in protests despite the risks.

Escalating Protests and Information Blackout in Iran

The video details the ongoing anti-regime protests in Iran, now entering their third week, occurring amidst a near-total internet blackout imposed by the government. This blackout is a deliberate tactic to both hinder protesters’ ability to organize – particularly in cities like Tehran – and to conceal the extent of the violence being perpetrated against them from the international community. Iranian Australian Manu Gamari highlights the desperation of those inside Iran, reporting accounts from contacts using Starlink of machine guns being used against unarmed civilians, a significant escalation from the rubber bullets used in 2022. Gamari states, “People are bare hands against AKs and they need help. They need support.”

Origins and Evolution of the Protests

Initially triggered by a devaluation of the Iranian currency in late December, leading to increased costs for imported goods, the protests rapidly transformed into a widespread political uprising. Dr. Christina Azodi, an Iran specialist, notes the protests have spread to major cities including Tehran, Tabriz, Shiraz, Esfahan, Mashad, and Qom – the latter two being traditionally strongholds of support for the Islamic Republic. This expansion to religious centers is particularly significant.

Professor Muhammad Raza Farzanigum explains that years of economic sanctions and declining living standards have eroded the economic security of Iran’s middle class, lowering the “cost of protest.” He defines this “cost of protest” as the amount individuals have to lose by participating, arguing that sanctions have reduced this cost, thereby broadening the social base of the protests.

Regime Response and International Reactions

The Iranian President has blamed foreign actors – specifically the United States and Israel – for instigating the violence, accusing them of planning attacks on mosques and the burning of religious texts. Former US President Donald Trump responded by stating the US may intervene if the crackdown continues, declaring, “If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States.”

Gizunia, a human rights lawyer specializing in Iran, expresses deep concern over the potential scale of violence the regime may unleash on protesters. She emphasizes the internet shutdown is not only about suppressing organization but also about obscuring “the scale of atrocities.”

The Role of Reza Pahlavi and Future Scenarios

The video addresses the increasing prominence of Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the Shah of Iran, as a potential leader in a post-regime transition. He has offered to lead the country’s transition should the current government fall and directly addressed Iranian security services in a video message. However, Dr. Azodi cautions against assuming Pahlavi will necessarily play a significant role, pointing out that Iranian history does not demonstrate a pattern of restored dynasties after collapse. She emphasizes the 1979 revolution aimed to replace a dictatorship with a republic representing the people, but instead resulted in “yet another and even worse dictatorship.”

Unifying Force and Current Sentiment

Manu Gamari highlights a key difference between these protests and previous ones: a unifying force and a clear objective. He notes that chants calling for Reza Pahlavi’s return are emerging from even the smallest and most remote towns across Iran, indicating a widespread desire for change. The video underscores the immense risk involved in participating in these protests, stating that simply coming out onto the streets in Iran carries the potential for death.

Conclusion

The situation in Iran is characterized by escalating protests fueled by economic hardship and a desire for political change, met with a brutal crackdown and an attempt to control information through an internet blackout. While the potential for external intervention and the role of figures like Reza Pahlavi remain uncertain, the video clearly conveys the Iranian people’s strong desire for regime change and their willingness to risk their lives to achieve it. The protests represent a significant challenge to the Islamic Republic, which has consistently demonstrated its willingness to employ ruthless tactics to maintain power.