Estonian Defense Minister: We know what the Russian plan is | DW News

Summary of Interview with Estonian Defense Minister Hanu Pevkur

Key Concepts:

• Russia-Ukraine talks, low-level representation, lack of seriousness
• US perception of Putin's reluctance, potential for new sanctions
• Coalition of the willing, European forces in Ukraine, conditions for peace
• Russian military buildup near Estonian border, increased defense spending
• NATO exercise "Hedgehog," deterrence, readiness to defend
• Shadow fleet, illegal oil transports, Russian protection, sanctions
• Defense spending, 2% and 5% GDP targets, capability targets, NATO commitments

Russia-Ukraine Talks and International Perception

• Main Point: Estonia views Russia's approach to peace talks with Ukraine as unserious due to the low-level representation sent by Russia.
• Details:
  • Russia sends low-level officials to negotiate with high-level Ukrainian officials.
  • This sends an "unpleasant message" indicating a lack of genuine desire for peace.
  • Minister Pevkur expresses low expectations for the Istanbul talks.
• US Perspective: The US is increasingly recognizing Putin's reluctance to engage meaningfully in peace talks.
• Ukraine's Position: Ukraine has been cooperative, signing mineral deals with the US and expressing readiness to negotiate at the presidential level. President Zelenskyy attended the Istanbul talks, while Putin did not.
• Potential Consequences: The US Congress may move forward with new sanctions if Putin continues to avoid serious engagement.

Coalition of the Willing and European Involvement

• Main Point: The "coalition of the willing" remains active, with Europe ready to guarantee peace in Ukraine under certain conditions.
• Conditions: Ukraine desires European forces to be present in Ukraine to guarantee peace.
• Next Steps: The specifics need to be clarified during peace talks to determine how the coalition can proceed.

Russian Military Buildup and Estonian Response

• Main Point: Estonia is aware of Russia's plans to increase its military presence near its borders and is preparing accordingly.
• Russian Plans: Russia intends to increase troop numbers to 1.5 million and augment its arsenal of tanks, attack helicopters, and infantry fighting vehicles.
• Estonian Response:
  • Estonia is increasing its defense spending to above 5% of GDP.
  • Estonia hosted the largest NATO exercise, "Hedgehog," with 18,000 troops (including 6,000 allies from 14 nations) near the Russian border.
  • The goal is to deter Russia and prevent war.

Shadow Fleet and Illegal Oil Transports

• Main Point: Russia is using a "shadow fleet" to transport oil, and Estonia is working with international partners to address this issue.
• Incident: During Exercise Hedgehog, a Russian fighter jet entered Estonian airspace while Estonia was escorting a shadow tanker out of its territorial waters.
• Russian Acknowledgment: Russia has, for the first time, declared responsibility for protecting the shadow fleet, even vessels without flags. The vessel "Jaguar" sailing under the flag of Gabon was sailing without a flag when approaching Estonian waters.
• International Response:
  • Estonia is discussing the issue with the Nordic policy group and at upcoming Defense and EU Foreign Ministers Meetings (DMM).
  • The focus is on sanctioning the shadow fleet and restricting its movement in the Baltic Sea.
  • The 17th sanctions package is underway, and the ship involved in the incident may be included.
• Scale of the Problem: Approximately 500 shadow fleet vessels are circulating, and 60-80% of Russian oil exports by sea pass through the Baltic Sea.

Defense Spending and NATO Commitments

• Main Point: Estonia is committed to high defense spending and urges other NATO members to meet their commitments.
• Estonian Spending: Estonia is already pledging over 5% of its GDP to defense. Next year it will be 5.4%.
• Concerns: Some countries are not even meeting the 2% GDP target agreed upon in 2014.
• Discussions: Discussions are ongoing regarding the definition of defense spending and what should be included in the additional spending beyond the 2% baseline.
• Capability Targets:
  • New capability targets will be approved at the upcoming DMM in Brussels.
  • Meeting these targets will require increased investment in defense.
  • Estonia's 5.4% spending is based on calculations of the cost of achieving its capability targets.
• NATO Principles: The "one for all, all for one" principle remains valid. Estonia has participated in operations in Afghanistan and Iraq alongside its allies, demonstrating its commitment to collective security.

Conclusion

Estonia is taking a firm stance against Russia's actions, both in Ukraine and in the Baltic Sea region. The country is investing heavily in its defense capabilities, working with international partners to address the shadow fleet issue, and urging other NATO members to meet their defense spending commitments. Estonia views collective security and adherence to agreed-upon goals as essential for maintaining peace and stability within the alliance.