'This is weakness in Russia' Estonian Prime Minister Michal | DW News

Key Concepts

• Airspace Incursions: Unauthorized entry of aircraft into a nation's sovereign airspace.
• NATO Article 4: Consultation among allies when a member's territorial integrity, political independence, or security is threatened.
• NATO Article 5 (Collective Defense): An attack against one ally is considered an attack against all allies.
• Rules of Engagement (ROE): Directives governing the circumstances and limitations under which military forces may initiate or continue combat.
• Air Policing: Peacetime mission to preserve the security of NATO airspace.
• Eastern Sentry: NATO's enhanced air policing and defense posture on its eastern flank.
• SAMT Systems: Surface-to-air missile systems (e.g., SAMP/T), used for air defense.
• Shadow Fleet: A clandestine fleet of vessels, often tankers, used to circumvent sanctions, particularly for transporting oil.
• GDP (Gross Domestic Product): A measure of the total economic output of a country.
• Innovation Cycle: The process of developing and implementing new ideas, products, or processes.

Airspace Incursions and NATO's Response

NATO allies are actively discussing a tougher response to a recent increase in airspace incursions, particularly following an "unprecedented provocation" involving three Russian MIG jets in Estonian airspace. The Estonian Prime Minister, Kristen Mikuel, highlighted that these jets flew around Estonian airspace for 12 minutes.

The European Parliament recently passed a resolution calling for a stronger response from EU countries to these provocations. Prime Minister Mikuel views this as significant support for the Baltics, Poland, and all of Europe and NATO. He noted that NATO is "working well," citing instances where NATO forces, including Finnish and Italian jets (F-35s), responded to the incursions. In Poland, NATO forces reportedly "shot down something in the airspace" (referring to drones), demonstrating NATO's operational capability.

Estonia's Perspective and Confidence in NATO

Estonia feels "overwhelmingly" supported by Brussels and other allies. Prime Minister Mikuel recalled invoking NATO's Article 4, which led to strong messages of support from Nordic countries, across Europe, and even from former U.S. President Trump, who repeatedly stated that the U.S. would protect Poland and the Baltics if needed. Mikuel affirmed, "NATO's working, chain of command, all the procedures are there. So, yes, we feel that NATO is working and our allies are backing us."

Regarding the classified rules of engagement (ROE), Mikuel expressed "confidence in NATO procedures." He explained that each airspace violation involves a "certain determination and certain assessment" by pilots and NATO personnel regarding the intruder's "intention," "direction," and "weaponry." This continuous assessment ensures that "everything is in place and it's working."

While some Estonian citizens and even government figures have suggested shooting down intruding jets, Mikuel clarified that such decisions are not based on "opinion polls." Instead, they are made by "NATO command to assess what is the intention." He reiterated that NATO has demonstrated its capability by shooting down drones in Poland.

Russia's Intentions and Strategic Play

The Prime Minister confirmed that the Russian pilots involved in the Estonian incursion "knew that they had to leave our airspace and they were still there." He characterized this as "Russian usual negligence or a bad will." Mikuel argued that Russia's primary objective with these provocations is to "stir up Estonia" and divert attention from the war in Ukraine. He stated, "Let's not talk about Ukraine. Let's talk about our borders. Let's not give anything to Ukraine. We need it here. So, this is like the game Putin and Russia is playing."

Mikuel believes this strategy is not working in terms of reducing support from frontline countries like the Baltics, but it does temporarily shift public attention, as seen with drone incursions in Denmark. He emphasized that the core messages remain: "NATO is working, European Union every ally we are strong together and we are resolved," and "Russia is the problem not anybody else."

Economic Pressure and Future Defense Strategies

The Prime Minister stressed the importance of focusing on "getting Russia out of Ukraine" and "getting the money out of their hands." He highlighted the "shadow fleet" operating in the Baltic Sea, which he estimates transports "a little bit less than half of Russia's war chest," providing "fresh cash coming to Putin to wage war against NATO, Europe and Ukraine." Mikuel argued, "Nobody can wage the war without the money. If you take the money away from Putin, he won't be able to waste the war." He suggested that cutting these financial lifelines is the "wisest thing."

Regarding future defense, Mikuel praised NATO's "Eastern Sentry" capabilities as "absolutely on point," with additional capabilities like Italian SAMT systems staying longer. He reiterated the need to pressure Russia economically by not buying energy and other commodities, calling it a "big oxymoron" that Europe buys from Russia while funding Ukraine against Russia. He also emphasized maintaining a strong transatlantic alliance.

Estonia plans to significantly increase its defense investment to 5% of its GDP next year, a decision Mikuel described as "probably the hardest decision the country has to make" due to the necessity of raising taxes and making public sector cuts. While Estonia currently relies on ground-based air defense, the acquisition of fighter jets depends on "military assessment and NATO defense plans."

Estonia's Defense Investment and Collective Security

Mikuel underscored that NATO is a "collective defense organization," meaning allies "depend on each other." He cited the recent synchronization of Baltic energy grids with Central European grids, moving away from Russia, which required NATO's "enhanced vigilance action on the sea" to protect critical infrastructure. He firmly stated, "NATO is our plan and NATO is working good."

He also referenced former President Trump's commitment to NATO and Article 5, noting that Trump's message about Europe contributing more to defense resonated with him. Mikuel interpreted Trump's suggestion to "shoot down the planes if they come in" as a "very strong" message, though he reiterated that actual decisions depend on NATO's procedural assessment of intent, direction, and weaponry.

Addressing concerns raised by former Estonian President Toomas Ilves about NATO's willingness to shoot down jets only after a mass casualty event, Mikuel countered that NATO has already demonstrated its capability by shooting down drones in Poland, indicating that "NATO has the capabilities and also the chain of command to shoot something down... in NATO's airspace."

Critique of Past Approaches and Conclusion

Mikuel acknowledged that the Baltics and Poland have long advocated for built-up defenses, including against drones, and that Europe might be "years behind" Russia in some areas, particularly in "numbers and blunt technology." However, he argued that Europe is not behind in "knowledge," "technologically," or "economic capacities." He highlighted that Ukraine is helping Europe assess new drone technologies, accelerating the innovation cycle from years to months in a conflict zone. He predicted that "in three, five, seven years Europe will be a project with arms and capabilities, defense industry also because Europe was a project of peace without arms and it will be project with arms."

Finally, Mikuel strongly criticized former German Chancellor Angela Merkel's recent comments blaming the Baltics for hindering dialogue with Putin. He stated, "The politeness everybody in Europe thinks that you should be polite to Putin. This is weakness in Russia. This is interpreted as a weakness." He asserted that "Only thing that helps against Russia is resolution being on your line, staying on your standing on your crown and being strong and united." He pointed to the Nord Stream pipelines as evidence that deals with Putin did not help.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The Estonian Prime Minister's remarks underscore a firm belief in NATO's effectiveness and the necessity of a robust, united response to Russian aggression. He emphasizes that recent airspace incursions are a deliberate Russian tactic to divert attention from Ukraine and sow discord, rather than accidental events. Estonia, despite its small size, is committed to significant defense spending (5% of GDP) and relies heavily on NATO's collective defense framework and established procedures for security. The core message is that economic pressure on Russia, particularly by cutting off its "shadow fleet" and energy revenues, combined with a strong transatlantic alliance and increased defense capabilities, is the most effective strategy to end the war in Ukraine and ensure European security. The Prime Minister also strongly advocates for a resolute stance against Russia, viewing politeness as a sign of weakness that only emboldens Moscow.