Estonia's former President on lessons learnt in dealing with Putin • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Exercise BALTOPS: A long-standing NATO maritime exercise (since 1972) involving amphibious landings, anti-submarine warfare, and drone operations.
• Strategic Autonomy: The concept that the European Union must develop independent military and technological capabilities to ensure security, reducing reliance on the United States.
• Shadow Fleet: A collection of aging tankers used by Russia to circumvent international sanctions on oil exports.
• Divide et Impera (Divide and Rule): A political strategy where external actors exploit divisions within a group (e.g., the EU) to weaken their collective bargaining power.
• KGB Mindset: A reference to Vladimir Putin’s background, characterized by the use of manipulation and psychological tactics in international diplomacy.
• Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA): A former EU-Russia framework that provided aid and cooperation, which critics argue was used by Russia to maintain influence despite aggressive actions.

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1. NATO and Regional Security

• Exercise BALTOPS: Currently taking place in the Baltic Sea, the exercise involves 20 ships and 6,000 troops from 16 nations. However, it has been significantly scaled down compared to previous years.
• US Drawdown: A major factor in the reduced scale of NATO exercises is the US military’s shift in priorities, with a significant portion of its naval assets deployed to the Persian Gulf and a general pivot away from the European theater.
• Deterrence: Frontline countries (those bordering Russia) have dramatically increased defense expenditures to counter the threat from Moscow, moving away from the historical reliance on Western European diplomatic approaches.

2. Dealing with Vladimir Putin

• The "No Bullying" Doctrine: Toomas Hendrik Ilves argues that the only effective way to handle Russia is to refuse to be bullied. He emphasizes that Western leaders often "mirror image" themselves when analyzing Putin, failing to realize that his calculus is based on imperialist, 1930s-style "blood and soil" ideology rather than rational economic cooperation.
• Diplomatic Risks: Ilves warns against individual EU member states attempting solo negotiations with Putin, as this facilitates Russian "divide and rule" tactics. He specifically criticized the idea of using figures like Gerhard Schröder as intermediaries due to a lack of trust among EU members.
• The "Macronite" Phenomenon: The term "macronite" was coined in Russia to describe Western leaders who repeatedly engage in fruitless dialogue with Putin, achieving no tangible results.

3. Strategic Autonomy and EU Reform

• Shift in Influence: Ilves notes a historical "fissure" between Eastern and Western Europe. Previously, Eastern European warnings about Russian aggression were dismissed as "post-Soviet traumatic stress." This has changed since 2022, with leaders from the Baltic region (like Kaja Kallas) now being taken seriously in high-level strategy.
• Technological Gap: Ilves argues that European defense is currently hampered by a lack of investment in innovation and technology. He supports the reforms proposed by Mario Draghi, emphasizing that defense is not just about "buying things that go boom," but about fundamental technological competitiveness.
• Institutional Changes: There is a positive trend of appointing officials from Eastern Europe to senior positions in the EU and NATO, reflecting the reality that these nations are the most directly threatened by Russian expansionism.

4. Historical Lessons: The 2008 Georgia War

• The "Ad Hoc" Response: Ilves recounted the 2008 intervention in Georgia, where he and the late Polish President Lech Kaczynski traveled to Tbilisi to support demonstrators. Kaczynski famously warned: "Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after the Baltic states, and later perhaps my country."
• Failure of Diplomacy: Ilves criticized the EU’s response at the time, specifically the restoration of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) with Russia, which he argues signaled to Moscow that Europe would acquiesce to the occupation of sovereign territory.

5. Notable Quotes

• Toomas Hendrik Ilves: "History has shown that the only way actually to deal with Putin and actually Russia is not to allow yourself to be bullied."
• Toomas Hendrik Ilves: "The problem with the West is that we mirror image ourselves when we look at Putin. We think that he has the same calculus."
• Margaret Thatcher (quoted by interviewer): "I looked at the pictures of Mr. Putin trying to look for a trace of humanity. I should have known better."

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The discussion highlights a critical turning point in European security. The primary takeaway is that the era of "blind faith" in Russian cooperation is over. Toomas Hendrik Ilves advocates for a unified European approach that prioritizes strategic autonomy, technological innovation, and a firm, non-conciliatory stance toward the Kremlin. The shift in power dynamics within the EU—moving away from Western European dominance toward a more balanced influence that includes the frontline states—is presented as a necessary evolution to effectively deter Russian aggression and ensure long-term stability.