The Security Brief: Putin provokes Europe with drones and fighter jets | BBC News

Key Concepts

• Russian Airspace Incursions: Deliberate or accidental violations of NATO member states' sovereign airspace by Russian military aircraft and drones.
• Quick Reaction Alert (QRA): NATO's system of continuously available fighter jets ready to scramble and intercept unidentified or hostile aircraft.
• Transponders: Electronic devices on aircraft that transmit identification codes and altitude information to radar systems. Their deactivation is a significant indicator of hostile intent or evasion.
• Primary Radar vs. Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR): Primary radar detects objects by bouncing radio waves off them (appearing as a "blip"), while SSR relies on transponder signals for identification and altitude data.
• Hybrid Attacks: Multi-faceted attacks employing a combination of military, paramilitary, and non-military means (e.g., drones, balloons, cyberattacks) to destabilize an adversary.
• Deterrence by Denial: A strategy aimed at convincing an adversary that their attack will fail due to the target's strong defenses.
• Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Missiles: Air-to-air missiles capable of engaging targets at distances beyond the pilot's direct line of sight.
• Operation Eastern Sentry: A NATO initiative enhancing air defense capabilities along the alliance's eastern flank, involving air and naval assets.
• Integrated Air Defense System (IADS): A networked system of sensors, command and control, and weapon systems designed to provide comprehensive air defense coverage.

Russian Airspace Incursions and NATO's Response

The transcript details a significant increase in Russian air asset incursions into NATO airspace over the past two months, highlighting a concerning escalation in tensions. At least six such incidents are noted, including the flight of 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace and repeated interceptions of Russian intelligence aircraft over the Baltic Sea by Polish fighter jets. This pattern suggests a deliberate Russian strategy to test NATO's defenses and probe its resolve.

Recent Incursions and Their Significance

• May Incursion (Estonia): A single Russian SU-35 jet breached Estonian airspace in the Gulf of Finland. This occurred while Estonian maritime forces were attempting to apprehend a Russian tanker suspected of circumventing sanctions. The SU-35's presence was interpreted as a "show of force." Notably, this was a single aircraft, deviating from the traditional QRA practice of launching pairs for mutual support, especially in potentially confrontational situations.
• Polish Airspace Drone Incursions: Nineteen Russian "Gerbra" drones entered Polish airspace unannounced. These drones are described as similar in shape to the Iranian Shahed 136 (known as "Garand 2" in Russia), but with a smaller payload and constructed from polystyrene and plywood. Analysis suggests the Gerbra is significantly cheaper to produce, allowing for their use in larger numbers to overwhelm air defenses.
• Estonian Airspace MiG-31 Incursion: Three Russian MiG-31 "Foxhound" aircraft entered Estonian airspace for 12 minutes with their transponders turned off. The MiG-31 is a high-speed aircraft capable of Mach 2.8. The absence of transponder data meant these aircraft were only detectable as "blips" on primary radar, hindering identification and tracking.
• Lithuanian Airspace Incursion: A Russian SU-30 fighter jet and an Il-78 tanker were detected 700 meters inside Lithuanian airspace for approximately 18 seconds. This incident occurred near Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and is considered less of a threat, likely a mistake, but still a violation of sovereign airspace.
• Baltic Sea Economic Zone Violation: On the same day as the Lithuanian incursion, two Russian fighter jets violated Poland's economic security zone over a drilling platform in the Baltic Sea.
• Recent Baltic Sea Reconnaissance Flights: This week saw two instances where Polish fighter jets intercepted Russian reconnaissance aircraft flying over the Baltic Sea without transponders. While these aircraft did not violate Polish airspace, their flight plan deviations and deactivated transponders posed a threat to air traffic.
• Lithuanian Smuggling Balloons: Lithuania experienced airspace closures due to helium balloons launched from areas controlled by the Belarusian KGB, indicating a broader use of hybrid tactics.

Understanding Transponders and Radar Systems

The transcript emphasizes the critical role of transponders in air traffic control and military air defense. A transponder is a small device in an aircraft's cockpit that transmits a unique four-digit code, usually assigned by air traffic control. This code, along with altitude information (under Mo Charlie protocols), is picked up by Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR), allowing controllers to identify and track aircraft on their screens. When transponders are turned off, aircraft are only visible on primary radar, appearing as undifferentiated "blips," making identification and threat assessment significantly more challenging.

NATO's Strategic Response to Hybrid Attacks

General Domanowski, Vice Chief of Defense in Poland, outlines a multi-layered approach to responding to Russia's multi-dimensional tactics:

1. Robust Military Response: Swift, firm, and resolute military reactions are paramount, acting at the "speed of relevance."
2. Capability Building: Long-term efforts to enhance air defense capabilities along the eastern flank and around critical infrastructure.
3. Strategic Response: A combination of political and diplomatic messaging, coupled with building strategic capabilities to demonstrate deterrence by denial and the potential to use other assets to protect sovereignty.

The Dilemma of Escalation and Deterrence

A key challenge for NATO is deterring Russian aggression without triggering an uncontrolled escalation. The question of whether NATO has a "green light" to shoot down encroaching Russian aircraft is addressed. While the primary task is defense, actions will always be "by the books." However, in cases of deep incursions or significant threats, "all measures" will be taken to stop the danger.

Mikey Kay, a former RAF pilot, highlights the importance of communicating NATO's intent to Russia, including the potential for lethal force. This communication is primarily achieved through strategic messaging, training, exercises, and the posture of forces, demonstrating determination, readiness, and unity among allies.

NATO's Air Defense Assets and Capabilities

The transcript details NATO's air defense network and assets:

• United Kingdom:
  • RAF Lossiemouth (QRA North): Operates Typhoons for quick reaction alert in northern Scotland.
  • RAF Coningsby (QRA South): Operates Typhoons for quick reaction alert in southern England.
  • These bases provide 24/7 QRA coverage for UK sovereign airspace.
• Norway:
  • Evenes Air Base: Operates F-35 fighters. Norway's geography, bordering Russia, necessitates a robust integrated air defense network (IATS) with radars probing westward.
• Sweden:
  • Operates JS-39 Gripen fighter jets from two air bases.
• Finland:
  • Operates F-18 fighter jets from four air bases. Finns have developed expertise in operating aircraft from dispersed locations, including forests.
• Typhoon Fighter Jet Capabilities:
  • Equipped with a mix of Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missiles, such as medium-range missiles (up to 125 miles) and shorter-range missiles like the ASRAAM (5-20 km).
  • Also equipped with a 27mm Mauser cannon.
• Threat Assessment by NATO Pilots:
  • When intercepting Russian aircraft, NATO pilots assess the armament. A MiG-31 carrying a Kinzhal hypersonic missile is considered a significantly higher threat than one with air-to-air missiles.
  • The intent of the Russian aircraft (e.g., heading towards urban centers versus leaving sovereign airspace) is crucial in determining the proportionate response.

Operation Eastern Sentry and Enhanced Air Picture

Operation Eastern Sentry is a key NATO initiative to bolster air defense on the eastern flank. This operation involves:

• Air Assets:
  • UK Typhoons with Voyager tankers flying over Polish airspace.
  • French Rafale jets deployed to Poland.
  • German Typhoons.
  • Danish F-16 fighter jets.
• Naval Assets:
  • Danish and German frigates equipped with powerful air defense radars. These radars contribute to a common operational air picture and enhance the integrated air defense system.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

The transcript concludes by emphasizing the increasing tempo of Russian incursions and the complex challenge NATO faces in responding effectively while avoiding escalation. The discussion highlights the importance of a united, determined, and strategically communicated response, backed by robust military capabilities and integrated air defense systems. The upcoming episode on Donald Trump's pronouncements on nuclear testing suggests a continued focus on critical security issues.