Drones plunge Ukraine regions into ‘total blackout’ & Russian-flagged oil tanker attacked

Ukraine the Latest - January 8th, 2024: Summary

Key Concepts:

• Shadowfleet: A network of tankers used to circumvent sanctions on Russian oil.
• Orbat (Order of Battle): The structure and composition of military units.
• FPV (First-Person View) Drones: Drones controlled remotely with a live video feed, increasingly used in combat.
• BMS (Battlefield Management System): Systems used for situational awareness and command & control.
• Arc 7 Tankers: Ice-breaking tankers designed for Arctic shipping, crucial for Russian LNG exports.
• DFC (US International Development Finance Corporation): A US government agency providing financing for development projects.

Military Updates & Infrastructure Attacks

Russian strikes on January 7th, 2024, resulted in complete power outages in Petrok Oblast and Zaprizia Oblast. Ukraine’s energy minister reported extended outage schedules, with some settlements remaining without electricity. Zaprizia Oblast experienced its first total blackout in recent years, with power restoration beginning around 3:00 a.m. local time. Temperatures are expected to remain below -10°C (14°F) in the coming days. An explosion near a thermal power plant in Dnipro was reported, though authorities haven’t confirmed a direct hit. Over a million people in Dnipro and Petrok Oblast were left without water and heating, with city hospitals switching to generator power. School holidays in Dnipro and Petrok Oblast have been extended. Ukraine’s General Staff reported 1,400 Russian casualties on January 7th, with 70 out of 97 launched drones downed.

A Russian Shadowfleet oil tanker, the Palau-flagged Elbus, was damaged by a suspected Ukrainian drone attack approximately 30 miles off the Turkish coast while en route to Novorossiysk. Imagery, though unverified, shows a large plume of smoke. This is considered a direct Ukrainian sanctioning effort.

Diplomatic & Political Developments

US, Ukrainian, and coalition officials continued negotiations in Paris following a main meeting on Tuesday. Ukraine’s presidential office head, Karo Padanov, reported “tangible results” but declined to provide details, focusing on security guarantees and a “just peace.” He met with the head of French military intelligence, General Jacques Longlad Deongro, and shared a photo of the meeting at Napoleon’s tomb.

Donald Trump’s comments regarding a 50% increase in US defense spending (from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion) caused surges in defense company stock prices, particularly for British firms like BAE Systems (up 6%), Babcock (up 2.5%), and Chemring (up 3%). German (Rheinmetall up 4%), Italian (Leonardo up 3.5%), and Swedish (Saab up 2.5%) companies also saw gains. However, US defense stocks fell after Trump announced plans to cap executive pay at $5 million until new factories are built, aiming to accelerate rearmament. He criticized current executive compensation as “exorbitant and unjustifiable.”

International Legion Restructuring

Reports from the Kyiv Independent indicate uncertainty and concern among foreign fighters in Ukraine’s International Legion due to a planned restructuring. The Legion is to be dissolved as a standalone unit and its combat battalions integrated into regular Ukrainian army assault regiments by the end of 2025. Some fighters express frustration at the lack of clear guidance regarding their future roles and contracts. One commander described the situation as a dismantling of a “coherent, beautifully arranged, and efficient team.” However, contacts within the Legion suggest the changes are primarily logistical, addressing inefficiencies in support structures and recruitment (recruits facing up to four-month delays). They believe the restructuring will largely maintain existing missions and contracts. The Legion’s original structure was inefficient, operating as a brigade with only battalion-sized units.

Financial & Economic Impacts

The Telegram messaging app faces challenges due to frozen bonds in Russia, worth approximately $500 million, under Western sanctions. Telegram maintains it has largely repaid these bonds and complies with sanctions, but the situation raises questions about its continued financial exposure to Russia. Telegram issued a firm rebuttal to a Financial Times report on the matter.

The EU has been accused of fueling Putin’s war, with Russian terminal Yamal LNG importing $8.4 billion (£66 billion) of liquified natural gas to European markets in 2023. Despite an agreed ban on Russian gas imports beginning in 2028, continued purchases are expected to funnel billions of euros to Moscow. France and Belgium were the largest importers.

US Senator Lindsey Graham announced Trump’s approval of a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill, potentially imposing secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil and gas (China, Brazil, India). The US has also filed criminal charges against the crew of the oil tanker Mariner, accused of transporting sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran. Russia demands humane treatment for the crew.

Parliamentary & International Responses

UK Parliament discussed Starmer’s proposal to deploy troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire, mirroring France’s similar consideration. Several hundred Lithuanian soldiers could also potentially be deployed. Russia condemned these plans as “militaristic declarations” and warned Western troops would be legitimate targets. Starmer pledged a parliamentary vote on any deployment. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, opposed the deployment, citing manpower and equipment limitations, and was criticized by Labour as “Putin’s puppet.”

Humanitarian Concerns & Reporting

An exiled Russian journalist was found dead after falling from his seventh-floor apartment in France, having reportedly received death threats. Police found a chair by the window and medicine in the flat, with suicide being the leading theory, though an investigation is underway. This echoes a similar case in Moscow last October.

On-the-Ground Report from Anna Conkling (Kyiv)

Anna Conkling reported a period of relative calm in Kyiv, but ongoing power outages are a major concern, particularly with the current freezing temperatures. A government app provides scheduled outage notifications, but is not always accurate and is entirely in Ukrainian, posing challenges for expats. While Kyiv maintains a semblance of normalcy, areas closer to the front lines, like Donbas, are facing severe hardship with no electricity, heating, or hot water. She noted a prevailing sentiment that a swift end to the war is unlikely, despite recent diplomatic activity. She highlighted the challenges faced by journalists in covering the conflict, with a focus shifting away from in-depth reporting due to the constant flow of news.

Final Thoughts & Resources

The podcast highlighted an Economist article detailing Ukraine’s improved defensive fortifications, comparing them favorably to the situation in 2022. The DFC launched an online portal for investment projects in Ukraine, funded by hydrocarbon auctions. The podcast emphasized the importance of supporting independent journalism and provided links to resources, including the Telegraph’s Ukraine coverage, the Ukraine the Latest newsletter, and the podcast’s social media channels.

Notable Quotes:

• “Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.” (Attributed to an unspecified source, likely a motivational statement)
• “The Russia does not want peace. If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.” (Donald Trump)
• “We are with you, not just today or tomorrow, but for a hundred years.” (Attributed to an unspecified source, likely a statement of support)
• “Nobody's going to break us. We are strong. We are Ukrainians.” (Attributed to an unspecified source, likely a statement of national resilience)
• “If we had such defensive lines in 2022, the situation on the ground will be the complete opposite of what it is now.” (Vashis Lavitenko, commander of a drone battalion)
• “What really pees me off the most is that the completely coherent, beautifully arranged, and efficient team is being killed. There's no reason, no logic.” (International Legion commander)
• “Accuracy is evidently less compelling than sensationalism.” (Telegram’s response to the FT article)

This summary aims to provide a detailed and specific account of the podcast content, maintaining the original language and technical precision.