Does targeting Israeli cities with missiles signal a change in Iran’s strategy? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Operation Rising Lion: Israel's military operation aimed at removing Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile threat.
• Retaliation: Iran's response to Israeli strikes, including missile volleys targeting Israeli population centers.
• Nuclear Program: Iran's dispersed nuclear facilities, including Natanz, Fordow, and a newly inaugurated enrichment site.
• De-escalation: Calls from world leaders to prevent a larger conflict.
• Regime Change: Potential, but uncertain, possibility following Israeli strikes.

Israeli Strikes on Iran

• Targets: Israel launched a large-scale operation, "Operation Rising Lion," targeting military and nuclear sites across Iran.
• Casualties: High-ranking Iranian military commanders, including Major General Muhammad Bagheri (chief of staff), General Hussein Salami (commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards), and General Golam Mali Rashid (deputy commander-in-chief), were killed. Top nuclear scientists, including Faredon Abbasi and Muhammad Mahanji, were also among the casualties.
• Nuclear Facilities: The key Iranian nuclear site Natanz and Ispahan were hit. Israel claims to have targeted Iran's main enrichment facility in Natanz.
• Rationale: Israel aims to remove Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile threat, viewing the operation as essential for its survival. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated the objective is to remove both the nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat to Israel.
• Impact: The strikes are intended to shape the regime's calculus, making it see more to lose by pursuing nuclear weapons.

Iranian Retaliation

• Missile Attacks: Iran retaliated with missile volleys targeting Israeli population centers.
• Number of Missiles: Conflicting figures were reported, ranging from less than 100 to up to 150 missiles launched.
• Interception: Most missiles were reportedly intercepted by Israeli and US missile defenses.
• Impacts: Reports indicated at least nine impacts on the ground.
• Casualties: At least 21 people were wounded, with one listed as critical.
• Motivation: Iran claims the strikes were in response to Israeli attacks on Iranian targets, including nuclear sites.

Netanyahu's Address to the Iranian People

• Message: Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people directly, distinguishing between the "murderous regime" and the "brave people of Iran."
• Call to Action: He urged Iranians to unite around their flag and stand up for their freedom from an "evil and oppressive regime."
• Historical Context: He referenced the historical friendship between the nations of Iran and Israel since the days of Cyrus the Great.
• Promise: Netanyahu stated that Israel's fight is not with the Iranian people but with the regime that oppresses and impoverishes them.

Analysis and Perspectives

• Benam Ben Taliblau (Foundation for Defense of Democracies):
  • Iran's retaliation may be an attempt to "save face without losing its head."
  • The regime may be looking to "spill blood this time" compared to previous attacks.
  • Israeli strikes are seen as part of a larger campaign to shape Iran's decision-making.
  • Attacks could drive Iran to build a bomb to prevent future attacks.
• Tanya Kramer (DW Correspondent):
  • The situation remains tense, with people advised to stay near bomb shelters.
  • The Israeli government suggests the operation could take days or longer.
  • Netanyahu's address to the Iranian people is not unprecedented but comes at a critical time.
  • The attacks on high-ranking military officials suggest a message beyond simply targeting nuclear sites.
  • It's too early to determine if a window of opportunity for regime change has opened.

Technical Aspects and Damage Assessment

• Nuclear Program Dispersion: Iran's nuclear program is significantly dispersed across the country.
• Battle Damage Assessment: A full battle damage assessment is still pending, likely to come from foreign press relying on government sources.
• IAEA Reports: Earlier IAEA reports indicated no military action towards uranium conversion sites like Fordow.
• Crown Jewel: Questions remain about the status of the Fordow facility and a third new enrichment site.
• IDF Claims: IDF footage shows attacks on surface-to-air missile launchers and a military airport.

International Response

• Calls for De-escalation: World leaders are calling for an immediate de-escalation from both sides to prevent a larger conflict.
• Jordan's Role: Jordan intercepted drones in its airspace and advised citizens to stay indoors.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The situation between Israel and Iran is highly volatile, marked by significant military actions and retaliatory strikes. Israel's "Operation Rising Lion" aims to dismantle Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities, while Iran's response indicates a willingness to escalate. The potential for a larger conflict remains a serious concern, prompting international calls for de-escalation. The long-term consequences of these events, including the possibility of regime change in Iran, are still uncertain.