Do election campaigns actually work? | Swingers Part 4

Key Concepts

• Campaign Trail: The journey politicians undertake during an election, involving photo ops, press conferences, and carefully staged events.
• Marginal Seats: Electoral districts where the competition between candidates is very close, making them crucial for winning elections.
• Advancers: Political staffers who scout locations, plan events, and ensure they run smoothly for the politician.
• Photo Op (Pigfac): A planned event designed to generate positive media coverage and images for a political campaign.
• The Grid: A set of key issues (local employment, education, health) that a political party focuses on during a campaign to stay on message.
• Issue Ownership: The perception that a particular political party is better equipped to handle a specific issue.
• Negative Campaigning: A strategy that focuses on criticizing the opponent rather than promoting one's own policies.
• Swing Voters: Voters who are undecided and can be persuaded to vote for either party.
• Traditional Media vs. Digital Media: The shift from relying on newspapers and television to using social media and online platforms for campaign communication.
• Risk Aversion: The tendency of political campaigns to avoid bold policies and controversial statements in order to minimize potential backlash.

Campaign Events and Staging

• Purpose: Campaigns aim to secure the best possible photos and set the news agenda.
• Advancers' Role: They are the "roadies" of politics, ensuring events showcase the politician in the best light. They scout locations, meet with locals, and map out the politician's activities.
• Example: Setting up a market visit for the Prime Minister to open a new market.
• Secrecy: Campaigns maintain secrecy to control the environment and prevent the opposition from reacting.
• Example: Journalists only finding out about a boat trip 15 minutes before boarding.

The Role of Advancers

• Responsibilities: Scouting locations, finding friendly people for handshakes, and identifying potential risks.
• Authenticity: Advancers aim to create an appearance of authenticity, even if the interactions are planned.
• Risk Mitigation: Identifying and avoiding potentially damaging photo opportunities.
• Examples:
  • Avoiding a "reject" sign behind Tony Abbott.
  • Preventing politicians from eating on camera or playing sports.
• Golden Rules:
  • Don't let the politician eat anything on camera.
  • Don't let the politician play sport.
• Consequences of Mistakes: A slip-up can negate days of hard work and negatively impact public perception.
• Example: Bill Shorten eating a sausage sizzle sideways, which was perceived negatively.

Campaign Strategy and Tactics

• Focus on Marginal Seats: Campaigns concentrate resources on seats with the smallest margins, believing the leader's presence can influence voters.
• Local Media: Getting the local candidate on the news in their electorate is a key strategy.
• Issue Manipulation: Parties try to neutralize issues they don't own and focus on those they do.
• Example: Labor emphasizing Medicare, while the Coalition matched their funding announcement.
• Risk Aversion: Campaigns are increasingly risk-averse, avoiding bold policies to minimize potential criticism.
• The Grid: Sticking to core issues like local employment, education, and health.
• Distraction: The opponent's goal is to distract from the grid and focus on their strengths.
• Negative Campaigning: Focusing on criticizing the opponent rather than promoting one's own policies.

The Media's Role

• Press Conferences: The main opportunity for journalists to hold leaders accountable.
• Controlled Environment: Campaigns try to control the message and images that come out of events.
• Limited Access: Secrecy and limited access restrict the information available to journalists.
• Pushback: Journalists push back to get maximum information from political leaders.

The Changing Media Landscape

• Traditional Media Decline: Legacy media is less influential than it used to be.
• Digital Media Rise: Campaigns are increasingly using digital media, social media, podcasts, and influencers to reach voters directly.
• Retail vs. Informative: Shift towards engaging in trends and creating viral content rather than providing in-depth information.
• Partisanship and Oversimplification: The decline of journalism can lead to increased partisanship and oversimplification of issues.

Historical Examples

• 1993 Fightback Campaign (Liberals): John Hewson's complex economic policy, including a 15% GST, backfired due to public confusion and Labor's effective opposition.
• Key Moment: Hewson's inability to explain the cost of cake icing in a TV interview.
• Lessons Learned: Campaigns learned to withhold policies until the last minute to avoid scrutiny.

The Impact of Campaigns

• Limited Impact: Campaigns often have a limited impact, with both sides canceling each other out.
• Key Elections: Campaigns can matter significantly in certain elections, such as 1993, 2001, and 2019.
• Swing Voters: A record high number of swing voters are present, making campaigns potentially more impactful.

Conclusion

Australian election campaigns are highly choreographed and risk-averse, focused on controlling the message and minimizing potential damage. While traditional media still plays a role, digital media is increasingly important. The impact of campaigns can be limited, but they can be decisive in certain elections. The system prioritizes stability, which can come at the cost of bold policies and progress. Despite the criticisms, the Australian electoral system is generally viewed positively for its stability and fairness.