Divorce Italian style: Meloni-Trump row bringing Europe closer together? • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Trump Whispering: The diplomatic strategy of attempting to influence or maintain a close, informal relationship with Donald Trump through flattery and personal rapport.
• Operation Epic Fury: A US-led military campaign against Iran, involving the use of international bases, including those in Italy.
• Strategic Autonomy: The concept of European nations (specifically France and Italy) reducing reliance on US military and economic support to pursue independent foreign policy.
• Shadow Tankers: Vessels used to bypass international sanctions, often transporting oil from Russia.
• Incumbent Fatigue: A political phenomenon where voters grow dissatisfied with the current administration, creating opportunities for populist challengers.
• Quirinal Treaty: A bilateral agreement between France and Italy aimed at strengthening cooperation in defense, security, and diplomacy.

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1. The Shift in Italy-US Relations

The relationship between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and US President Donald Trump has deteriorated significantly. The tension peaked following the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, where Trump publicly claimed Meloni "begged" for a selfie. Meloni responded via social media, stating, "Neither I nor Italy ever beg," marking a definitive break from her previous role as a "bridge" between the EU and the Trump administration.

• Key Argument: Analysts suggest Meloni is distancing herself from Trump because his demands (e.g., active participation in the conflict with Iran) have become a political liability in Italy.
• Supporting Evidence: Meloni’s pivot toward a more pro-European stance, evidenced by her bilateral summit with Emmanuel Macron in Antibes, indicates a strategic realignment.

2. The "Trump Whispering" Strategy

The panel discussed whether the strategy of "Trump whispering"—using flattery to manage the US President—is still viable.

• The Macron Approach: President Macron has utilized flattery to ensure summits (like the one in Evian) remain stable and to secure specific agreements, such as the memorandum of understanding regarding Iran.
• The NATO Perspective: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has faced criticism for publicly highlighting Italy’s logistical support for "Operation Epic Fury" (500 US planes taking off from Italian bases). This was viewed as "throwing Meloni under the bus," as it contradicted her domestic narrative that Italy was not actively participating in the campaign.

3. Geopolitical Realignment and Defense

• The Lebanon Mission: France and Italy are discussing a potential coalition to replace the UNIFIL framework in Lebanon. This is framed as a move toward "European defense," as both nations seek to assert regional influence independent of the US.
• Hard Power: The French Navy’s interception of a Russian "shadow tanker" off the coast of Sicily serves as a display of hard power and a signal of Franco-Italian cooperation.
• Economic Constraints: Both Italy and France face significant national debt, making it difficult to meet the increased defense spending demands often requested by the US.

4. Domestic Political Challenges

• The Rise of the "Right of the Far-Right": In Italy, former army general Roberto Vannacci has launched the Futuro Nazionale party. He is adopting the same anti-establishment, pro-Russian, and anti-migration rhetoric that propelled Meloni to power, creating a threat to her right flank.
• The Berlusconi Vacuum: Following the death of Silvio Berlusconi, Meloni is attempting to capture the moderate center-right vote. However, analysts like Anna Bonalume and Pietro Forti question if she can successfully transition from a far-right firebrand to a moderate Christian Democratic leader without alienating her base.
• The "Marine Le Pen" Pivot: Similar to Meloni, French politician Marine Le Pen has pivoted away from her previous public admiration of Trump, acknowledging that in international affairs, "we don't have friends... we have interests."

5. Notable Quotes

• Giorgia Meloni: "Neither I nor Italy ever beg." (In response to Trump’s claims about the G7 summit).
• Marine Le Pen: "We don't have friends in international affairs... We have interests."
• Richard Werly: "The only way to get something out of Donald Trump is to flatter him."

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The consensus among the panelists is that the era of European leaders relying on personal "Trump whispering" is coming to an end. The combination of Trump’s unpredictable nature, his perceived misogyny toward female leaders, and the shifting political winds in Europe has forced leaders like Meloni to prioritize national interests and European cooperation over personal ties to the US administration. As Italy and France approach upcoming elections, the ability to balance domestic populist pressures with the necessity of independent European defense will be the defining challenge for their respective leaderships.