Stanford Leadership Forum 2026: Conversation with Rishi Sunak

Key Concepts

• International Rules-Based Order: The transition from a stable, US-led global framework to a more unpredictable, multipolar environment.
• Hard Power: The renewed necessity for nations to invest in military and strategic capabilities.
• Everyday AI: The focus on the broad diffusion and practical application of AI across society rather than just the race for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
• Technology Diffusion: The historical concept that the economic benefits of a technology often accrue to those who adopt and integrate it effectively, rather than those who invent it.
• Crisis Leadership: The importance of decision-making under uncertainty, effective communication, and maintaining self-awareness to avoid the trap of self-pity.
• Dharma: The concept of performing one's duty with focus, while detaching from the anxiety of outcomes.

1. The Shifting International Order

Rishi Sunak argues that the post-WWII international order is not merely being renegotiated but has fundamentally changed. He identifies several defining features of this new era:

• End of Pax Americana: The US is redefining its global role, and for the first time, faces a peer competitor in China that is deeply integrated into the global economy.
• Rise of Swing States: Nations like India are charting independent paths, refusing to align strictly with traditional blocs.
• Axis of Cooperation: Increased collaboration between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea creates significant security challenges for Europe.
• Return of Hard Power: Sunak emphasizes that leaders must accept this unpredictable reality and prioritize investment in hard power to ensure national security.

2. The US-UK Special Relationship

Sunak characterizes the US-UK alliance as a "deep pyramid" of cooperation. While personal relationships between leaders (such as his own with President Biden) are beneficial, the alliance is anchored by:

• Operational Depth: Decades of shared intelligence, military, and security cooperation.
• Shared Values: A historical commitment to defending against authoritarianism.
• Resilience: The relationship is robust enough to survive individual personality clashes or temporary policy misalignments.

3. European Economic Growth

Sunak provides a stark diagnosis of Europe’s economic stagnation compared to the US:

• The Gap: Over the last 12 years, the US economy has outperformed Europe by approximately one-third.
• GDP Per Capita: If Europe were a US state, it would be the poorest, trailing the average US state by $10,000 per head.
• Implementation Failure: Referencing the Mario Draghi report, Sunak notes that while the diagnosis of the problem is clear, political systems often struggle to implement necessary reforms because of the difficulty of getting re-elected after enacting painful structural changes.

4. The AI Paradox and Diffusion

Sunak describes the current moment as a "paradox": it is the most dangerous geopolitical period in recent history, yet simultaneously the most transformational due to AI.

• The "Everyday AI" Race: He argues that the most important race is not for AGI, but for who can best spread AI’s benefits across their economy.
• Historical Lesson (The Printing Press): Citing Jeffrey Ding’s Technology and Great Powers, Sunak explains that Germany invented the printing press, but the Dutch benefited most because they possessed superior institutional infrastructure:
  • Openness: Lack of restrictive censorship.
  • Market Structure: Absence of restrictive guilds/unions.
  • Capital Markets: Ability to hedge volatile costs.
• Actionable Insight: Leaders should focus on building the "diffusion infrastructure" that allows their organizations or countries to integrate technology effectively.

5. AI Regulation and Security

Sunak advocates for a balanced approach to AI governance:

• Avoid Heavy-Handed Regulation: He warns against premature, top-down legislation that could stifle innovation, noting that the EU’s AI Act may have been too restrictive.
• The "Bletchley" Model: He highlights the success of the AI Safety Summit series, which brought together developers and world leaders.
• Technical Expertise: The UK established an independent AI Security Institute to evaluate models for cyber, bio, and nuclear risks before public release, rather than acting as a traditional regulator.
• Winning Public Trust: He emphasizes that the public currently views AI with fear; leaders must demonstrate that they are managing risks to ensure the technology is adopted.

6. Reflections on Crisis Leadership

Reflecting on his time as Chancellor during the COVID-19 pandemic, Sunak shared three core leadership lessons:

1. Avoid Self-Pity: When faced with unprecedented challenges (like a failed gilt auction), leaders must move past the "why me?" mentality and focus on their duty.
2. Decisiveness: In the absence of perfect information, leaders must trust their judgment and act, as inaction is often more damaging than an imperfect decision.
3. Communication: "You can never over-communicate." In a crisis, the leader’s primary role is to provide reassurance through clear, consistent explanation.

Conclusion

The conversation concludes with Sunak’s shift toward social mobility through his new educational foundation, the Richmond Project, which focuses on improving numeracy. His overarching message is that while political titles are temporary, leaders must remain anchored to their core values and focus on the "duty" of their role, regardless of the specific office they hold.