Deliberate or collateral? David Des Roches analyses Russia’s targeting of civilians in Ukraine

Key Concepts

• Indiscriminate Targeting: The practice of attacking civilian areas without distinguishing between military and non-military objectives.
• Oreshnik Missile: A high-altitude, high-speed Russian missile system described as "indefensible" due to its trajectory and velocity.
• Intercept Debris/Malfunction: The technical possibility that civilian damage is caused by falling debris from intercepted missiles or malfunctioning interceptor systems.
• Existential War: A conflict where the survival of a regime or state is at stake, driving the intensity of military operations.
• Tit-for-Tat Strategy: A retaliatory cycle where one side responds to an attack with a counter-attack of similar nature or intensity.

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1. Analysis of Russian Targeting Patterns

David DeRoshe, former Pentagon NATO operations director, evaluates the recent Russian strikes on Ukrainian residential areas. He outlines three technical possibilities for civilian damage:

• Direct Hit: An intentional strike on a civilian target.
• Intercept Debris: Debris from a successfully intercepted missile falling on a residential area.
• Interceptor Malfunction: An interceptor missile failing and striking a civilian area.

DeRoshe concludes that while these technical accidents are possible, the historical pattern of Russian behavior—characterized by a disregard for the Law of Armed Conflict (e.g., Bucha)—suggests that the recent destruction is likely deliberate targeting.

2. Weaponry and Strategic Shifts

• Missile vs. Drone: The scale of destruction indicates the use of high-end missiles rather than drones.
• Trajectory Tactics: Russia is utilizing high-altitude, high-velocity trajectories to bypass air defense systems. DeRoshe notes that the higher the altitude and the faster the missile, the more difficult it is to intercept, as interceptor assets must be nearly co-located with the target to be effective.
• The Oreshnik Missile: Cited as a primary example of Russia’s "indefensible" arsenal, capable of being used in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) exchanges.
• Tactical Retaliation: DeRoshe argues these strikes are not a new strategic shift but rather tactical retaliation for recent Ukrainian successes, such as the strike on the school in Starobilsk.

3. Ukrainian Response Capabilities

Ukraine maintains a distinct military doctrine compared to Russia, focusing on:

• Military Infrastructure: Targeting assets far from the front lines, such as the destruction of two maritime patrol aircraft at Taganrog airfield.
• Logistics and Economy: Attacking the Russian oil industry in the Sea of Azov and targeting the critical supply highway that sustains the Russian occupation of Crimea.
• Strategic Intent: Ukraine views the degradation of Russian logistics and energy infrastructure as a highly productive strategy to weaken the Russian presence in occupied territories.

4. Future Outlook and Geopolitical Dynamics

• Escalation: DeRoshe predicts an intensification of the conflict. He characterizes Vladimir Putin’s position as an "existential war," suggesting that a ceasefire would only serve as a tactical pause for Russia to "reconstitute" and improve its military strategy.
• NATO and European Stance: Despite the lack of peace negotiations, NATO remains steadfast. DeRoshe highlights that Eastern European nations (Poland, the Baltic states) view the conflict as an existential threat to their own sovereignty.
• US-NATO Relations: While there is "brinksmanship" regarding European defense spending, DeRoshe asserts that American interests remain fundamentally aligned with NATO, ensuring continued support.

5. Notable Quotes

• "The first rule of missile defense is what goes up must come down." — David DeRoshe, regarding the ambiguity of missile debris.
• "He [Putin] attacked stupid originally. The next attack will be smart. All the stupid generals are dead on the Russian side." — DeRoshe, emphasizing the evolution of Russian military leadership and the danger of a potential ceasefire.

Synthesis

The conflict is currently defined by a cycle of Russian high-altitude missile strikes—likely intended to terrorize civilian populations—and targeted Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and logistical infrastructure. DeRoshe posits that the war is entering a more dangerous phase where Russia is refining its tactical approach, while Ukraine continues to focus on severing the supply lines to Crimea. NATO’s commitment remains firm, driven by the perception of an existential threat to the alliance's eastern flank, making a near-term diplomatic resolution unlikely.