REPLAY: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte Press Conference from Brussels • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• NATO Summit in Ankara: Upcoming meeting to address evolving security threats, review deterrence and defense efforts, and discuss progress on key decisions.
• NATO Ukraine Council: Forum for discussions with Ukraine and the EU on security challenges.
• Evolving Threats: Including Russia's actions and China's role as an enabler for Russia.
• Defense Investment Pledge: Allies agreed to invest 5% of GDP on defense, with 3.5% on core defense spending.
• Production Capacity: Emphasis on scaling up production to meet demand for military equipment.
• Ukraine's Security: Recognition of the link between NATO and Ukraine's security, and efforts towards a just and lasting peace.
• Hybrid and Cyber Threats: Acknowledgment of these as current realities requiring a revised hybrid strategy.
• Peace Negotiations: US-led efforts to find a peace plan for Ukraine, with ongoing discussions involving Ukraine and Russia.
• NATO Membership for Ukraine: Acknowledged as a principle, but currently no consensus among allies for immediate membership.
• Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Discussions on long-term security arrangements post-ceasefire or peace deal.
• PEARL Initiative: A program to procure essential military equipment for Ukraine, particularly from the US.
• Black Sea Security: Concerns raised regarding safety and security in the Black Sea due to Russian actions.
• Kosovo Dialogue: EU-led dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, with NATO's indirect involvement.

NATO Summit and Evolving Threats

The upcoming NATO summit in Ankara in July will focus on addressing evolving security threats. Key discussions will include reviewing actions taken to strengthen deterrence and defense. The NATO Ukraine Council will convene with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and the EU High Representative Josep Borrell to examine these threats, particularly Russia's actions, and assess progress on decisions made at the previous summit in The Hague.

Defense Investment and Production

A significant outcome of the The Hague summit was the agreement for allies to invest 5% of their GDP on defense, with 3.5% allocated to core defense spending. This commitment aims to provide armed forces with necessary equipment, including aircraft, tanks, ships, drones, and cyber and space capabilities. The transcript emphasizes that increasing investment is only effective if supply matches demand, necessitating a rapid scaling up of production capacity across NATO. This is viewed as a win-win for societies, bolstering security, prosperity, and creating jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.

Ukraine's Security and Peace Efforts

NATO recognizes that its security is deeply linked to Ukraine's. Efforts are underway to bring the war against Ukraine to an end with a just and lasting peace. The United States' ongoing peace initiatives are welcomed, with confidence that sustained efforts will restore peace in Europe. The NATO Ukraine Council meeting will include Ukraine's Foreign Minister and the EU High Representative to discuss the evolving threats and challenges, including Russia's "brutal architects" against Ukraine, such as attacks on infrastructure. China's role as a "decisive enabler" and North Korea's support for Russia are also noted. The PEARL initiative, providing billions of dollars in essential US equipment to Ukraine, is highlighted as crucial for Ukraine's defense and deterrence of future aggression. Further contributions are expected from allies in the coming days.

Addressing Drone Threats in Romania

In response to concerns about drones falling on Romanian territory, NATO is enhancing its capabilities on the eastern flank. This includes improving drone production and acquiring the latest anti-drone technology. The Joint Support and Enabling Command (JSEC) in Poland is facilitating the sharing of lessons learned, particularly from Ukraine's experience in the war.

Peace Negotiations and NATO's Role

Regarding peace negotiations for Ukraine, the transcript clarifies that any NATO-related elements of a deal will be handled separately and will involve NATO. The US-led peace plan proposals are seen as a necessary starting point, with ongoing talks in Geneva, Miami, and with the Russian side. The 28-point plan is considered an initial draft, and the process has moved beyond it. While there is no consensus for Ukraine's immediate NATO membership, the principle of the Washington Treaty remains. Discussions are ongoing about long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, potentially involving a coalition of the willing led by France and the United Kingdom, and US participation in these guarantees.

Hybrid and Cyber Warfare

NATO acknowledges that its security faces conventional and hybrid threats. Leaders at The Hague agreed on a revised hybrid strategy to confront these realities, including cyber warfare. While specific actions cannot always be disclosed, the strategy aims to ensure safety and security.

PEARL Initiative and Defense Industrial Production

The PEARL initiative is on track to procure approximately $4 billion in essential gear for Ukraine by the end of the year, with a target of $1 billion per month for the following year. This equipment is crucial as Europe lacks sufficient production capacity or stockpiles. The initiative includes both offensive and defensive elements. Discussions are underway among foreign ministers to ensure its sustainability, with about two-thirds of the alliance participating. Proposals are being put forth to move beyond a "cap in hand" approach to a more secure footing for next year. The defense industrial production is being ramped up, with contributions from countries like Norway, the Netherlands, and Canada.

Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Discussions are ongoing regarding security guarantees for Ukraine post-ceasefire or peace deal. This includes the "coalition of the willing" under French and UK leadership, and US participation. The aim is to ensure Ukraine is supported in a way that prevents future Russian aggression, learning from the mistakes of the Minsk agreements. These guarantees will build upon Ukraine's armed forces as the primary layer of defense.

Air Defense Systems for Ukraine

Air defense systems for Ukraine, including interceptors, are a central focus of the PEARL initiative. The goal is to protect Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure from Russian attacks. Efforts are being made to do more in this regard, with air defense remaining high on the agenda.

NATO's Commitment to Ukraine's Membership

NATO stands by its 2008 Bucharest declaration that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, and the Washington summit outcome stated an "irreversible path" for Ukraine into NATO. However, it is acknowledged that there is currently no unanimity among allies regarding Ukraine's immediate accession. This practical reality influences discussions on future peace deals and how Ukraine can be protected if not through NATO membership.

Black Sea Security and Turkish Concerns

Reports of shadow fleet ships being struck by uncrewed vessels in the Black Sea are noted, along with concerns expressed by Turkey about safety in the region. This incident is seen as further evidence of the broader security risks posed by Russia's war against Ukraine.

Summit in Ankara and Deliverables

The upcoming summit in Ankara is expected to be a significant event. While the exact outcomes will be decided later, key elements will include follow-up on defense spending commitments to reach 5% of GDP and the ramping up of defense industrial production, potentially utilizing Turkey's defense industry. The hope is for a peace deal or full ceasefire in Ukraine before the summit. If not, allies will continue to ensure Ukraine has what it needs to remain strong in the fight and in potential peace negotiations.

Kosovo Situation and Dialogue

Regarding Kosovo, there is a continued call for accountability for perpetrators of attacks in 2023. The Serbian authorities are urged to play their part in this respect. The dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo is EU-led, with NATO involved indirectly through KFOR, aiming to be as helpful as possible.

Assessment of Peace Negotiations

Predicting the success of current peace negotiations is difficult. While the Americans are making significant efforts, it requires both sides to engage ("two to tango"). The high human cost of the war ("meat grinder") underscores the urgency to end it. The Ukrainians are seen as willing to play ball and appreciative of the US peace effort, but the willingness of the Russians to engage is currently being tested. There is confidence in the US process, which involves close coordination with Europeans and NATO allies, and a concern that a deal at the cost of Ukraine or Europe is unlikely.