Could tensions over the hostage bodies threaten the Israel-Hamas ceasefire? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Hostage Recovery and Ceasefire Negotiations: The inability of Hamas to recover more Israeli hostage bodies due to a lack of specialized equipment is creating friction in ongoing ceasefire talks.
• Phase One vs. Phase Two of Ceasefire: The current crisis is seen as an early hurdle in the transition from Phase One (hostage/prisoner exchanges) to Phase Two (decommissioning, demilitarization, international stabilization force, technocratic government).
• Incentives for Both Sides: Hamas has an incentive to return hostages as they become a liability, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is motivated to avoid crossing Donald Trump.
• Hamas's Consolidation of Power: Hamas is actively working to re-establish administrative control and public order in areas vacated by Israeli forces, by cracking down on rival militias and groups perceived to have collaborated with Israel.
• Challenges of an International Stabilization Force: Deploying an international force faces significant hurdles, including the reluctance of Arab and Muslim countries to engage in a conflict zone where Hamas is still armed and Israeli forces remain present.
• Irreconcilable End Goals: The fundamental conflict lies in the mutually exclusive end goals of the Netanyahu government (eradication of Hamas) and Hamas (survival and influence in Gaza).

Hamas's Inability to Recover Hostage Bodies

Hamas has stated that it cannot recover any more bodies of Israeli hostages without specialized equipment to clear rubble. This announcement follows the arrival of the remains of two more hostages in Israel. The situation is further complicated by Israel's confirmation that one of the bodies handed over earlier in the week was not that of a hostage.

Impact on Ceasefire Negotiations and Aid Deliveries

The slow return of hostage bodies has led to Israeli threats to reduce the number of aid trucks permitted to enter Gaza, even as aid deliveries have begun. The UN has urged Israel to open all crossings into Gaza, as stipulated by the US-backed ceasefire agreement. Notably, Israel has not yet opened the Rafah crossing with Egypt, which is Gaza's only crossing not controlled by Israel.

Analysis of the Crisis and Future Phases

Aaron David Miller, a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the implications of this crisis. He views it as the "first crisis in an inevitable series of crisis" given the mutual desire for destruction between the two parties and the absence of direct negotiations.

Key Points from Miller's Analysis:

• Derailing Potential: The issue of bodies could "block to some degree transition from phase one to phase two" of the ceasefire.
• Phase Two Complexity: Phase Two involves decommissioning and demilitarization of Gaza, the deployment of an international stabilization force, and the formation of a technocratic government. Miller emphasizes that these are long-term objectives.
• Overcoming the Hurdle: Miller believes this specific issue will likely be overcome but will cause "broken crockery," particularly for the Israeli side.
• US and Israeli Alignment: Miller suggests the US and Israeli governments are on the same page regarding patience due to two primary reasons:
  1. Hamas's Incentive: Hostages are no longer an asset but a liability for Hamas, especially with ongoing public order issues and rivalries within Gaza.
  2. Netanyahu's Constraint: Prime Minister Netanyahu is unlikely to "cross Donald Trump," implying external pressure to adhere to the agreement.
• End of Major Offensive: Miller posits that "the war, as we've known it over the past two years, I think more or less is over."

Hamas's Role in Public Order and Consolidation of Strength

The transcript questions whether Hamas is genuinely trying to maintain public order or consolidating its strength during the transition period. Miller's perspective is that it's "all of the above."

Hamas's Actions and Motivations:

• Demonstrating Survival: Hamas needs to show it has survived and can extend administrative control through intimidation and co-optation in areas vacated by Israeli forces.
• Maintaining Law and Order: With Israeli forces redeployed from urban areas, Hamas is the only entity that can "pretend to suggest they have capacity to maintain law and order."
• Cracking Down on Rivals: Hamas is actively cracking down on militias like the dogmush clans and Abu Shabbabs, and any groups perceived to have collaborated with the Israelis, in order to consolidate its control.

Challenges of an International Stabilization Force

The concept of deploying an international force to create enclaves free of Hamas is discussed as being "tricky in reality."

Obstacles to Deployment:

• Reluctance of Arab/Muslim Forces: Arab security forces from any Arab or Muslim country (including Turkey and Indonesia) are unlikely to deploy if Hamas remains weaponized and Israeli forces are still present.
• Avoiding Conflict: These forces do not want to be in a position of shooting Palestinians or supporting Israeli actions against Palestinians.
• "Unentable Situation": Miller describes the current situation as "unentable," stemming from the "mutually irreconcilable" end goals of the Netanyahu government and Hamas.

Irreconcilable End Goals

The core of the conflict, according to Miller, lies in the fundamental differences in what each side wants to achieve in Gaza:

• Hamas's Goal: To survive with the capacity to influence events in Gaza.
• Israeli Government's Goal: To eradicate Hamas as a military force and undermine its political influence.

Miller concludes that he "don't have an answer" on how to bridge this gap.

Conclusion

The current crisis surrounding the recovery of Israeli hostage bodies highlights the deep-seated challenges and conflicting objectives in the Gaza conflict. While immediate pressures might lead to temporary agreements, the fundamental divergence in end goals between Hamas and the Israeli government, coupled with the complexities of international intervention and internal power dynamics within Gaza, suggests a prolonged and difficult path towards any lasting resolution. The transition to Phase Two of the ceasefire is fraught with obstacles, and the ability of external actors to bridge the gap between the warring parties remains highly uncertain.