Chris Vermeulen: 'Very Bearish for 2026' | The Path to $7500 Gold and $100 Silver

Key Concepts

• Parabolic Phase: A rapid, unsustainable increase in price, often signaling a market top.
• Magnificent 7: The seven largest technology companies (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta) driving significant market gains.
• Banner Cycle: A cyclical pattern in financial markets suggesting potential turning points, with 2026 identified as a potentially significant year.
• Inverse ETF: An exchange-traded fund designed to profit from a decline in the underlying asset.
• Fibonacci Levels: Technical analysis tools used to identify potential support and resistance levels based on the Fibonacci sequence.
• VIX (Volatility Index): A measure of market expectations of volatility over the next 30 days.
• Sentiment Analysis: Assessing investor attitudes (bullish or bearish) to gauge market direction.
• Stage One Base: An initial consolidation phase in a stock or market, indicating potential for future growth.

Precious Metals & Market Outlook – Christopher Mullen Interview Summary

This summary details the insights shared by Christopher Mullen, Chief Market Strategist for technicaltraders.com, during an interview on Telescold Radio regarding precious metals, the broader market, and potential investment strategies.

I. Current Precious Metals Volatility & Potential Peak

Mullen observed significant volatility in precious metals on December 29th, with gold down 4%, silver down 6.5%, platinum and platium plummeting (up to 20% for platium). He interprets this as a potential sign of exhaustion following a substantial rally, indicating a possible peak in the precious metals market. He noted silver had hit a target of $82 before reversing based on a Fibonacci level. While acknowledging the possibility of further gains (another 20-30%), he emphasized the increased risk and the need for careful risk management. He stressed the importance of having a strategy in place to protect capital if the market reverses, highlighting the potential for significant declines (60-70% in past cycles).

II. The Parabolic Phase & Equity Market Disconnect

Mullen believes the market is currently in a “bubble phase” characterized by instability. He presented a comparative analysis of the S&P 500 and gold, noting a similarity to the 2007-2008 period. However, he points out a key difference: the current rally is largely driven by the “Magnificent 7” tech companies, preventing the typical stock market pullback that historically fueled precious metal gains. He believes this disconnect suggests both the stock market and precious metals are nearing a peak. Charts of gold/silver miners, silver, platinum, and platium showed a similar “blowoff top” pattern to previous cycles.

III. Identifying Market Tops & Reversals

Mullen emphasizes the importance of price action over news events. He explains that market reversals are signaled by a 10-11% rally followed by a 12% sell-off, indicating greed and fear and instability. He cautions against attempting to “pick a top,” instead advocating for waiting for a clear trend reversal and bearish price action before exiting positions. He illustrated this with a comparison of the current market to the tariff selloff earlier in the year and the CO chart, demonstrating similar patterns. He highlighted the importance of volume in confirming reversals, noting high volume selling as a bearish signal.

IV. The 2026 Banner Cycle & Economic Outlook

Mullen discussed the “Banner Cycle,” predicting a potentially challenging economic environment in 2026, mirroring the conditions of 2007. He anticipates a need to lock in profits across various asset classes. He believes the stock market will likely top out before the economic downturn fully manifests, with the stock market leading the economic data. He expects a breakdown in the Magnificent 7 to trigger a broader market sell-off.

V. Investment Strategies & Asset Class Preferences

Despite his cautious outlook, Mullen doesn’t advocate for complete market avoidance. He currently favors:

• Equities: He believes equities still have some upside, particularly given the positive seasonality in January (a positive January candle often indicates a strong year).
• Gold: He remains bullish on gold, believing it will hold its value and potentially push higher.
• US Dollar: Surprisingly, he sees potential in the US dollar, anticipating a rebound from its current levels.
• Cash: He emphasizes the importance of holding cash to capitalize on opportunities during a market correction.
• Inverse ETFs: He plans to utilize inverse ETFs to profit from a potential bear market.

He dislikes platinum, platium, and silver in the short term, given their recent volatility and potential for further declines.

VI. Oil & Gas Sector Analysis

Mullen is bearish on the oil and gas sector, citing a downward trend and a potential drop to $45 per barrel. He believes a decline in oil prices will be a leading indicator of a broader economic slowdown. He would need to see higher highs and higher lows in oil prices, coupled with strength in energy stocks, to become bullish on the sector. He noted that energy stocks are currently holding up despite falling oil prices, potentially indicating a disconnect.

VII. Volatility & The VIX

Mullen anticipates significant volatility in 2026. He notes that the current low VIX (Volatility Index) is a warning sign, indicating complacency in the market. He utilizes a strategy of selling options to benefit from declining volatility but acknowledges the potential for large VIX spikes.

Notable Quote:

“When the VIX is low, it's time to go.” – Christopher Mullen, emphasizing the warning signal of low market volatility.

Conclusion:

Mullen presents a cautious yet pragmatic outlook, anticipating a potential market correction in 2026. He stresses the importance of technical analysis, risk management, and a flexible investment strategy. He advocates for a diversified approach, including equities, gold, cash, and potentially inverse ETFs, while remaining wary of overvalued sectors like platinum, platium, and silver. His core message is to prepare for volatility, protect capital, and position oneself to profit from the inevitable market cycle.