China's Xi and India's Modi staying away from ASEAN summit | DW News

Key Concepts

• Expanded Ceasefire Agreement: A formalized agreement between Thailand and Cambodia to end border fighting.
• Heavy Weapons Removal: A key component of the ceasefire, involving the withdrawal of significant weaponry from the border region.
• Demining Activities: Joint efforts by Thailand and Cambodia to clear landmines along their shared border.
• Cybercrime Fighting: A commitment to combat illegal online activities in the border region.
• ASEAN Observer Group: A group from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations tasked with monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.
• Border Dispute: The unresolved issue of the exact demarcation of the Thailand-Cambodia border, which has led to conflict and displacement.
• Economic Crisis: The negative impact of the border dispute on trade and economic activities between Thailand and Cambodia.
• US Tariffs: Trade barriers imposed by the US on goods from various countries, affecting Southeast Asian economies.
• Trade Deals: Agreements made between nations to facilitate trade, including those between the US and Southeast Asian countries.
• Regional Cooperation and Stability: Key priorities for ASEAN, aiming to strengthen economic ties and maintain peace in the region.
• Code of Conduct on the South China Sea: An initiative by ASEAN to establish rules and guidelines for behavior in the South China Sea.
• Geopolitical Interests: The strategic and political aims of nations in their international relations.
• Trade War: A conflict between countries involving the imposition of tariffs and other trade barriers.
• De-escalation: The process of reducing tensions and conflict.

Expanded Ceasefire Agreement Between Thailand and Cambodia

Main Topics and Key Points

The leaders of Thailand and Cambodia have signed an expanded ceasefire agreement at a summit of Southeast Asian nations in Kuala Lumpur. This agreement was formalized shortly after US President Donald Trump arrived in Malaysia, and he co-signed the deal, having helped to broker it. In July, Trump had threatened to block trade with Cambodia and Thailand if they did not cease border fighting. The US president also struck trade deals with both nations. Many other leaders at the summit were hoping Trump would lower the tariffs he had imposed.

Gayog Matis, DW's Asia-Pacific bureau chief, reported from Kuala Lumpur that the joint declaration between Thailand and Cambodia includes several points expected to be relatively easy to realize.

• Removal of Heavy Weapons: This is identified as the key point. According to the Thai Foreign Minister, the release of 18 captured Cambodian prisoners is contingent upon the successful removal of heavy weapons.
• Demining Activities: The agreement includes provisions for joint demining efforts along the border.
• Fighting Cybercrime: The two countries have committed to combating the rise of cybercrime in the remote border region.

These initiatives are to be monitored by an ASEAN observer group, which Matis had previously met at the border. This group is expected to play a crucial role in ensuring that the commitments made in the declaration are realized on the ground.

Importance for Affected Communities

Matis highlighted two critical aspects of the truce agreement for the people living in the affected communities:

• Border Demarcation: The exact line of the border remains a "tricky and thorny issue" and is not resolved by the signed paper. Thailand has moved the border to what it considers its accurate location, which now includes some Cambodian houses, some of which have been demolished. This unresolved issue is a significant point of contention.
• Economic Crisis: The paper is considered "extremely helpful" in addressing the economic crisis caused by the border row. Both countries have strong connections, with many Cambodians seeking medical services and employment in Thailand. Thailand also exports a significant amount of products to Cambodia. The border dispute had halted these economic activities. The joint declaration is seen as a clear step towards de-escalating this "painful" economic crisis for both nations.

US President Donald Trump's Role

The presence and involvement of US President Donald Trump at the summit were significant.

• Facilitator of the Deal: Trump declared himself to be the "key man" who made the deal possible. Some observers agreed that he played a role by linking progress in the peace talks and the signing of the agreement to his tariffs and economic concerns, thereby increasing pressure on both sides to reach an accord.
• Prominent Role: The Thai Foreign Minister acknowledged Trump's "prominent role" but also emphasized that the joint declaration is a "pathway to peace," indicating that it is a stepping stone and that many "tricky issues" related to the age-old border dispute still need to be resolved.

US Tariffs and ASEAN's Economic Priorities

Impact of US Tariffs on ASEAN

ASEAN members have been significantly impacted by US tariffs. The summit provided an opportunity for these countries to address this issue.

• Seeking Concessions: Countries were actively trying to use President Trump's attendance to secure concessions. Cambodia announced plans to sign a deal with the US, Malaysia was set to do the same, and Thailand was signing a paper on rare minerals. The general sentiment was that nations were approaching the US president directly to create opt-outs or negotiate sectoral agreements to mitigate the impact of tariffs, which have severely affected Southeast Asian markets.
• US Commitment to Partnership: A key message from President Trump was his "100% behind Southeast Asian nations" and his desire for a "long and strong partnership." This message is seen as important, particularly in the context of the US needing to demonstrate its presence and commitment in a region where China's influence is strong, in order to compete effectively.

Priorities of the Summit

Megan Ryan, a foreign policy analyst focusing on Southeast Asia, outlined three main priorities for the summit:

• Trade: Strengthening internal ASEAN trade linkages and economic integration with important regional blocks outside the US and China, such as the Gulf States, BRICS countries, and other nations in the global south.
• Regional Cooperation and Stability:
  • Centering ASEAN countries on the global stage and asserting their autonomy, centrality, and geopolitical interests.
  • Finalizing a code of conduct on the South China Sea to maintain a rules-based order.
  • Providing a platform for the signing of the peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia.

Trade Negotiations and the US-China Trade War

The summit also served as a platform for discussions on trade beyond regional agreements.

• Opportunity for New Deals: The summit presented a significant opportunity for Southeast Asian nations to engage with President Trump for tariff relief.
• US-China Diplomatic Talks: On the sidelines of the formal ASEAN meetings, US and Chinese diplomats were holding talks about the trade war between their countries.
• Upcoming US-China Meeting: While Chinese President Xi Jinping was not attending the ASEAN summit, President Trump was expected to meet him in South Korea later that week. This direct meeting, rather than being part of the larger summit, was seen as a choice for a more neutral space to discuss the ongoing trade war.
• De-escalation Efforts: Given the current tensions, major breakthroughs in the trade war were considered unlikely. However, efforts to de-escalate the conflict and put the two countries on track for a future trade deal were possible. Potential outcomes could include a pause on rare earth export bans or tariffs, but this remained to be seen.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur marked a significant step towards de-escalating regional tensions, primarily through the expanded ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia. This agreement, brokered with US involvement, addresses immediate concerns like heavy weapons removal and demining, offering a crucial pathway to economic recovery for the affected border communities. However, the fundamental issue of border demarcation remains unresolved.

Concurrently, the summit served as a critical forum for Southeast Asian nations to navigate the complex landscape of US trade tariffs. Leaders actively sought to secure economic concessions and strengthen partnerships with the US, aiming to counterbalance China's influence in the region. The US president's commitment to a strong partnership with Southeast Asia was a key takeaway.

Furthermore, the summit provided a backdrop for crucial diplomatic exchanges, including discussions on the US-China trade war, with potential for de-escalation efforts and future trade agreements. The overarching themes of trade, regional cooperation, and stability underscored ASEAN's efforts to assert its autonomy and centrality on the global stage.