Can Europe Replace America’s F-35 Fighter Jet? | WSJ

Key Concepts:

• F-35 Fighter Jet: A fifth-generation fighter jet manufactured by Lockheed Martin.
• Arms Trade: The global industry that manufactures and sells weapons and military technology.
• Kill Switch: A hypothetical mechanism that would allow the US to remotely disable F-35 jets sold to other countries.
• Eurofighter, Rafale, Gripen: European-made fighter jet alternatives to the F-35.
• Stealth Technology: Technology that makes an aircraft difficult to detect by radar.
• F-47 Jet Fighter: Boeing's next-generation fighter jet, posing a potential threat to the F-35's market share.
• Combat Drone System: A system in which F-35s operate alongside unmanned aircraft.
• Tempest, FCAS: Next-generation European fighter jet projects.

F-35 Program Overview

• The F-35 program is projected to cost the US over $2 trillion over five decades, including production and maintenance.
• The F-35 is a successful export for the US, contributing to America's dominance in the arms trade.
• Each F-35 costs around $82 million, depending on the model and number of jets purchased.
• Buyers also pay Lockheed Martin for maintenance, pilot training, spare parts, and software updates.
• The Department of Defense has more than 600 jets and plans to increase that number to about 2,500 aircraft by the mid-2040s.
• Spending on sustaining this massive fleet will make up nearly 80% of the projected $2 trillion cost of the program.

Concerns and Challenges

• President Trump's temporary pause of intelligence sharing with Ukraine raised concerns about countries' dependency on the US for F-35 maintenance.
• Countries fear the US might stop supplying or updating their F-35s.
• There are fears about an alleged kill switch on the F-35, which the US and Lockheed Martin deny.
• Even without a kill switch, the US could make life difficult for operators by not supplying spare parts, expertise, and software updates.
• Canada is reviewing its planned acquisition of 88 F-35s due to changing geopolitics and a need to secure more defense production at home.
• Questions are being asked in some European countries, like Denmark, about the over alliance on the F-35.

European Alternatives

• Europe produces three types of jet fighters: the Eurofighter (built by a coalition of companies from the UK and the EU), the Rafale (built by France), and the Gripen (built by Sweden).
• The F-35 is considered a generation ahead of European rivals due to its stealth technology and more advanced sensors.
• The European fighters are combat-tested and very capable aircraft.
• The European fighters don't have the radar evading technology the f-35 has.
• European jets tend to be quite popular in the Middle East, often because the US won't let them buy their top-of-the-range fighter jets.
• The US wants Israel to maintain a technological edge over its neighbors.

Competition and Future Prospects

• Boeing's development of the next generation of F-47 Jet Fighter poses a risk to Lockheed Martin's market share.
• The F-47 is a different aircraft meant for a different purpose, but still.
• Lockheed Martin is pushing forward with a combat drone system, in which F-35s operate alongside unmanned craft.
• European companies are catching up with their next-generation jets, such as the Tempest (developed by the British, Italians, and Japanese) and the FCAS (French, German, and Spanish).
• These jets will sap demand for US aircraft.
• The Tempest is supposed to come out in the next 10 years.
• The Tempest will have all the things the F-35 has.

Notable Quotes

• "Buying a fighter jet isn't just about buying a single plane, it's a commitment to future relationship with the country that sold you it."
• "Well, are they gonna do this with us? Are they gonna suddenly stop supplying, stop updating?" - Regarding countries' fears about US support for F-35s.
• "There's this talk that the US could press a button and the jets would cease to operate. This is something that governments who have the plane deny. This is something the US government denies, and it's something that Lockheed Martin certainly denies..." - Addressing the kill switch rumors.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The F-35 program, while a massive financial undertaking and a significant export for the US, faces several challenges. These include concerns about reliance on the US for maintenance and updates, rising costs, competition from European alternatives, the development of the F-47, and the emergence of unmanned aircraft. While the F-35 currently holds a technological edge, particularly in stealth capabilities, the development of next-generation European fighters like the Tempest and FCAS poses a significant threat to its future dominance in the global arms trade. The next decade will be crucial in determining the F-35's long-term market share and the overall landscape of the fighter jet industry.