Asia Pacific security at risk from overlooked factors: IISS | East Asia Tonight (May 28)

Key Concepts

• Asia-Pacific security risks shaped by non-geopolitical factors
• Economic interdependence and domestic politics influencing security policies
• China's engagement with Pacific Island nations
• Japanese bond market volatility
• China's space exploration program, including asteroid and comet sample return mission
• US-China competition and its impact on regional security
• Security dilemma in the Asia-Pacific
• Importance of defense industrial partnerships
• Growing relationship between China, North Korea, and Russia
• Maritime security and underwater infrastructure protection

Asia-Pacific Security Risks

• Main Point: A think tank report by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) warns that security in the Asia-Pacific is increasingly shaped by often overlooked non-geopolitical factors, leading to "less than ideal responses."
• Key Factors:
  • Economic interdependence: Global market and economic forces influence security decisions.
  • Domestic politics: Political leadership and internal dynamics shape threat assessments and defense policies. Example: Potential impact of a second Trump term on international security.
  • Operational histories of militaries: Past experiences and doctrines affect current strategies.
• Impact: These factors can lead to threat assessments being either downplayed or overblown, influencing defense capability development plans and narrowing defense partnership choices.
• Security Dilemma: Countries' self-defense measures can be perceived as offensive by neighbors, creating a cycle of tension.
• Northeast Asia Polarization: Growing ties between China, North Korea, and Russia are contributing to a more polarized Northeast Asia, influencing Japan's strategic outlook. Japan is diversifying its partnerships beyond the US alliance, seeking closer ties with South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia.

China's Engagement with Pacific Island Nations

• Main Point: China is hosting leaders from Pacific Island nations in Fujian province to deepen ties in the strategically important region.
• Participants: Delegations from 11 nations, including Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru (who switched allegiance from Taiwan to China). Representatives from Palau, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands (who maintain relations with Taiwan) are not attending.
• Focus Areas: Disaster prevention, poverty reduction, and sustainable agriculture.
• Diplomatic Framework: China emphasizes the "four respects": respect for sovereignty, each country's development path, the will of the people, and the culture of the countries.
• Potential Cooperation: Green energy generation, leveraging China's strength in solar panels and wind turbines.
• Strategic Importance:
  • Diplomatic leverage: Building ties to reduce Taiwan's remaining allies.
  • Economic opportunities: Access to markets for Chinese goods and sources of raw materials (rare earth elements).
  • Countering influence: Countering American and Australian influence in the region.

Japanese Bond Market Volatility

• Main Point: An auction of 40-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) drew the weakest demand in nearly a year, deepening fears of a route in the country's $7.8 trillion bond market.
• Weak Demand: The bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.2, the lowest since July of the previous year. A ratio of 3 or under indicates a weak auction.
• Rising Yields: Yields on long-dated JGBs are rising due to weak demand.
• Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monitoring: BOJ Governor Kazu Oeda stated that they are closely monitoring long-term yields.
• Factors Contributing to Volatility:
  • BOJ tapering: The BOJ, the biggest buyer of these bonds, has been buying less of it.
  • Pension funds and insurance companies: They are becoming more uncertain about committing to long-term bonds due to global tariff wars.
  • Japan's massive debt: Japan's debt is currently at 200% of its GDP, one of the highest in the developed world.
• Government Response: The Ministry of Finance is conducting a survey to gauge demand for long-term bonds and build consensus.
• Potential Actions: Cutting 40-year long-term bond issuance by up to 3 trillion yen (approximately $21 billion USD).
• Investor Reactions: Mixed, with some seeing technical problems and others warning of further selloffs if issuance cuts are insufficient.

China's Space Exploration Program

• Main Point: China is set to launch its first mission to collect dust and rock samples from an asteroid and a comet near Earth.
• Mission Name: Tianwen-2
• Mission Objectives:
  • Approach near-Earth asteroid 2016 HO3 to obtain a sample.
  • Drop off the collected samples as the probe returns to Earth's orbit.
  • Use Earth's gravity as a slingshot to head to comet 311P.
  • Observe the comet with scientific instruments.
• Sampling Technique: Touch-and-go technique, similar to a Japanese mission.
• Mission Duration: 10+ years.
• Scientific Value:
  • Analyzing asteroid samples to understand the composition of celestial bodies.
  • Potential confirmation that the asteroid is made of moon stuff.
  • Observing the comet to understand its structure and composition.
• Significance: Demonstrates China's ambitious space program and its ability to execute complex missions.
• International Collaboration: China is open to international collaboration, as demonstrated by its call for international payloads on a mission to Mars and sharing moon rock samples with universities in the US and UK.

US-China Competition and Regional Security

• US Prioritization of Asia: The US is prioritizing Asia, with competition with China as the top priority.
• Secretary of Defense Remarks: The US is committed to credible deterrence in the region, including across the Taiwan Strait.
• Concerns: While some welcome US commitment to deter coercive behavior, others worry about growing tensions with China.
• Need for Balance: Military deterrence should be paired with assurance, channels of communication, crisis management mechanisms, and multilateralism.
• Tariffs as a Litmus Test: Tariffs are the first litmus test for assessing how to deal with the US and whether the US can be trusted to follow through on its commitments.
• Defense Industrial Partnerships: Defense industrial partnerships are key to strategic autonomy.

Conclusion

The news segment highlights the complex and interconnected nature of security challenges in East Asia. Non-geopolitical factors, such as economic interdependence and domestic politics, are increasingly shaping security policies and outcomes. China's growing influence in the Pacific, the volatility of the Japanese bond market, and the US-China competition all contribute to the region's dynamic and uncertain security environment. China's ambitious space program showcases its technological capabilities and its desire to play a leading role in space exploration. The need for balanced approaches, international collaboration, and strategic autonomy is crucial for navigating these challenges and promoting stability in the region.