Are Trump’s threats against Venezuela really about fighting drugs or more about regime change?

Key Concepts

• Covert Operations: Secret activities undertaken by a government or organization, often by intelligence agencies, to influence political, economic, or military conditions abroad.
• Regime Change: The overthrow or replacement of a government, often by external forces.
• International Law: A body of rules and principles governing the relations between states and other international actors.
• UN Charter: The foundational treaty of the United Nations, outlining its purposes, principles, and structure.
• Principle of Non-Intervention: A core tenet of international law prohibiting states from interfering in the internal affairs of other states.
• Rule of Law: The principle that all people and institutions are subject to and accountable to laws that are publicly promulgated, equally enforced, and independently adjudicated.
• Migration Crisis: A large-scale movement of people from one country to another, often due to political instability, economic hardship, or conflict.
• Drug Trafficking: The illegal cultivation, manufacture, distribution, and sale of controlled substances.

Escalation of US Policy Towards Venezuela and CIA Operations

President Donald Trump has authorized the CIA to prepare covert operations against the Venezuelan government in Caracas. This decision marks a significant escalation in US policy and follows weeks of heightened tensions, including US naval raids in the Caribbean and Venezuelan military mobilization.

Trump's Justifications for Operations

President Trump cited two primary reasons for authorizing these operations:

1. Prison Releases: He claimed that Venezuela has "emptied their prisons into the United States of America," with individuals entering through the border due to an "open border policy."
2. Drug Trafficking: Trump stated that a significant amount of drugs are entering the US from Venezuela, often via sea routes.

The White House has not provided specific details about the potential operations, and Trump declined to confirm if the plans include removing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power.

Venezuelan and Regional Reactions

Nicolás Maduro accused Washington of reviving the era of CIA-backed coups in Latin America, stating, "How many more CIA coups? Latin America doesn't want them, doesn't need them, and rejects them."

Neighboring leaders have also expressed concerns. Colombian President Gustavo Petro, while distancing himself from Maduro, warned of the risks of US intervention. Venezuela's government has announced preparations for potential military intervention, including military exercises and civilian training, to defend against what they term a "looming siege."

Background of US-Venezuela Tensions

DW correspondent Oscar Schlanker explained that the deterioration of US-Venezuela relations dates back to the presidencies of Hugo Chávez and George W. Bush. Tensions intensified under the Obama administration with the implementation of sanctions. The migration crisis, described as the largest exodus in the hemisphere's history, began to unfold during this period.

Under Donald Trump's administration, the US stopped recognizing Maduro as a legitimate president in 2018 due to disputed elections. This has led to the closure of embassies and a lack of ongoing negotiations. An attempt to restart talks through Richard Grenell earlier this year reportedly fizzled out.

Evidence for Trump's Justifications

Oscar Schlanker stated that there is no evidence to support Trump's claims about Venezuela emptying its prisons to send criminals to the US. He clarified that while violent gangs have indeed migrated as part of the over 9 million Venezuelans who have left due to the crisis, this is not on the scale Trump suggests and is being used to justify regime change. These gangs have caused issues across the hemisphere, including in Peru, Ecuador, Chile, and Argentina, as well as in the US.

Venezuelan Public Sentiment

Inside Venezuela, there is significant fear due to the Maduro administration's crackdown on dissent. However, many Venezuelans are desperate for change, whether it be a change in the regime or a broader regime change. There was hope invested in opposition leader María Corina Machado, who is reportedly in hiding due to threats to her life. Recent elections, though disputed, have shown a desire for change among the populace.

International Law and US Intervention

Mary Ellen O'Connell, an expert on international law from the University of Notre Dame, discussed the legal implications of the US actions.

Violation of International Law

O'Connell asserted that under international law, the US has no legal basis to authorize CIA operations inside Venezuela without the consent of the current governing authority. She described the Maduro regime as a dictatorship that denies basic human rights, but argued that opposing it by violating international law is ironic.

She highlighted that President Trump has already carried out "unlawful killings in the Caribbean," and extending such actions into Venezuela without consent would be a "clear violation of international law."

UN Charter and Principles

The UN Charter, which governs the use of military force, has two key principles relevant here:

1. Prohibition of the Use of Military Force: States cannot use military force unless they are being attacked by another state with significant military force.
2. Principle of Non-Intervention: States are prohibited from interfering in the internal affairs of other states.

O'Connell emphasized that if Venezuela wanted US assistance in combating drug trafficking, President Maduro would need to request it. The US cannot unilaterally take matters into its own hands.

Peaceful Means vs. Military Force

O'Connell advocated for peaceful means, such as regional cooperation, to promote human rights and achieve peace and reconciliation in Venezuela. She drew parallels to Germany's reunification and the democratic transitions in Eastern Europe, which were achieved through grassroots efforts rather than violence. She criticized Trump's actions as "fabricated drama" for domestic political reasons.

Drug Trafficking as a Justification

Regarding the justification of drug cartels, O'Connell reiterated that drug dealing and trafficking are crimes. The US has successfully cooperated with regional countries using law enforcement agencies like the Coast Guard. She suggested that Trump's actions push aside these established methods and appear to be part of a broader strategy to create a sense of emergency and fear in the US, similar to his deployment of federal troops in response to migration-related issues in US cities.

Open Admission of Covert Action

The public admission by a US president of authorizing covert operations is highly unusual. O'Connell noted that it is counterintuitive to announce a covert action publicly. This approach aligns with President Trump's governing style, which she described as favoring drama and big shows to counter opposition and perceived declines in polls or economic handling. He aims to appeal to his base, which has been galvanized by his rhetoric on migration issues.

O'Connell concluded by stating that historical US interventions in Central and South America have not led to success for either the US or the involved countries. She argued that the migration problems Trump highlights are often a consequence of US interference in countries attempting to establish democracies and prosperity.