Antony Green on the key seats and the state of play this federal election | 7.30

Key Concepts:

• Two-party preferred vote vs. actual seat outcomes
• Decline in major party support
• Crossbench influence and composition
• Target electorates for Coalition victory (Victoria, NSW outer suburbs, Central Coast NSW)
• Marginal vs. safe seats

1. State of Play Entering the Election Campaign:

• Labor: 78 seats
• Coalition: 57 seats
• Crossbench: 15 members (largest in decades)
• Swing needed for Labor to lose majority: ~1%
• Swing needed for Coalition to have more seats than Labor: ~3.5%
• Swing needed for Coalition to form majority government: >5%
• The last election produced an opposition with about 10 fewer seats than earlier examples.

2. The Crossbench Phenomenon and Declining Major Party Support:

• Major party vote decline: Coalition ~36%, Labor ~32%, Others ~31% at the last federal election.
• Since 2007, minor party/independent vote has more than doubled.
• Number of seats where an independent/minor party finishes in the top two has increased from 3 to 27.
• Of those 27 seats, 16 were won by independents/minor parties in the last election.
• The preferential voting system doesn't always result in a Labor vs. Coalition outcome due to the increasing number of non-major party contests.

3. Coalition's Path to Victory: Focus on Victoria and NSW:

• Coalition needs to win 10-15 seats to get close to government.
• Bulk seats are in NSW and Victoria.
• Victoria: Target Eastern suburban seats where Labor has performed well recently (e.g., McEwen), potentially some safe Labor seats with dissatisfaction.
• NSW: Target outer suburban seats, and a string of seats from Gosford to Port Stephens (Central Coast, Hunter Valley) where the Labor vote has been declining. Also, Gilmore on the south coast.
• Queensland and Western Australia are not considered particularly productive for the Coalition.

4. Key Arguments and Perspectives:

• The traditional focus on two-party preferred vote is becoming less relevant due to the rise of independents and minor parties.
• The Coalition faces a significant challenge due to the seats lost to the crossbench in the previous election.
• Victoria and NSW are crucial for the Coalition's chances of gaining enough seats to form a government or at least deprive Labor of a majority.

5. Notable Quotes:

• N/A

6. Technical Terms and Concepts:

• Crossbench: The group of members of parliament who are not members of the government or the main opposition party.
• Two-party preferred vote: A method of calculating the vote share between the two major parties (Labor and Coalition) after the distribution of preferences.
• Marginal seat: A seat held by a party with a small margin of victory, making it vulnerable to being won by another party in the next election.
• Safe seat: A seat held by a party with a large margin of victory, making it unlikely to be won by another party in the next election.

7. Logical Connections:

• The decline in major party support is directly linked to the rise of the crossbench and the increasing number of seats where independents and minor parties are competitive.
• The Coalition's path to victory is dependent on winning seats in specific regions (Victoria and NSW) due to the limited opportunities for gains in other states.

8. Data and Statistics:

• Labor: 78 seats
• Coalition: 57 seats
• Crossbench: 15 seats
• Coalition ~36%, Labor ~32%, Others ~31% at the last federal election.
• Number of seats where an independent/minor party finishes in the top two has increased from 3 to 27.
• Of those 27 seats, 16 were won by independents/minor parties in the last election.

9. Synthesis/Conclusion:

The upcoming election presents a complex landscape with a significant crossbench influence and declining support for major parties. The Coalition faces a considerable challenge in gaining enough seats to form a government, requiring a targeted strategy focused on key electorates in Victoria and NSW. The traditional reliance on two-party preferred vote analysis may be misleading due to the increasing importance of independents and minor parties.