Antony Green on seats the Coalition could gain this election | 7.30

Key Concepts:

• Coalition electoral strategy
• Target seats in New South Wales and Victoria
• Marginal Labor seats
• Suburban and regional electorates
• Labor vote decline

Electoral Strategy for the Coalition

The core challenge for the coalition to form a government is winning an additional 10 to 15 seats. This requires focusing on "bulk seats," primarily located in New South Wales and Victoria.

Victorian Target Seats

In Victoria, the coalition should target eastern suburb seats where the Labor party has performed well in recent elections. Specific examples include the seat of Mchuan, located north of the city. The strategy also involves identifying safe Labor seats where there is dissatisfaction with the perceived lack of progress in recent years.

New South Wales Target Seats

In New South Wales, the coalition should focus on outer suburban seats and a string of seats stretching from Gossford up to Paul Stevens on the central coast and the Hunter Valley. These are traditionally Labor seats, but the Labor vote has been declining over several years. The seat of Gilmore on the south coast is also identified as a potential target.

Seat Potential and Government Formation

The speaker asserts that there are enough seats available in New South Wales and Victoria to deny Labor a majority. There are potentially enough seats to bring Labor and the coalition to roughly equal seat numbers. However, the critical question is whether there are enough seats to propel the coalition into government.

Limited Opportunities Elsewhere

The speaker indicates that Queensland and Western Australia do not present particularly promising opportunities for the coalition to gain additional seats.