‘A lot of very bad and dangerous ideas’ in original Ukraine peace plan: Analyst

Key Concepts

• Updated Ukraine Peace Plan: A revised proposal by the US and Ukraine aimed at ending the war, reportedly including concessions on sensitive issues.
• Kremlin's Demands: Moscow's stated requirements for ending the conflict, which the initial plan was perceived to resemble.
• NATO Membership: A key point of contention, with Ukraine seeking membership and Russia opposing it.
• Western Troops in Ukraine: The presence of foreign military personnel in Ukraine, another sensitive issue.
• Security Guarantee: A commitment from allies to defend Ukraine if attacked, with specific terms and duration being debated.
• Territorial Concessions: The possibility of Ukraine ceding territory to Russia as part of a peace deal.
• Ukrainian Armed Forces Cap: A proposed limit on the size of Ukraine's military.
• Amnesty for Russians: A potential provision for pardoning Russian soldiers involved in the conflict.
• Reconstruction Fund: A financial mechanism for rebuilding Ukraine, with questions about its oversight.
• Presidential Discretion: The authority of the US President to decide on military response in case of an attack.
• Zelensky-Trump Negotiations: The potential for direct talks between the Ukrainian President and former US President Donald Trump on resolving key issues.
• Ukrainian Public Trust: The level of confidence Ukrainians have in President Zelenskyy amidst the war and domestic challenges.
• European Support for Ukraine: The commitment of European nations to assisting Ukraine, including military aid and financial support.
• China's Role: The potential involvement of China in peace negotiations and its actual stance on the conflict.
• Putin's Strategy: Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-term approach to the war, relying on patience and pressure.
• Economic Strain on Russia: The impact of the war and sanctions on the Russian economy.
• Troop Rotation: The need for Russian forces to be rotated for rest and resupply.
• War Duration: Projections on how long the conflict is likely to continue.
• Russian Attacks on Infrastructure: Deliberate strikes by Russia on Ukraine's energy and gas facilities.
• Refugee Crisis: The potential for a large-scale displacement of people due to the conflict.

Analysis of the Updated Ukraine Peace Plan

Melinda Herring, a non-resident senior fellow at the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, discusses the evolving peace plan for Ukraine. She notes that the initial proposal, presented the previous week, was met with surprise and appeared to align closely with Russia's demands from 2022, leading to a sense of déjà vu. Herring describes the original plan as "riddled with problems" and "dangerous."

Key Issues and Criticisms of the Original Plan:

• Capping Ukrainian Armed Forces: The plan reportedly suggested limiting Ukraine's armed forces to 600,000 personnel, a point that has since been pushed back against.
• Inadequate Security Guarantee: The proposed security guarantee, intended to deter future Russian aggression, is criticized as "fake." It lacks a clear trigger mechanism for automatic US response and is limited to a 10-year period, leaving the decision to the President's discretion.
• Amnesty for Russians: The plan included provisions for amnesty for Russian soldiers.
• Reconstruction Fund Oversight: A proposed $100 billion fund for Ukraine's reconstruction would be overseen by Russia, the aggressor.

A more "narrow version" of the document, reduced to under 20 points, was developed over the weekend by the US and Ukraine. However, Herring expresses doubt that Russia will agree to the current terms.

Zelenskyy's Negotiation Strategy with Trump

The discussion touches upon the possibility of a White House meeting between President Zelenskyy and former President Donald Trump to settle the most sensitive points of the peace plan. Herring states that Zelenskyy has "no other choice" but to negotiate directly with Trump on issues such as territory, NATO, and security guarantees, as these remain unresolved in the draft document.

• Sensitive Issues: Territory, NATO membership, and security guarantees are identified as the three most critical and unresolved points.
• Challenging Relationship: The relationship between Zelenskyy and Trump is described as "not a natural relationship," marked by age differences and past tensions, though Zelenskyy has improved his communication with Trump.

Ukrainian Public Sentiment and Trust in Zelenskyy

Herring addresses the mood of Ukrainians and their trust in President Zelenskyy. Despite potential dissatisfaction and the possibility of voting him out in future elections, Zelenskyy "enjoys the trust of a majority of Ukrainians." Notably, any attacks on Zelenskyy by Donald Trump tend to increase his approval ratings.

The Issue of Territory

A significant sticking point in the peace negotiations is the issue of territory. The original draft proposed Ukraine ceding territory it currently holds, which Herring deems "insane."

• Specific Concession: The plan called for Ukraine to give up 12% of its territory in the Donbas, described as "precious territory" that Ukraine has fought for over 11 years.
• Strategic Importance: The fortress cities around Donetsk are highlighted as strategically vital for defending eastern Ukraine, and Ukraine is unlikely to compromise on these areas.

European Unity and Support

Herring believes that Europe remains united in its support for Ukraine, despite some dissenting voices.

• "Defectors": Hungary and Slovakia are mentioned as countries with governments that are not strongly pro-Ukrainian.
• Increased European Contribution: In response to potential reductions in US aid, Europe is stepping up by purchasing weapons from the US and sending them to Ukraine.
• Key Supporters: The Scandinavian governments, Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states are recognized for their significant contributions. Germany has also shown a substantial shift in its support.
• France's Role: France is noted for talking a "big game" but having done "a lot less than they would have you believe."

China's Role in Diplomacy

Herring dismisses the idea of China playing a constructive role in the peace process.

• Lack of Neutrality: China is accused of selling drone parts and ammunition to both Russia and Ukraine, demonstrating a lack of neutrality.
• No Trust: China is not trusted by Europeans, Americans, or Ukrainians.
• North Korea's Involvement: The North Koreans are mentioned as having provided troops, contrasting with China's actions.

Putin's Long-Term Strategy and War Duration

The discussion turns to whether compromises by the US and Ukraine validate Putin's long-term strategy of waiting for the West to negotiate on his terms. Herring acknowledges that it's a question of "who can wait longer" and expresses concern that Putin may be more invested in Ukraine's fate than the West.

• Putin's Legacy: Putin has staked his entire legacy on the war, making him "all in."
• Russian Weaknesses: Despite his commitment, Russia's economy is not performing well, and its soldiers are in poor condition, necessitating a pause and troop rotation.
• Benefit of a Pause for Russia: A pause would significantly benefit Russia by allowing for troop rotation and resupply before resuming offensive operations.
• Projected War Duration: Herring unfortunately predicts that the war will continue for another 12 to 18 months, with innocent civilians bearing the brunt of the suffering.
• Russian Attacks on Infrastructure: Putin's deliberate policy of targeting Ukraine's electrical grid and gas facilities is aimed at causing hardship, cold, and a massive refugee crisis.

Herring is scheduled to travel to Ukraine and hopes to provide updates from the ground.