Zelenskyy says Kyiv seeking compromises that strengthen Ukraine, not weaken it

Key Concepts

• 28-Point US Peace Plan: A proposed framework for ending the war in Ukraine, reportedly involving territorial concessions from Ukraine.
• Territorial Integrity and Sovereignty: Fundamental principles of international law that Russia's actions are seen as violating.
• Constructive Talks: A description of the recent Geneva meetings between Ukraine, the EU, and the US, though Russia was not informed of the results.
• Capitulation: The perception by many Ukrainians that the 28-point plan represents an unacceptable surrender.
• Military and Military-Political Issues: Key Russian demands in the peace plan, including Ukraine's non-accession to NATO, restrictions on long-range weapons, and limitations on the Ukrainian army.
• Strategic Stability: Russia's concern that foreign military presence in Ukraine undermines its security.
• Sanctions: Economic measures imposed on Russia, the removal of which is a potential, but not primary, consideration in negotiations.

Summary of Discussions on the Ukraine Peace Plan

Ukraine's Stance on Peace Negotiations

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has emphasized that any peace deal must strengthen, not weaken, his country. Addressing the Swedish Parliament, he reiterated his commitment to finding compromises for peace, stating, "We are at a critical moment and we are working closely with the United States, with European partners, with many, many others to define steps that can end Russia's war against us, against Ukraine, and bring real security." A primary sticking point for Ukraine is Russia's demand for legal recognition of its territorial gains, which Zelenskyy views as an attempt to "break the principle of territorial integrity and sovereignty."

The 28-Point US Peace Plan and Ukrainian Reactions

Officials from Ukraine, the EU, and the United States met in Geneva to discuss changes to a 28-point US peace plan. This plan has been described as favoring Moscow, with reports suggesting it calls for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia and potentially split its army. Many Ukrainians have expressed skepticism and strong opposition to the plan, viewing it as a "capitulation." One interviewee stated, "I think the Ukrainian people will not agree. Even if they sign, they need to be implemented. The Ukrainian people will be the ones to do it. And they do not agree with this." There is also confusion regarding the plan's origin, with initial speculation suggesting it came from Russia via the US, but later statements from US officials, including Marco Rubio, asserting it is a US plan.

Origin and Ukrainian Involvement in the Peace Plan

There has been considerable "backpedaling" from the US side regarding the plan's origin and Ukraine's initial involvement. While former Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov was reportedly in Florida during a meeting between US Special Envoy Whit and Dmitri Peskov where the plan was discussed, he has denied direct involvement or approval of its points. It appears that Ukraine's first direct engagement with this specific peace plan occurred over the weekend in Geneva.

Russia's Perspective on the Negotiations

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia would not discuss "serious issues like the Russia-US peace plan on social media." However, President Vladimir Putin spoke with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and it was reported that they exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine, including the US peace plan. Putin indicated that a version of the US peace plan reviewed by Moscow "could serve as the basis for a final peace settlement in Ukraine." Erdoğan expressed readiness to assist the negotiating process. Russia has reiterated its interest in a political and diplomatic resolution but insists that "all Russian conditions and interests should be taken into account." Putin has also stated that if these conditions are not met, Russia is prepared to continue fighting, citing its battlefield successes and its goal of taking Ukraine under control and fighting for Ukrainian territories.

Key Russian Demands in the Peace Plan

According to Vili Kashin, Director at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, the most critical aspects of the 28-point plan for Russia are the "conditions related to military and military political issues." These include:

• Ukraine not joining NATO.
• Ukraine not possessing or being supplied with long-range weapons from the West.
• The Ukrainian army being subject to certain limitations.
• No foreign military presence on Ukrainian soil. Kashin believes these conditions are of "utmost importance for Russia" as they perceive any foreign deployment in Ukraine as undermining "strategic stability."

The Role of US-Russia Relations in Negotiations

The future of Russia-US relations is being discussed at various levels. There is an understanding that resolving the Ukrainian issue could lead to "very good deals" beneficial to both countries. Conversely, until the Ukrainian issue is settled, progress on other matters is unlikely. Both sides are seen as interested in concluding the Ukrainian case.

Public Support for the War in Russia

The Russian government has managed to limit the war's impact on society, with only one wave of mobilization and a significant economic slowdown that is not a recession. Major war hardships are not widely felt by the population, leading to support for achieving the "core goals of the special military operation," which include military, political, and territorial gains.

Impact of Sanctions on Negotiations

The fate of sanctions is not considered a major component of the negotiations by Vili Kashin. He cites the instability of US politics and the possibility of sanctions being reintroduced as reasons why irreversible political concessions would not be traded for them. While lifting sanctions would benefit the Russian economy, there is skepticism about significant or permanent removal, especially given US political polarization.

Conclusion and Takeaways

The discussions highlight a significant divergence in perspectives on the path to peace. Ukraine insists on preserving its territorial integrity and sovereignty, while Russia prioritizes military and political concessions from Ukraine, including its non-alignment with NATO and limitations on its military capabilities. The 28-point US peace plan, though presented as a potential framework, is viewed with deep suspicion by Ukraine, which sees it as a capitulation. Russia, while open to negotiation, is firm on its demands and prepared to continue military action if they are not met. The role of the US is central, but the origin and specifics of the proposed plan remain points of contention and confusion. The impact of sanctions on Russia's willingness to negotiate is considered secondary to its core security and territorial objectives.