Zelensky ‘planning election and peace deal referendum’ | Ukraine: The Latest

Ukraine the Latest - February 11th, 2024: Detailed Summary

Key Concepts:

• Starlink Switchoff: Disruption of Starlink satellite internet service in Russia and its impact on Russian military communications.
• Telegram Clampdown: Russian government efforts to restrict Telegram usage and promote a domestic alternative (Max).
• Ukrainian Elections/Referendum: Uncertainty surrounding potential presidential elections or a peace referendum in Ukraine.
• Western Military Aid: Approval of a €90 billion loan from the European Parliament to Ukraine for budgetary and military support.
• Russian Military Production: Continued production of tank and artillery barrels despite sanctions, relying on Western-origin machinery.
• Olympic Controversy: Ukrainian athlete Vladislav Heraskevich’s defiance of IOC ban on “helmet of memory” commemorating fallen Ukrainian athletes.
• South Caucasus Geopolitics: US Vice President Vance’s visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan, shifting regional dynamics.
• Russian Economic Vulnerabilities: Dependence on Western technology and trade, highlighted by sanctions and supply chain issues.

Military Updates & Russian Technological Dependence

The broadcast began with recent military updates. Ukrainian drones reportedly struck Russia’s Bulgar oil refinery (formerly Stalingrad, ~300km east of Ukraine), causing some damage to the site and minor damage to nearby residential buildings. Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed to have downed 48 Ukrainian drones across multiple regions, but did not confirm any strikes on Bulgar Oblast. Simultaneously, explosions were reported in Lviv, Ukraine, attributed to Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, with air defense systems activated. Tragically, four people, including three toddlers, were killed in Bodak, near Kharkiv, in a separate attack. 11,000 people in Zaporizhzhia are without electricity following a drone strike, with temperatures reaching -9°C (15°F). A total of 129 Russian drones were launched, with 112 reportedly shot down by Ukrainian forces.

Footage from Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” project (facilitating Russian soldier surrender) showed a disturbing incident where Russian soldiers attempting to surrender were targeted by a drone originating from their own forces, resulting in one fatality.

A significant portion of the discussion focused on the fallout from the Starlink switchoff. Millbloggers reported price gouging on US-made ubiquity Wi-Fi bridges illegally imported into Russia, with costs doubling overnight. Scammers are exploiting the situation, offering false promises to restore Starlink access. Concerns are rising that Ukraine is obtaining positional data from even deactivated Starlink devices, potentially compromising Russian forces. There is widespread skepticism about Russia’s ability to replicate the Starlink service. Millbloggers expressed frustration, with one referring to Elon Musk as a “fascist and a bastard.”

This technological disruption is occurring alongside a Kremlin crackdown on Telegram, attempting to force users onto the domestically developed Max app. The move is causing significant disruption, particularly impacting Russian military communications, as Telegram is heavily relied upon for coordination.

Western Aid & Sanctions Efficacy

The European Parliament approved a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, covering two-thirds of the country’s budgetary and military needs for the next two years. Payments are expected to begin in April, pending formal approval from the European Council. The loan aims to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities and integrate its defense industrial base with the EU. The potential for British participation, involving a fee estimated at €2 billion, was also discussed. This loan is separate from the Security Action for Europe scheme (€150 billion).

A report by Front Intelligence Insight and Dallas revealed that Russia is continuing to produce tank and artillery barrels despite sanctions. The manufacturing plant number nine in Ural Mash industrial zone is undergoing modernization, relying heavily on Western-origin machinery from Taiwan, Italy, Germany, and Britain. While a check on one British company, Jones and Shipman, revealed they ceased trading in 2020 and no longer support the equipment they previously sold to Russia, the report suggests broader sanctions circumvention.

Political Uncertainty & Diplomatic Maneuvering

The broadcast addressed conflicting reports regarding potential Ukrainian elections or a referendum on a peace deal. Initial reports from the Financial Times suggested President Zelenskyy would announce plans on the anniversary of the full-scale invasion (February 24th), potentially under pressure from the White House to reach an agreement with Russia before the US midterms. However, Zelenskyy’s office denied these reports, citing security concerns. Polling data indicates 55% of Ukrainians support a referendum on a peace deal, while 32% oppose it. The constitutional implications of holding elections under martial law were also highlighted.

The discussion touched on the political dynamics surrounding Zelenskyy’s potential future, drawing parallels to Winston Churchill. The ongoing battle for influence between Ukraine and Russia over Donald Trump’s ear was also noted.

Olympic Controversy & Commemoration

The controversy surrounding Ukrainian skeleton racer Vladislav Heraskevich’s “helmet of memory,” featuring photos of fallen Ukrainian athletes, was discussed. The IOC banned the helmet, deeming it a political statement. Heraskevich vowed to continue wearing it, risking disqualification. The IOC’s decision was criticized as inconsistent, as other athletes were permitted to commemorate deceased individuals without facing repercussions. The IOC’s decision to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete as neutrals was also framed as a political decision.

Geopolitical Shifts in the South Caucasus

James Kilner provided analysis of US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan. This visit, the first by a US VP to Armenia, signifies a shift in regional dynamics, as both countries have distanced themselves from Russia. The US is investing in Armenia’s nuclear power sector and undermining Russian energy strategies.

Russian Economic & Internal Issues

Kilner also highlighted the declining proportion of Russia’s GDP linked to trade with the outside world, reaching its lowest level since the Soviet era. He noted the ongoing issues with Russian communication systems, particularly the disruption of Telegram, and the resulting frustration among Russian citizens and military personnel. He also pointed out the low uptake of Russian tourism to North Korea despite significant investment in resorts, illustrating Russia’s limited options for international partnerships.

Final Thoughts:

Dom Nichols criticized the IOC’s handling of the helmet controversy, arguing their stance on political statements is inconsistent and that the manner of death should not dictate whether commemoration is allowed. Adley Pompan Ponte focused on the Epstein Files and the connections of Karina Schulak to the case, highlighting the complex web of relationships. James Kilner discussed the limited success of Russian tourism to North Korea and the ongoing issues with Russian communication systems.

The podcast concluded with information on how to support the Telegraph’s Ukraine coverage and access additional resources.