You’re Not Ready for the Next Phase of Gold & Silver

Key Concepts

Gold Correction Analog: A method of analyzing historical gold corrections after major breakouts to project future price movements.
Major Breakouts in Gold: Significant upward price movements following prolonged periods of consolidation, identified in 1972, 2005, and 2024.
150-Day Moving Average: A technical indicator used to identify potential support levels for silver after gold tests this average.
Parabolic Move: A rapid and steep increase in price, often seen in silver after gold's correction phase.
Oversold Bounce: A temporary upward price movement in a declining market, indicating that an asset may have fallen too far, too fast.
Junior Gold and Silver Companies: Smaller mining companies with high growth potential, targeted for investment.
Daily Gold Premium: A premium service offering recommendations for junior gold and silver companies.

Gold and Silver Market Outlook

The speaker argues that investors are not prepared for the next phase in gold and silver, suggesting that corrections could be longer and deeper than anticipated. This analysis is based on historical correction analogs and current market conditions.

Gold Correction Analog Analysis

The speaker has created a "gold correction analog" by examining three major historical breakouts in gold:

1972: The greatest breakout of all time.
2005: A breakout from a 21-year base above $500 an ounce.
2024: A cup and handle breakout through a 13-year base.

The analysis focuses on the duration and depth of corrections that followed these breakouts. The speaker is not looking at individual corrections but rather an average of three to project the current situation.

1972 Correction: Considered too small for the current projected correction.
1973 Correction: Considered too large, with a 28% decline. To equal the 1973 peak before its correction, gold would need to reach $5,800 an ounce, a level far from current prices.
2006 Correction: Also analyzed.

The average of these three corrections is presented as the most realistic barometer for future expectations. The current black line on the chart represents gold's recent price action, showing a slight decline followed by a rally.

Key Projections based on the average analog:

The average correction bottoms just below $3,600.
The correction started in mid-October and could last for five months.
It takes an additional month and a half from the start of the correction for gold to reach its previous high and break out again.
This projection suggests a five-month correction followed by a 1.5-month recovery before a new breakout.

Silver Performance After Gold's Correction

The analysis for silver is based on its performance after gold tests the 200-day moving average, but due to historical variations, the 150-day moving average is used as a more inclusive benchmark. This is because some past tests of the 200-day moving average were not fully met, with silver dipping to the 180-day or 150-day levels.

Historical instances analyzed include:

1973
1978
2006
2010
2020

The methodology involves observing silver's performance after gold breaks out, corrects, and then tests the 150-day moving average.

Key Observations for Silver:

If gold corrects and tests the 150-day moving average, silver's potential low is estimated to be around $40, possibly higher ($41-$42).
The analysis projects silver's performance moving forward from the beginning of January, assuming a gold correction is nearing its end and silver starts at $40.
Most historical cases show bullish outcomes for silver, with the exception of the 2006 case, which is deemed a poor fit for current market conditions.
The 2010 period is highlighted as the most realistic and best fit for silver's current situation. In 2010, after a rally post-global financial crisis, silver corrected hard for two months, then rebounded to its previous high, consolidated for four months, and subsequently exploded higher.
Based on this 2010 analog, silver could potentially reach $130 by March 2027.

The speaker reiterates that current price action, with consolidation before a significant move, is why many are not ready for what's coming.

Short-Term Market Overview (Weekly)

The speaker provides a snapshot of the market for the week, looking at daily candle charts for the past two months, including gold, silver, gold/stock market ratio, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SI, SILJ, TLT (bonds), and the stock market.

Key Observations:

While the stock market made new highs and pulled back slightly, precious metals were selling off.
The current rebound in gold, silver, and miners is considered an oversold bounce, and the speaker does not expect a return to new highs.
Silver is showing slightly more strength than gold, with three bullish candles compared to gold's one.
Despite this, the market is still in a correction phase.

Gold and Silver Daily Charts Analysis

Gold:

The 200-day moving average is a key reference point.
Current price action shows an oversold condition with a weak bounce.
Resistance levels are identified at the low $4100s and around $4050 (today's high was $4045).
Gold could rally slightly higher before facing more selling pressure.
The bigger picture projection is a test of $3,700, representing approximately a 16% decline from current levels. The price has already come close to this target.

Silver:

Strong support is expected around $42.
Silver has rallied back up, nearly touching $49 today, after coming down to the $44s.
Resistance is identified at $51 and just below $50, making $50-$51 short-term resistance.

Gold and Silver Weekly Charts Analysis

Strong support for gold is projected at $3,600, with a potential low slightly higher at $3,650-$3,700.
Initial strong support for silver is expected around $42.

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Stocks (Miners) Analysis

Silver Stocks (SIL, SILJ):

Silver stocks have shown slightly more strength than the metals, which is a positive short-term sign.
The weekly candles are described as "decent" but also indicative of a significant top.
The speaker advises against becoming bullish until silver stocks fall to lower, strong buy targets.
While a short-term bottom might have formed, another round of selling is possible in the coming weeks, which could push prices lower towards those buy targets.

Gold Stocks:

Similar to silver stocks, gold stocks have shown decent candles this week, but these also mark a significant top.
The current correction is not expected to be a short two-week correction.

Conclusion and Call to Action

The speaker concludes by stating that the current correction is not a short-term event. They encourage viewers to leave comments about their thoughts on the correction's duration and potential lows. The speaker also mentions their attendance at the New Orleans Investment Conference and invites attendees to say hello.