'You can't build peace just with Russia': Ex-EU Commissioner Moscovici on US-led Ukraine talks

Key Concepts

• European Court of Auditors (K de K): The supreme body for auditing the use of public funds in France and scrutinizing EU funds.
• Public Deficit: The difference between government spending and revenue.
• Populist Right: A political movement characterized by appeals to the common person, often against established elites.
• Multipolar World: A global system where power is distributed among multiple major poles or states.
• Misuse of Public Funds: Allegations of improper or illegal use of government money.
• High Representative for Foreign Policy: A senior EU official responsible for the EU's common foreign and security policy.
• Regularity of Public Expenditures: Ensuring that public spending adheres to legal and regulatory requirements.
• Performance Efficiency of Public Spending: Evaluating how effectively public money is used to achieve desired outcomes.
• Asymmetrical Treatment: Treating different parties in a negotiation or conflict unequally.
• European Security Guarantees: Commitments made by European nations to ensure the security of other member states.
• Frozen Assets: Assets belonging to a government or individual that are blocked and cannot be accessed.
• Joint Borrowing: A mechanism where multiple entities borrow money together.
• ECB (European Central Bank): The central bank for the Eurozone.
• GDP (Gross Domestic Product): The total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period.
• Public Debt: The total amount of money owed by a government to its creditors.
• Divergence: Differences or variations between entities.
• Credibility: The quality of being trusted and believed in.
• Sovereignty: Supreme power or authority.
• Fractured Parliament: A legislative body with no single party holding a clear majority, leading to difficulties in governance.
• Budget Deficit: The amount by which government spending exceeds revenue in a given fiscal year.

Political and Democratic Crisis in France and EU Challenges

Pierre Moscovici, former European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs and current President of the French Court of Auditors (K de K), describes the situation in France as an "unprecedented political and democratic crisis." This assessment stems from major government instability and an alarming public deficit, occurring at a time of surging populist right-wing movements and a Europe struggling to navigate an increasingly unpredictable multipolar world.

Mogherini Scandal and the European Court of Auditors

The discussion begins with the scandal surrounding Federica Mogherini, former High Representative for Foreign Policy, accused of misusing public funds. Moscovici expresses surprise, highlighting Mogherini's remarkable character, dedication, and personal integrity. He emphasizes that while accusations and probes are ongoing, her decision to step down from her role as Dean of the College of Europe demonstrates exemplary conduct when suspected of wrongdoing.

Moscovici clarifies the role of the European Court of Auditors (K de K), which he will soon join. Its purpose is twofold: to ensure the regularity of public expenditures and to judge the performance efficiency of public spending for Europe. He notes that while the Court establishes its own audit programs, he is unsure if the Mogherini case is specifically on their agenda, as a judicial probe is already underway. He stresses the principle of innocence until proven guilty, while acknowledging the need for clarity due to Mogherini's prominent past roles.

International Issues: Ukraine Negotiations and European Leverage

The conversation shifts to international affairs, specifically the negotiations surrounding Ukraine. Moscovici views the US negotiating team skipping Brussels after meeting in Moscow to go directly to Miami to meet Ukrainian negotiators as a "mistake." He argues that peace cannot be built solely with Russia and that bypassing Europeans is a significant error.

Key Arguments and Supporting Evidence:

• Asymmetrical Treatment: Moscovici criticizes the US for treating Russia and Ukraine asymmetrically, appearing to favor Russia. He points to Mr. Vitkov's (presumably referring to a US official) prior expressed preferences.
• Bypassing Europeans: He asserts that peace cannot be created without Europeans and that skipping them in negotiations undermines the EU's role.
• European Perspective: Moscovici's convictions are:
  1. Ukraine must be fully respected as it has been invaded and attacked but has resisted with immense courage.
  2. This is a European war, and Europeans must be respected.
  3. Europe needs to prepare to defend itself against potential future aggression from Russia, whether hybrid or military.

Despite the perceived lack of EU leverage, Moscovici believes that the US ultimately cannot do without Europeans, especially concerning reassurance forces and security guarantees. He is confident that the US will return to engaging with Europe, as they need to share the burden.

Frozen Russian Assets and Financing Ukraine

Regarding the issue of frozen Russian assets, Moscovici acknowledges the complexity and potential concerns of member states like Belgium regarding financial risks. He states that the primary plan (Plan A) is to utilize these assets, and the Commission is working on an effective plan to mitigate risks and heed the ECB's message. He firmly believes that the EU cannot remain inactive and must find a solution, whether Plan A or Plan B, to finance its commitments to Ukraine.

Public Finances in the EU and France

Moscovici addresses the high public debt levels in EU member states, with the average at 81.9% of GDP in October. While acknowledging it's "too high," he notes it's not as bad as during his tenure as European Commissioner, when it exceeded 90% post-COVID.

Specific Data and Divergences:

• EU Average Debt: 81.9% of GDP.
• Greece: 145% of GDP.
• Italy: 130% of GDP.
• France: Moving towards 120% of GDP.

He identifies a "French problem" due to its continuously rising debt level, significantly above the EU average and the only country where it's consistently increasing. Moscovici, in his role as President of the K de K, repeatedly stresses that France must regain control of its public finances to maintain credibility, enhance sovereignty, lead by example, and enable Europe to become a stronger economic and political power.

The French Political and Democratic Crisis

Moscovici links the public finance issue to the "political and democratic crisis" in France. He expresses hope for a budget with a deficit under 5% of GDP before the year-end, which he deems essential for trajectory. However, he believes that France's structural problems will only be addressed after 2027, the year of the next presidential elections.

Challenges to Governance:

• Fractured Parliament: The current parliament lacks a clear majority, making governance difficult.
• Need for Vision and Majority: Recovering a vision and securing a parliamentary majority are crucial for progress.

He acknowledges the Prime Minister's difficult job in navigating these conditions, describing the current situation as "muddling through."

Conclusion

The discussion highlights significant challenges facing both France and the European Union. In France, an alarming public deficit and government instability are exacerbated by a fractured political landscape, hindering the nation's ability to regain fiscal control and assert its leadership. Internationally, the EU grapples with its role in global affairs, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict, where it seeks to assert its influence and security interests. The need for fiscal responsibility, strategic engagement in international negotiations, and a unified approach to European security are recurring themes. Moscovici's perspective underscores the urgency for France to address its public finances and for the EU to solidify its position as a credible global actor.