Yemen: 'The status quo is no longer feasible', analyst says • FRANCE 24 English

Yemen Conflict: A Decade of Fragmentation and Shifting Alliances

Key Concepts:

• Houthi Movement: A Zaidi Shia Muslim group that seized control of Sanaa in 2014, initiating the Yemeni Civil War.
• Southern Transitional Council (STC): A separatist group seeking independence for South Yemen, backed primarily by the UAE.
• Internationally Recognized Government of Yemen (IRG): The government backed by Saudi Arabia, attempting to regain control of Yemen.
• Hadramaut & Mahara: Oil-rich eastern provinces of Yemen, bordering Saudi Arabia and Oman, recently seized by the STC.
• Petro Masila & Hij Oil Fields: Key oil fields in Hadramaut and Sudan respectively, central to the current power struggle.
• De-escalation: Reducing tensions and conflict, particularly regarding potential peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
• Fragmentation: The breakdown of unified political and military structures, leading to multiple competing factions.

1. Origins and Early Stages of the Conflict (2014-2016)

The war in Yemen began on September 21st, 2014, with the Houthi takeover of the capital, Sanaa. Following this, the Houthis expanded southwards, prompting a Saudi-led intervention in March 2015, at the request of the Yemeni president. The initial objective of Saudi Arabia was to dislodge the Houthis from northern Yemen and restore the internationally recognized government. However, after eight years, Saudi forces were unable to achieve this goal, securing only the south while the Houthis maintained control in the north.

2. Evolution of the Conflict: From Anti-Houthi Coalition to Fragmentation

The conflict evolved from a straightforward fight against the Houthis into a highly fragmented struggle. Muhammad Al Bashar argues the Houthis’ strength isn’t due to inherent power, but rather the disunity within the anti-Houthi coalition. This coalition comprises several competing factions: the Southern Transitional Council (STC) advocating for an independent South Yemen, the internationally recognized government seeking a unified republic, and at least eight different armies, partially supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, each with distinct agendas. This fragmentation created a power vacuum exploited by the Houthis.

3. The Rise of the Southern Transitional Council (STC)

The roots of the STC lie in the 1994 civil war following the unification of North and South Yemen, where the north allegedly took control of the south. The Hak (movement for secession in the south) was formed in 2007. With the intervention of the Saudi and UAE-led coalition in 2015, southern groups gained prominence. In 2017, the STC was established with UAE backing, quickly becoming the most cohesive southern political and military force.

4. Regional Power Involvement: Saudi Arabia and the UAE

The involvement of Saudi Arabia and the UAE significantly reshaped Yemen’s political landscape. Initially, they cooperated in the anti-Houthi coalition. However, their interests diverged, particularly after the Gaza war. The prospect of de-escalation and potential peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis caused concern among the STC and other anti-Houthi elements, fearing they would be excluded from any future power-sharing arrangement.

The UAE focused on supporting the STC, while Saudi Arabia prioritized de-escalation with the Houthis. This divergence culminated in the recent STC military expansion into eastern Yemen, specifically Hadramaut and Mahara, controlling the wealthiest oil fields in Yemen (Petro Masila). This move was intended to strengthen their negotiating position.

5. The Significance of Hadramaut and Mahara

Hadramaut and Mahara are strategically important because they border Saudi Arabia and Oman. Control of these provinces, particularly their oil fields, provides the STC with significant economic and political leverage. Riyad views the STC’s expansion into these areas as a red line, reminiscent of historical tensions dating back to the 1960s and 1970s, when South Yemen had independence and engaged in conflicts with Saudi Arabia and Oman.

6. Erosion of the Internationally Recognized Government’s Authority

The internationally recognized government, backed by Saudi Arabia, has struggled to establish authority due to the Houthi takeover of the conventional military in 2014 and the challenges of building new institutions during wartime. The STC’s stance – supporting the fight against the Houthis but demanding independence if Saudi Arabia pursues peace – further undermined the government’s position.

7. Recent Developments: Saudi Strikes and Potential for Escalation

Saudi Arabia recently launched airstrikes on STC forces in Hadramaut and Mahara as a warning to withdraw. This action signals Riyad’s willingness to use force to prevent the STC from consolidating control over eastern Yemen. Saudi Arabia has begun issuing military statements indicating a potential air campaign.

8. Entangled Regional Dynamics: Sudan, Somalia, and Israel

The situation in Yemen is intertwined with broader regional dynamics. Parallel to the events in Yemen, UAE-backed forces in Sudan captured a significant oil field. This led to speculation about a retaliatory response from Saudi Arabia, potentially involving sanctions against the UAE. Furthermore, Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland is seen as potentially enabling attacks against the Houthis in Yemen.

9. Impact on the Houthis and Future Scenarios

The current conflict benefits the Houthis, who remain suspiciously quiet, avoiding taking sides in the dispute between the STC and the Saudi-backed government. They are strategically positioned to exploit the fragmentation of their opponents.

Three potential scenarios are outlined:

• STC Backtrack: A political settlement is reached regarding the “Southern Question.”
• Status Quo: Continued low-intensity conflict.
• Full-Scale War: Escalation leading to a power vacuum exploited by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Houthis.

Notable Quote:

“The Houthis are powerful today, not because of their divine intervention like they like to call it, but it's because the anti-HIY coalition is fragmented.” – Muhammad Al Bashar

10. Conclusion

After ten years of war, Yemen is at a critical juncture. The status quo is unsustainable, and the actions of various actors are driving the country towards an uncertain future. The conflict is deeply entangled with regional power struggles, and the potential for further escalation remains high. The coming days will determine whether Yemen moves towards stabilization or descends into a new phase of fragmentation, potentially benefiting the Houthis and extremist groups like AQAP.