Yemen’s STC leader al-Zubaidi saw Riyadh trip as ‘political suicide’: Analysis

Yemen Conflict: Saudi-STC Confrontation & Potential for Escalation

Key Concepts:

• Southern Transitional Council (STC): A Yemeni political organization advocating for the independence of South Yemen.
• Idarus Al-Zubedi: President of the STC and a key figure in the southern separatist movement.
• Presidential Leadership Council (PLC): Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
• Saudi-led Coalition: Military alliance led by Saudi Arabia involved in the Yemeni Civil War.
• UAE (United Arab Emirates): Previously a key backer of the STC, recently withdrew support following Saudi pressure.
• Insurgency/Guerilla Warfare: Prolonged periods of rebellion against an established government or ruling power.
• Diplomatic Breakthrough: A significant positive development in negotiations or conflict resolution.

1. Escalation of Conflict & Saudi Response

The Saudi-led coalition conducted “limited preemptive strikes” in Alal, southern Yemen, targeting a camp reportedly used by Idarus Al-Zubedi, President of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), to arm and rally forces. These strikes occurred shortly before Al-Zubedi was scheduled to travel to Riyadh for peace talks. Hospital sources reported at least four civilian deaths. The coalition stated Al-Zubedi’s whereabouts are unknown, while the STC claims he remains in Aden. This action represents a significant escalation in tensions between the Saudi-led coalition and the STC, following Saudi demands for the UAE to withdraw its support for the separatists, which the UAE complied with.

2. Background of Idarus Al-Zubedi & the STC

Idarus Al-Zubedi is a prominent Yemeni political figure with a military background, having served as an Air Force officer and in the Special Security Forces. He became President of the STC in 2017 and has consistently pushed for international recognition of South Yemen’s sovereignty. The STC aims for an independent South Yemen, garnering support from a segment of the population disillusioned with the ongoing conflict and seeking self-determination. The nuances of support for secession vary across the south, with urban areas like Aden and tribal communities in Shabwa, Bala, and Abian holding differing motivations.

3. Failed Diplomatic Overture & Al-Zubedi’s Actions

The planned trip to Riyadh represented a potential “diplomatic coup” for Saudi Arabia, as securing Al-Zubedi’s participation in talks would have been a major breakthrough in resolving the Yemeni conflict. However, Al-Zubedi reportedly feared imprisonment upon arrival and attempted to delay his departure while repositioning troops and equipment in Adala. The coalition intercepted these movements, leading to the strikes. This action has been described as “political suicide” by Hisham Ali, as it positions Al-Zubedi as leading an insurgency. Consequently, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) issued a decree removing him from the PLC and declared him a fugitive, accusing him of high treason.

4. Military Capabilities & Potential for Prolonged Conflict

The STC possesses a well-equipped and trained fighting force, backed by the UAE for a considerable period. Estimates suggest “thousands of fighters,” including an elite force known as Zubedi’s Guard, were being repositioned in Adala, potentially to stage a takeover of the PLC and assert Al-Zubedi’s authority. However, moving forces to rural areas is now considered too risky due to coalition monitoring capabilities. Al-Zubedi is expected to transition to urban centers and launch a guerilla warfare campaign against the government of Rashad Alimi. The Saudis possess significant political and financial leverage to potentially sway support away from Al-Zubedi and encourage participation in negotiations.

5. Internal Divisions within the STC & Regional Backing

Despite Al-Zubedi’s defiance, a split within the STC is emerging, with a delegation sent to Riyadh for talks despite his refusal to attend. This indicates a willingness among some STC members to engage in dialogue. Hisham Ali suggests Al-Zubedi received “green light” from regional backers before escalating the situation, implying continued external support for the separatist movement. The situation is further complicated by the varying interests of different southern groups, with those in Mahra having closer ties to Saudi Arabia and less enthusiasm for complete independence.

6. Potential Outcomes & Risks

The current situation presents a high risk of prolonged conflict. Al-Zubedi is reportedly willing to endure significant costs to continue the fight for southern independence. Hisham Ali warns that Al-Zubedi could replicate the Houthi’s playbook from the north, leveraging civilian casualties from potential coalition airstrikes to garner popular support. The Saudis are attempting to isolate Al-Zubedi by peeling away his partners and supporters, but the possibility of a long-winded insurgency remains.

7. Notable Quotes

• “Having Idarus Zubedi, the leader of the separatist in Riyad would have been the biggest diplomatic breakthrough for Saudis as far as Yemen is concerned in many, many, many, many years.” – Hashem
• “By doing that [attempting to reposition troops], he basically indicated that he is going to be leading an insurgency inside the country which basically led the presidential leadership council to issue a decree ousting him from the PLC but also he’s basically right now a fugitive.” – Hisham Ali
• “He has a playbook that he can follow [from the Houthis in the north] and he could just try and replicate that in his areas under his control or under his influence.” – Hisham Ali

8. Data & Statistics

• At least four civilians were killed in the Saudi-led coalition strikes in Alal.
• The STC is believed to command “thousands of fighters,” including an elite force known as Zubedi’s Guard.

Conclusion:

The situation in southern Yemen is highly volatile, marked by a breakdown in diplomatic efforts and a potential shift towards prolonged conflict. The Saudi-led coalition’s response to Idarus Al-Zubedi’s actions has escalated tensions and positioned him as a fugitive leading an insurgency. While internal divisions within the STC offer a potential avenue for negotiation, the risk of a protracted and bloody conflict remains significant, particularly if the coalition resorts to forceful measures that result in civilian casualties. The involvement of regional backers and the complex political landscape further complicate the situation, making a resolution challenging and uncertain.