Yemen's Hadramout to launch 'peaceful operation' to reclaim military sites | REUTERS

Key Concepts

• Southern Transitional Council (STC): A separatist movement in Yemen, backed by the UAE, seeking independence for South Yemen.
• Hajamount Province: A province in Yemen where tensions are currently escalating between the STC and the Saudi-backed government.
• Homeland Shield Forces: Military forces under the command of Governor Salm Ahmed Sahed al-Kunbashi, tasked with restoring order.
• Saudi Arabia & UAE Divergence: Growing geopolitical and economic disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, impacting the Yemen conflict.
• Aden International Airport: The primary airport serving areas of Yemen not controlled by the Houthi movement, currently experiencing a shutdown.

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Escalating Tensions in Yemen: A Breakdown of Recent Developments

The situation in Yemen is experiencing a significant escalation, characterized by a growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and a resulting power struggle in the south. On Friday, the Governor of Yemen’s Hajamount province, Salm Ahmed Sahed al-Kunbashi, announced the initiation of a “peaceful operation” aimed at reclaiming military positions currently held by the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC). Crucially, this action was explicitly stated not to be a declaration of war, though it represents a clear challenge to the STC’s authority.

Saudi-UAE Divide & Proxy Conflict

This escalation is directly linked to a deepening divergence of interests between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, a trend observable since December. Once considered key allies and “twin pillars of regional security,” the two Gulf powers now find themselves at odds regarding issues ranging from oil production quotas to broader geopolitical influence within the region. This disagreement manifests in Yemen through their support for opposing sides in the ongoing conflict. Saudi Arabia continues to back the internationally recognized Yemeni government, while the UAE provides support – including military aid – to the STC.

STC Assertiveness & Saudi Response

The STC’s recent seizure of significant territory in southern Yemen last month was perceived as a direct threat to the Saudi-backed government’s authority. This prompted Saudi Arabia to demand the UAE withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen within a 24-hour timeframe last week. The UAE complied, marking a particularly public and severe breakdown in relations between the two nations. Governor al-Kunbashi’s appointment to command the Homeland Shield Forces, granting him full military security and administrative authority, is a direct response to the STC’s actions and a demonstration of Saudi Arabia’s commitment to supporting the Yemeni government.

STC Counter-Response & Airport Shutdown

The STC has responded to the announced operation by placing its forces on full alert and declaring readiness to respond “forcefully.” Simultaneously, Adden International Airport, the main gateway for regions of Yemen outside Houthi control, remains shut down following a halt in flights that began on Thursday and continued into Friday. Both sides are currently engaged in a blame game regarding responsibility for the air traffic shutdown, further exacerbating the already tense situation. The closure of Aden Airport significantly impacts humanitarian aid delivery and civilian travel.

Implications & Future Outlook

The current situation highlights the fragility of the existing power dynamics in Yemen and the potential for further escalation. The withdrawal of UAE forces, while seemingly a concession to Saudi Arabia, does not necessarily diminish the UAE’s influence through its continued support of the STC. The announced “peaceful operation” by Governor al-Kunbashi, despite its phrasing, carries the risk of escalating into a full-blown conflict between the STC and forces loyal to the Yemeni government. The ongoing dispute over Aden International Airport underscores the practical consequences of this escalating tension, impacting essential services and potentially hindering peace efforts.