Year-End Macro Wrap | Macro Mondays: December 22, 2025

Macro Mondays - Year End Review & 2026 Outlook (Dec 18, 2025)

Key Concepts:

• Bitwise: A crypto asset manager with over $10 billion in client assets, known for donating profits to network developers.
• ISM PMI: Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers' Index – a key economic indicator.
• Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR): A bank regulation impacting risk-taking capacity.
• Procyclicality: Economic trends that amplify existing cycles (e.g., expansion or contraction).
• Having Cycle (Bitcoin): The roughly four-year period between Bitcoin halvings, historically associated with price cycles.
• UI Path: A company specializing in Robotic Process Automation (RPA) and AI-driven automation.
• Light QE: A less conventional form of Quantitative Easing, potentially referring to adjustments in bank reserve requirements.

I. Introduction & Bitwise Sponsorship

The show begins with a sponsorship message for Bitwise, a crypto asset manager with over $10 billion in assets under management. Bitwise distinguishes itself by donating a percentage of profits from Bitcoin and Ethereum funds to the developers maintaining those networks, embodying a philosophy of ecosystem-wide benefit. Their website is bitwiseinvestments.com.

II. Year-End Reflection & 2025 Overview

Mikl Osman and Andreas Steno Larsen reflect on a “crazy” year in global macro, acknowledging both successes and failures in their predictions. They preview their upcoming year-end/beginning-of-year portfolio update for Real Vision Pro subscribers, a 50-page report outlining eight investment thematics for 2026. They also promote the Real Vision Crypto Gathering in Miami Beach (January 22-25). A standard disclaimer is issued, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty in market predictions.

III. The Reddit Prediction & Bitcoin Cycles

Mikl highlights a Reddit post from December 12, 2023, accurately predicting a Bitcoin cycle peak around October 6, 2025. Andreas attributes this potential accuracy to the Bitcoin having cycle, but expresses skepticism about its long-term validity as Bitcoin matures and becomes more integrated into the broader macro landscape with increased institutional participation (BlackRock, retail funds, wealth funds). He suggests liquidity and the business cycle may become more dominant drivers of Bitcoin’s price. He posits a potential next all-time high for Bitcoin around July 25, 2028, but Mikl expresses impatience for a sooner peak.

IV. Key Events of 2025

Andreas summarizes key events of 2025: the Trump inauguration, “Liberation Day” (unspecified event), the Iran-Israel conflict, and ongoing challenges in China.

V. DeepSeek, Nvidia & AI Capex Cycle

Andreas identifies their successful call on Nvidia amidst the DeepSeek selloff as a highlight of the year. While DeepSeek suggested cheaper AI model training, they correctly predicted this would accelerate the AI capex cycle, not derail it. He notes even small municipalities are now purchasing Nvidia chips (H200s), demonstrating widespread demand. This illustrates the commoditization of AI doesn’t diminish the need for investment, but rather expands it.

VI. Portfolio Performance & Shifting Returns

The discussion shifts to portfolio performance. The portfolio was up nearly 70% at its peak but ended the year around 30-35%. Mikl jokingly refers to the year transitioning from a “Lambo year” to a “Mercedes year” (he purchased a Mercedes).

VII. Regional Market Disparities & Procyclicality

Andreas analyzes performance disparities between US and European/Asian markets, using Bloomberg ticker data. Korea (EWY) and Poland (EWP) outperformed the US (SPY). He attributes this to semiconductor strength (Korea) and potential reconstruction funds flowing into Poland (Ukraine rebuilding). Spain (EWP) benefited from a strong banking sector. He emphasizes a procyclical environment, with steeper yield curves and potential rate cuts globally, favoring cyclical assets. He believes the US labor market is improving, with positive trends in job postings and temporary hiring. He suggests this procyclicality favored “boomer assets” like banks over Bitcoin.

VIII. European Debt & Government Spending

Mikl raises concerns about rising government debt levels in Europe, particularly in Germany, France, and Italy, linked to stimulus spending. He questions the sustainability of this approach and its potential impact on interest rates.

IX. UI Path, Robotics & AI Automation

Andreas highlights UI Path as a compelling investment, positioned at the intersection of AI and robotics. He believes automating decision-making (beyond manual tasks) will be a key driver of productivity gains, particularly in financial services and consulting.

X. Listener Questions & Trade Examples

• Casper’s ISM Question: Andreas dismisses Casper’s persistent question about when the ISM PMI will cross 50, citing the index’s sensitivity to tariffs and its differing composition compared to the S&P PMI.
• Best/Worst Trade: Andreas identifies Regeti Computing (up 250%) as the best performing stock, a narrative-driven trade with no current profitability. Drone Shield (Australia) was both the best and worst trade, with initial gains of 300% eroded by insider selling, leaving the portfolio up around 40%.
• Drones & Modern Warfare: A video illustrating the extensive use of drones and fiber optic cables in the Ukraine conflict is shown, highlighting the growing importance of this sector and potential capex opportunities.

XI. 2026 Outlook & Risks

Andreas anticipates a “meltup” in the first half of 2026, driven by easing bank regulations (specifically, changes to Supplementary Leverage Ratios - SLR). He cautions that easing regulations increases systemic risk and the potential severity of a future downturn. He believes the economic cycle may peak in 2026, making 2027 more challenging.

XII. Final Thoughts & Promotion

The hosts reiterate the importance of staying informed and active in the Real Vision community. They encourage viewers to subscribe, follow them on social media, and engage with content. They express optimism for the year ahead, despite acknowledging the inherent risks.

Technical Terms Explained:

• PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index): An economic indicator derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies, indicating business conditions.
• Capex (Capital Expenditure): Funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets such as property, plants, buildings, technology, and equipment.
• QE (Quantitative Easing): A monetary policy where a central bank purchases government bonds or other assets to increase the money supply and lower interest rates.
• SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio): A regulatory requirement for banks, limiting the amount of assets they can hold relative to their capital.
• RPA (Robotic Process Automation): Technology that allows businesses to automate repetitive tasks using software robots.

This summary aims to be comprehensive and detailed, preserving the original language and technical precision of the transcript. It includes specific details, examples, and arguments presented by Mikl Osman and Andreas Steno Larsen.