Yale report finds evidence of RSF mass killings in Sudan’s el-Fasher

Key Concepts

• Rapid Support Forces (RSF): Paramilitary group in Sudan, emerged from Janjaweed militia.
• Alfasir: City in North Darfur, Sudan, recently taken over by RSF.
• Ethnic Cleansing: Systematic elimination of a group of people based on their ethnicity.
• Satellite Imagery Analysis: Using satellite photos to detect and analyze events on the ground.
• Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health: Organization that analyzes satellite imagery for humanitarian crises.
• Janjaweed: Government-allied militia in Darfur, known for atrocities.
• United Arab Emirates (UAE): Accused of providing support to the RSF.
• Sudan Armed Forces (SAF): The official army of Sudan.

Alfasir Crisis: RSF Takeover and Allegations of Mass Killings

This report details the dire situation in Alfasir, North Darfur, Sudan, following the Rapid Support Forces' (RSF) takeover of the city. The transcript highlights the immediate aftermath of the RSF's control, characterized by sounds of gunfire and verified mobile footage showing RSF fighters near the bodies of individuals who attempted to cross barricades during the RSF's 17-month siege.

RSF Denials and Resistance Committee Claims

The RSF has denied the authenticity of the videos, labeling them as fabricated. However, Alfasir's resistance committee asserts that a significant portion of the estimated quarter of a million people who resided in Alfasir have been killed.

Historical Context of RSF Atrocities

The RSF's origins are traced back to the Janjaweed, a government-allied militia active in Darfur since the conflict's eruption in 2003. The transcript emphasizes a history of RSF involvement in genocidal acts against specific ethnic groups over the past two decades, with varying intensity. The current events are described as a "certainty" that could have been prevented. The RSF is also accused of sexual violence, forced displacement, and extrajudicial killings in areas previously under its control before being pushed out by the army.

Escalation in Darfur and Kordofan with Alleged UAE Support

The RSF has intensified its offensives in Darfur and Kordofan. Monitors suggest this escalation is facilitated by increased support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has been accused of backing the RSF.

Peace Negotiations and RSF Territorial Ambitions

The RSF's latest offensives coincide with reports of ceasefire negotiations in the US. These talks aim to bridge the divide between the Sudanese army and the RSF. However, the RSF appears intent on maximizing territorial gains before any agreement is reached.

Satellite Imagery Evidence of Mass Killings

New images analyzed by Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab provide potential evidence of the scale of violence in Alfasir. Satellite imagery taken after the RSF's advance reveals:

• Large clusters of objects: Consistent with the size of human bodies and technical vehicles in multiple locations.
• Red discoloration: Large areas of red patches on the ground, interpreted as potential pools of blood, which were not present in pre-RSF advance imagery.
• Objects outside Alfasir: Further clusters of objects consistent with human bodies have been observed outside the city, corroborating reports of civilians being shot while attempting to flee.

Expert Analysis: Ethnic Cleansing and Unprecedented Violence

Nathaniel Raymond, Executive Director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health, provides a stark assessment:

• Conclusion: Since the RSF took control of Alfasir over 48 hours prior, there have been "house-to-house clearance operations" and "clear evidence of mass killings visible in satellite imagery that corroborates videos from the ground." Raymond explicitly states, "In short, what we are seeing is ethnic cleansing."
• Scale and Velocity of Violence: Raymond, with 15 years of satellite work and over 25 years as a war crimes investigator, states he has "not seen the velocity and ferocity of the violence that we're witnessing in the past day and a half in any other setting I've investigated in my entire career."
• Visible Evidence: The satellite imagery shows objects measuring between 1.5 to 2 meters (the standard length of a human body lying horizontally) littering the city, which were not present 36 to 48 hours prior. This evidence is observed in various locations, including earth berms, specific neighborhoods like Deroula, and hospitals/humanitarian facilities.
• Historical Pattern: Raymond reiterates that the RSF has a "2 and a half years of evidence of rapid support forces commitment to attacking Fur Masalit, Zagawa, and Berti people across the regions of Darfur." He notes that this includes ground photos and RSF videos celebrating killings.
• Preview for Other Regions: Raymond expresses concern that other parts of Sudan will suffer the same fate. He highlights that the "campaign of mass killing" in Alfasir was "warned about in excruciating detail" by the Humanitarian Research Lab and other organizations for months. He warns that this could be a preview for events in Kordofan, El Obeid, Dilling, and Kadugli, which could face sieges as the RSF advances eastward.

Sudanese Army's Position and Potential Ramifications

The transcript notes that the Sudanese army is significantly on the defensive. Recent reports indicate that the remnants of the SAF's Sixth Division in Alfasir appear to have retreated west towards Tila and into Jeb Mara. This development is concerning because many who fled Zamzam and Alfasir have sought refuge in Tila, and there is a risk of the RSF pursuing them.

International Community's Role and UAE's Involvement

The report raises the question of what the international community should be doing. A Wall Street Journal report is cited, revealing US intelligence documents that provide "conclusive proof of an escalating pipeline of weapons from the United Arab Emirates, including advanced drone technology, to the rapid support forces."

• UAE as Main Backer: Based on US government documents, the UAE is identified as the "main backer" providing the RSF with the "technical and logistical means to win this fight in Alfasir."
• Absence of Pressure: The transcript suggests that the "absence of pressure by the United Kingdom, the United States, and other governments on UAE is allowing the killing we see in Alashra from space to continue."

Conclusion

The situation in Alfasir represents a severe humanitarian crisis, with credible evidence pointing to mass killings and ethnic cleansing by the RSF. The historical context of RSF atrocities, coupled with alleged international support from the UAE, underscores the urgency for international intervention and pressure to halt the violence and protect civilians. The fall of Alfasir also poses a significant threat to other regions in Sudan.