Xi's Southeast Asia tour: Chinese president arrives in Kuala Lumpur for 3-day state visit

Key Concepts

• Xi Jinping's Southeast Asian tour (Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia)
• China-ASEAN relations
• US-China trade war and its impact on ASEAN
• Malaysia-China bilateral relations
• Vietnam-China bilateral relations
• ASEAN's coordinated response to US tariffs
• Multilateralism vs. Unilateralism
• Geoeconomic challenges

Xi Jinping's Visit to Malaysia

• Significance: Xi Jinping's visit to Malaysia is highly significant, marking his first visit in 12 years.
• Welcome: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim personally welcomed Xi Jinping at the airport with a cultural performance.
• Official Program: The official program includes an audience with the King at the National Palace and a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Anwar at his official residence.
• Agreements: A host of agreements and MOUs are expected to be signed, but the specifics are not yet known.
• Objectives:
  • Xi Jinping aims to deepen the tradition of friendship with Malaysia, enhance political mutual trust, and advance cooperation in modernization.
  • Anwar Ibrahim hopes to deepen trade and investment ties with China and secure greater access to the Chinese market for Malaysian products like durian.
• Economic Ties: China has been Malaysia's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years. Malaysia hopes to address geoeconomic challenges and cushion the impact of US tariffs. A full 24% tariff implementation by the US would be detrimental.
• Areas of Cooperation: Digital economy, green economy, renewable energy, and tourism are areas for enhanced cooperation.
• Tourism: There were nearly 6 million mutual visits between Malaysia and China last year. The mutual visa exemption (up to one month) is expected to increase this number.

Xi Jinping's Visit to Vietnam

• Significance: The trip is framed as significant not just bilaterally but also for the Southeast Asian region.
• Focus: Xi Jinping focused on "practical cooperation" with Vietnam.
• Agreements: 45 cooperation agreements were signed, including in areas like artificial intelligence and trade of agricultural products.
• Science and Technology: Cooperation in science and technology is considered a "bright spot."
• Rail Connectivity:
  • A joint railway cooperation mechanism was launched to speed up cross-border railway projects.
  • A railway project from Lao Cai (Vietnam's border with China's Yunnan province) through Hanoi to Haiphong port is planned.
  • Both sides agreed to implement a feasibility study and start construction soon, accelerating the study of a connection plan at the border.
  • The railway is expected to cost $8 billion USD, with Vietnam getting approval to partially fund it through Chinese loans.
  • Analysts believe this project will boost trade and the flow of people and goods and have political significance.
• Terms: Vietnam's party chief called for China to offer favorable terms for concessional loans, technology transfer, and human resources training.
• Opposition to Unilateralism: Xi Jinping urged Vietnamese leaders to oppose what he called Washington's "unilateral bullying."
• Joint Statement: Both sides agreed to uphold multilateralism and jointly oppose hegemony, power politics, and unilateralism in all forms.
• CPTPP: The Vietnamese side supports China's ascension to the CPTPP, given that the necessary requirements and procedures are met.

US-China Trade War and ASEAN's Response

• US Tariffs: The US has imposed 145% duties on Chinese goods. China exported $450 billion in goods to the US last year, leading to economists downgrading China's growth forecast.
• China's Strategy: Xi Jinping is on a "charm offensive" to find alternative markets to ensure China's economic growth.
• Vietnam's Negotiations: Vietnam is negotiating with the US for reprieve on its 46% duties on Vietnamese exports. China wants to ensure its interests are not compromised.
• ASEAN's Coordinated Response: Malaysia, as the ASEAN chair, is calling for a coordinated response from the 10-member bloc to Washington's threatened tariffs.
• ASEAN's Dialogue: ASEAN economic ministers have agreed to engage with the US in a frank and constructive dialogue and avoid retaliatory actions.
• China's Position: Xi Jinping wants to impress upon Anwar and ASEAN partners that China is a reliable partner that upholds multilateral rules-based trading systems and stands in solidarity with ASEAN against US protectionism and unilateralism.
• ASEAN's Challenge: Anwar admitted that it is increasingly difficult for ASEAN to showcase its centrality as Xi Jinping undertakes a three-country Southeast Asian tour to win greater influence.
• ASEAN's Stance: ASEAN must remain steadfast in staying non-aligned and open for business with everyone, including the US and China. Malaysia's trade delegation is seeking an appointment with the Trump administration to begin negotiations in Washington before the 90-day pause expires.

Synthesis/Conclusion

Xi Jinping's Southeast Asian tour is a strategic move to strengthen regional cooperation and counter the impact of the US-China trade war. He is seeking to build stronger bilateral ties with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, focusing on economic cooperation, infrastructure development, and a shared opposition to unilateralism. ASEAN, led by Malaysia, faces the challenge of maintaining its centrality and coordinating a unified response to US trade policies while navigating the complex dynamics of the US-China rivalry. The visit highlights the growing importance of Southeast Asia in the global geopolitical landscape and the increasing competition for influence in the region.