Xi, Kim and Putin: A new world alliance? – Global News Podcast, BBC World Service

Key Concepts

• Evolving Alliance: The formation of a stronger alliance between China, Russia, and North Korea.
• Military Parades: Displays of military hardware and personnel used to project power and send messages.
• XI Jinping's Leadership: Xi's domestic control, international image, and strategic goals.
• Kim Jong-un's Motivations: Kim's desire to escape isolation, gain economic support, and increase leverage with the West.
• Putin's Objectives: Putin's ambition to reshape the world order, gather the "global South," and counter Western influence.
• Threat Assessments: Individual country threat assessments driving the evolving alliance.
• Nuclear Capabilities: The development and implications of North Korea's nuclear program.
• Counter Contingency Planning: Military planning to counter aggression from China, North Korea, and Russia.

Analysis of the Beijing Parade and Trilateral Meeting

Introduction

The BBC World Service's Global News Podcast analyzes the significance of the military parade in Beijing, attended by Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong-un. The discussion focuses on the implications of this trilateral meeting and the evolving alliance between these nations.

Perspectives on the Parade

• Jeanne McKenzie (BBC's Seoul Correspondent): The most striking moment was seeing Kim Jong-un alongside Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, elevating him to the level of major world players despite his isolation.
• Olga Ivashina (BBC Russian Service): Putin's red-carpet welcome, broadcasted repeatedly on Russian TV, sent a powerful message that he is not isolated and is seen as a leader of a mighty country by many. This counters Western narratives of diplomatic and economic blockade.
• Stephen McDonell (BBC's China Correspondent): The parade's exclusivity and the overzealous security measures highlight the often-ridiculous nature of control in China.
• Mikey Kaye (BBC News Security Brief): The sheer volume of military capability on display, particularly new technologies like autonomous drones and ICBMs, signals a deliberate statement of intent and an evolving alliance challenging the West.

XI Jinping's Domestic and International Image

• Xi Jinping is portrayed as a "mystery man" who gives little away and is feared within the Chinese Communist Party due to his anti-corruption crackdown, which was used to eliminate political rivals.
• He is surrounded by "yes men" in the Politburo Standing Committee, with limited representation from other factions or women.
• Ordinary Chinese people affectionately call him "Xi Dada" (Uncle Xi).
• Other leaders have nicknames: Kim Jong-un is called "Kim Fatty the Third" (Jin Sanpang), and Vladimir Putin is called "Poo Daddy" (Emperor Putin).

Kim Jong-un's Goals and Strategies

• Kim Jong-un consolidated power ruthlessly after his father's unexpected death, purging rivals, including his uncle.
• North Korea is an incredibly isolated country due to its authoritarian dictatorship and nuclear weapons program.
• Kim's support for Putin's war in Ukraine has provided an opportunity to escape isolation by selling weapons and sending soldiers in exchange for money.
• Kim's presence in Beijing aimed to repair relations with China, secure economic support, and establish himself as a powerful statesman alongside Xi and Putin, sending a message to the West that he is not isolated.
• The presence of his daughter suggests he is grooming her as his successor to avoid the difficulties he faced when he took power unexpectedly.

Vladimir Putin's Objectives and Vision

• Putin aims to position himself as the leader of an alternative world order, gathering the "global South" to counterbalance Western influence.
• He seeks to rebuild the Soviet Union in some form and is unhappy with the current world order where the West prevails.
• Russian media portrays him as the mastermind behind this gathering, even during his visit to China.

Military Implications and Threat Assessments

• Mikey Kaye emphasizes that the evolving alliance is driven by individual country threat assessments.
• Russia has outsourced drone capabilities to China and relies on North Korea for troops and ballistic missiles.
• Kim Jong-un benefits from improved standing with Xi and Putin and can offer military support.
• Xi Jinping uses the relationship to lean on North Korea and Russia in case of aggression towards Taiwan, given the US military presence in the region.
• The alliance poses an increased threat to the West, particularly if Donald Trump's isolationist policies weaken NATO.

North Korea's Military Capabilities

• Kim Jong-un has prioritized building up North Korea's nuclear program, despite international sanctions.
• North Korea has made significant progress in developing ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
• The three key components required to develop a nuclear capability are: the ability to enrich uranium or plutonium, building a warhead, and a delivery system.
• The long pole in the tent for North Korea is the development of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability to reach the US.

Conclusion

The Beijing parade and the trilateral meeting between Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong-un signify an evolving alliance with significant implications for the global balance of power. The leaders have individual motivations, but their collective actions pose a challenge to the West and require careful analysis and counter-contingency planning. The development of North Korea's nuclear capabilities further complicates the situation, demanding a comprehensive understanding of the evolving threat landscape.