Would these missiles be the game-changer for Ukraine on the battlefield? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Tomahawk Missiles: Long-range cruise missiles, capable of striking deep into enemy territory.
• Mediator Role: Donald Trump's positioning as a facilitator for peace between Russia and Ukraine.
• Budapest Memorandum (1994): An agreement where Russia guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for Ukraine relinquishing its nuclear weapons.
• International Arrest Warrant for Putin: An obstacle to Putin traveling to countries that are signatories to the International Criminal Court.
• Strategic Depth: The ability to absorb an attack and still maintain offensive capabilities, often achieved through distance from the front lines.
• Game Changer: A development or weapon that significantly alters the course of a conflict.
• Qualitatively Different Escalation: A significant and fundamental increase in the nature or intensity of a conflict.
• Leverage: The ability to influence negotiations through the possession of something valuable or the threat of its use.

Summary

Ukraine's Request for Tomahawk Missiles and Trump's Stance

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the White House seeking access to US-made Tomahawk missiles. While President Donald Trump did not commit to providing these long-range weapons, he also did not rule out their future delivery. Zelensky expressed the need for Tomahawks, highlighting the US's strong missile production capabilities and suggesting collaboration to strengthen American production, potentially through Ukraine's drone manufacturing.

Trump, however, appeared reluctant to supply the missiles, stating they are needed within the US. Instead, he has positioned himself as a mediator, aiming to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, drawing parallels to his perceived success in the Middle East.

Trump's Mediation Efforts and Potential Peace Summit

Trump described his role as a "mediator president," emphasizing the need for understanding and cooperation between the parties involved. He suggested a meeting involving himself, the Russian President, and the Ukrainian President.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has offered to host a summit. However, obstacles exist, including the international arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin and the historical context of Budapest for Ukrainians, which is associated with broken promises stemming from the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. This memorandum saw Russia guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear arsenal.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has indicated that a meeting between Russia and the US could occur within two weeks or slightly later, with both sides agreeing on the urgency of such talks. Following his meeting with Zelensky, Trump posted on social media advocating for Russia and Ukraine to reach a deal, suggesting Moscow retain the territory it has occupied. Zelensky returned to Ukraine without the Tomahawk missiles, with Trump hoping for a resolution between the two nations.

Analysis of Tomahawk Missiles as a Battlefield Game Changer

Frank Ledwitch, a senior lecturer in strategic studies at Portsmouth University and former UK military intelligence officer, provided an analysis of the potential impact of Tomahawk missiles on the battlefield.

• Range and Target Accessibility: Ledwitch acknowledged the long-range capability of Tomahawks, which can strike targets twice the distance between Kyiv and Moscow, bringing a significantly larger number of targets within range.
• Quantity and Battlefield Impact: He argued that the missiles would not be a "game changer" for Ukraine because the quantity provided would likely be insufficient to make a substantial difference, especially on the battlefield, which he identified as the war's "center of gravity."
• Formidable Weapons, Not Decisive: While recognizing Tomahawks as formidable weapons, Ledwitch likened them to "a bomb on the end of a rocket," similar to other weapon systems like Storm Shadow. He provided context by citing the US firing 60 cruise missiles at a research center in Damascus in 2018, which was back in service within weeks, illustrating the need for a large number of missiles to make a significant impact on even a single important target.
• Potential Targets: He suggested that potential targets for Tomahawks could include drone production facilities, fuel production facilities, refineries, and research centers, posing a threat but not being a decisive factor.

Russian Concerns Regarding Tomahawk Missiles

Ledwitch also addressed Russia's apprehension about the US supplying Ukraine with Tomahawks, which Moscow views as a "qualitatively different escalation."

• US Involvement: A primary concern for Russia is the extensive US support required for the operation and targeting of Tomahawks, particularly for strikes deep within Russia. This level of involvement would directly engage the US, a significant political consideration.
• Nuclear Warhead Potential: A secondary, though significant, concern for Russia is the theoretical capability of Tomahawks to be armed with nuclear warheads, which engages with Russian nuclear doctrine.
• Rhetorical vs. Actual Threat: Ledwitch concluded that Russia's primary concerns are the potential for increased US involvement and the theoretical nuclear capability of the missiles, rather than the missiles as standalone weapon systems.

Analysis of Zelensky's Empty-Handed Departure and Potential Summit Logistics

Constantine Agat, a GW Russian affairs analyst, offered insights into Zelensky's visit and the complexities of a potential peace summit.

• Strategic Delay by Trump: Agat suggested that Zelensky did not receive promises of Tomahawk deliveries before a potential summit with Putin because Trump wants to maintain these weapons as "prize dangling" and leverage for his negotiations with Putin. Trump's desire to be seen as a global peacemaker is a key motivation.
• Unpredictability of the Administration: Agat noted the unpredictable nature of the current US administration, sometimes deliberately so.
• Budapest as a Venue: Regarding Budapest as a potential summit location, Agat highlighted several challenges:
  • Logistical Difficulties for Putin: Traveling to Budapest, a capital of an EU and NATO country, presents significant logistical hurdles for Putin due to airspace restrictions over NATO and EU territories. Even indirect routes via Black Sea and Adriatic airspace would still involve NATO countries.
  • Symbolic Taint for Ukrainians: Budapest carries negative historical connotations for Ukrainians due to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, representing a history of broken promises.
  • Zelensky's Political Risk: Agat believes Zelensky would face immense political difficulty in sitting down with Putin while Russian missiles continue to strike Ukrainian cities. Such a meeting could be exploited by Putin, leaving Zelensky appearing to have achieved nothing.
• Putin's Tactic: Agat posited that Putin's strategy is to prolong his interaction with the US as long as Trump believes a deal is possible.

The discussion concluded by noting the historical significance of a potential face-to-face meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents since the war's commencement.