'Worse than war with Israel': Why Iran's regime is on edge

Key Concepts

Water Crisis in Iran: Severe drought leading to critical water shortages, particularly in Tehran.
Mismanagement and Climate Change: Interplay of poor water management practices and the effects of climate change as drivers of the crisis.
Political and Social Implications: The potential for water scarcity to exacerbate public frustration and challenge the legitimacy of the Iranian regime.
Historical Context: Parallels drawn between ancient Persian prayers for protection from drought and the current situation.
Economic Pressures: The impact of sanctions and the need for economic diversification on water resource management.
National Security: Water as a critical resource for stability, food security, and public health.
Adaptation and Mitigation: The need for long-term strategies beyond emergency responses.

Tehran's Deepening Water Crisis

Iran is currently experiencing its worst drought in decades, with the capital city, Tehran, facing an unprecedented water shortage. President Hassan Rouhani has warned of the potential evacuation of Tehran, a city of 10 million people (16 million in the wider metropolitan area), if rains do not arrive soon. This situation is not merely a contemporary issue; historical records, such as a prayer found in Persepolis, the ancient capital, dating back to Darius the Great, reveal a long-standing concern for protection from drought.

Current State of the Crisis

Critical Dam Levels: The Karaj Dam, a primary water source for Tehran, was reported to have only 10 days of water left as of last week. Its alternative, the Talieh Dam, located 144 kilometers north, is already dry.
Water Rationing: In several Tehran neighborhoods, water has been switched off for several hours at night without official announcement, a practice that has been ongoing for years in other Iranian cities but is now impacting the capital.
Widespread Impact: The water crisis is not confined to Tehran. Cities like Isfahan, Mashhad, and provinces like Khuzestan and Sistan and Baluchestan have been facing water shortages for years. Mashhad, in the northeast, has received only 0.44 mm of rainfall this year, a stark contrast to 28 mm last year.
Lack of Official Plan: Beyond urging citizens to conserve water and hoping for rain, the Islamic Republic appears to have no concrete plan to address the crisis.

Historical Context and Ancient Concerns

The ancient Persian capital of Persepolis, founded by Darius the Great, bears a prayer on its walls: "May God protect this country from the enemy, from drought, and from lies." This highlights the historical significance of drought as a threat to Iran. In a symbolic twist, activists have warned that excessive illegal drilling into the aquifer beneath Persepolis for water could lead to the collapse of the ancient city itself.

Causes of the Water Crisis: Mismanagement and Climate Change

The current water crisis in Iran is attributed to a complex interplay of factors, with both climate change and years of mismanagement playing significant roles.

Intertwined Drivers

Climate Change: While acknowledging the current year's poor rainfall, experts emphasize that this is the sixth year of drought, and projections have indicated more intense, frequent, and longer droughts.
Mismanagement and Poor Development:
- Over-reliance on Agriculture: Iran allocates over 90% of its water to agriculture, driven by a historical paranoia about food insecurity and self-sufficiency, exacerbated by past conflicts and current global trade uncertainties. This sector also provides employment for the rural poor, making it politically difficult to cut water allocation.
- Urban Growth: Tehran's capacity to handle its large population has been questioned for years, with past administrations considering moving the capital.
- Infrastructure Issues: Old water infrastructure in Tehran contributes to significant leakages.
- Ignoring Warnings: Scientists and environmentalists have warned about these issues for years, but their concerns were often dismissed or met with severe repercussions.

"Water Bankruptcy" and Irreversible Damages

Dr. Kaveh Madani, former Deputy Head of Iran's Environment Department and Director of the UN University's Institute for Water, Environment, and Health, describes Iran as "water bankrupt." He explains that the "checking account" (surface water) is empty, rivers are dry, and the "savings account" (groundwater) is also depleted. This exhaustion of resources has led to irreversible damages, including shrinking lakes and wetlands, drying rivers, ecosystem degradation, desertification, increased sand and dust storms, wildfires, declining groundwater levels, sinkholes, and land subsidence.

Political and Social Ramifications

The water crisis has significant political and social implications for the Iranian regime.

Public Frustration and Regime Legitimacy

Protests: Water shortages have historically sparked protests in provinces, but the current crisis hitting the capital, Tehran, for the first time, is particularly concerning for the regime.
Erosion of Trust: The government's inability to provide a basic necessity like water, coupled with past warnings being ignored, erodes public trust. Citizens are frustrated by the current situation and question why their warnings were dismissed, especially when a large portion of water is allocated to agriculture.
National Security Threat: Water scarcity is considered a national security issue, impacting food production, health, and overall stability.

The Regime's Response and Internal Dynamics

Suppression of Dissent: Environmentalists and scientists who raised alarms about water shortages in the past faced severe criticism, accusations of espionage (MI6, Mossad, CIA), arrests, and smear campaigns. Dr. Madani himself was accused of being an infiltrator.
Complex Governance: The Islamic Republic is described as a complex, non-consolidated entity with competing branches, making it difficult to model its behavior or predict its actions. This complexity, however, might also contribute to its longevity.
"Homemade Problem": Dr. Madani insists that the water crisis is a "homemade problem" that must be addressed by Iranians themselves, requiring a fundamental change in decision-making.

Potential Solutions and Future Outlook

Addressing Iran's water crisis requires a multi-faceted approach, acknowledging the severity of the situation and implementing long-term strategies.

Beyond Emergency Measures

No Magic Solutions: Dr. Madani advises against relying on "magic" and emphasizes the need for scientific solutions.
Evacuation is Unfeasible: The evacuation of a city as large as Tehran is deemed a "joke" and practically impossible.
Limited Short-Term Options:
- Prolonging Weekends: This has been tried during periods of high air pollution or energy shortages and might offer temporary relief by encouraging people to leave the city, provided other cities can accommodate them. However, it's not a sustainable solution for a crisis of this magnitude.
- Reducing Consumption: This remains the primary immediate recourse, alongside hoping for rain.
Long-Term Strategies:
- Economic Diversification: Reducing the economy's reliance on water-intensive agriculture by shifting labor to other sectors is crucial. This is challenging for Iran, which is in a "resistance mode" due to sanctions.
- Relocation of Capital/Population: While the idea of moving the capital to the south coast has been discussed, it presents its own challenges, including infrastructure development, economic opportunities, and security concerns (risk of invasion). The focus should be on creating economic opportunities in other regions to decentralize population.
- Infrastructure Repair: Addressing leakages in water distribution networks is essential but a long-term endeavor.
- Transparency and Trust: Governments need to earn trust by increasing transparency, clearly communicating water availability, and acknowledging people's concerns, especially regarding agricultural water usage.

The Question of Regime Collapse

While the drought intensifies existing pressures on the Islamic Republic, it is unlikely to be the sole cause of regime collapse. Dr. Madani argues that while triggers like drought can amplify anger and distrust, especially when combined with lies and economic hardship, regime collapse is a result of a confluence of problems. He draws parallels to the Syrian civil war and the rise of ISIS, where drought was a catalyst but not the sole cause. Societies facing survival battles may prioritize immediate needs over broader concerns like environmental issues.

External Factors and Nature's Impact

The current situation is compounded by external factors, including the potential re-election of President Trump and the reimposition of sanctions, as well as Israeli actions. However, the drought's impact is described as something even President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu "couldn't wish for," suggesting that nature's actions are proving to be a more profound challenge than military or political pressures.

Conclusion

Iran's water crisis is a severe and multifaceted problem, stemming from a combination of climate change and decades of mismanagement. The immediate threat to Tehran's water supply highlights the urgency of the situation. While the crisis poses significant challenges to the legitimacy and stability of the Iranian regime, it is unlikely to lead to its collapse on its own. Addressing this crisis requires a fundamental shift in policy, a commitment to scientific solutions, economic diversification, and a greater degree of transparency and public engagement from the Iranian government. The historical parallels and the current dire circumstances underscore the critical importance of water as a resource for national security and societal well-being.