Worries that Venezuela crisis could shift US focus away from Ukraine amid key talks • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire Sticking Points: Territorial control (Donbass region), security guarantees (duration & NATO-style agreements), ceasefire monitoring, multinational European force deployment.
• Venezuela’s Impact: Diversion of US attention and funding from Ukraine, potential erosion of international law norms, implications for regional spheres of influence.
• Security Guarantees: Long-term assurances mirroring NATO agreements, differing proposals for duration (15 years vs. decades).
• Regional Spheres of Influence: The US National Security Strategy concept and its potential implications for Russia and China.
• International Law & Precedence: Concerns that US actions in Venezuela may embolden Russia and China to disregard international norms.

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Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Negotiations: Obstacles and Considerations

The discussion centers on the ongoing efforts to achieve a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, highlighting the significant obstacles remaining despite reports of a deal being “90% ready.” A primary sticking point is territory, with Russia seeking full control of the Donbass region while Ukraine insists that ceding further land risks future Russian aggression. Ukraine’s position is that any peace deal must effectively deter Russia from renewed invasion, stating they “will not sign a peace deal that fails to deter ultimately Russia from invading again.”

Security guarantees are another major point of contention. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is requesting long-term guarantees comparable to the mutual cooperation agreements within NATO, specifically “extended security assurances.” The US has reportedly proposed 15 years of security, but Ukraine seeks guarantees spanning decades to address the concern of future Russian incursions following a potential halt to the current, nearly four-year-long invasion. Further complicating matters is the question of ceasefire monitoring and the provision of support to Ukrainian troops post-invasion, including the potential deployment of a multinational European force – a proposition Zelenskyy has emphasized as crucial, stating that without troop commitments, “we’re far from that if people don’t want to kind of give us troops to help us.”

The Venezuela Factor: Shifting Priorities and International Implications

The conversation then shifts to the potential impact of the unfolding situation in Venezuela on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. It is argued that the events in Venezuela are likely to have a more immediate and significant impact on Ukraine than on Latin America. The ousting of Nicholas Maduro has diverted key attention away from Ukraine, and more critically, potentially US funding.

Specifically, the US has provided $130 million to Ukraine since January 2022. There is concern that this funding may be redirected towards Venezuela, diminishing the support available to Ukraine at a critical juncture. Beyond budgetary concerns, the actions in Venezuela raise broader questions about the integrity of international law.

Donald Trump’s characterization of Venezuela as a “narco terrorist state” and justification for intervention is paralleled with Russia’s previous claims of oppression of Russian speakers in Ukraine in 2014. This raises the concern that the US intervention in Venezuela could signal to Russia – and potentially China regarding Taiwan – that overstepping international law is permissible. As Michelle Ferguson Buyahi stated, “Does that send a message to Russia that it's okay to ultimately you know continue to go further in its invasion of Ukraine?”

Regional Spheres of Influence and the Erosion of Norms

The discussion connects the Venezuela situation to the US National Security Strategy outlined in December 2025, which emphasizes concentrating power within regional spheres of influence. While Venezuela falls within the US sphere, the actions raise the question of whether this implies a larger “backyard” for Russia in Europe or China in Asia.

Some analysts have described the situation as leading to “anarchy” in international law, as established parameters are being disregarded. The potential for a redefinition of regional spheres of influence and the flouting of international norms are seen as significant consequences of the US intervention in Venezuela, with potentially far-reaching implications for global stability and the Ukraine conflict.

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