Will Zelensky stay? What will happen in Crimea? Your Ukraine peace talk questions | BBC News

Key Concepts

• Leaked US Plan: A 28-point draft proposal for ending the war in Ukraine, reportedly involving territorial concessions, sanctions relief for Russia, and limitations on Ukraine's military size.
• Territorial Concessions: The controversial aspect of the leaked plan, suggesting Ukraine might have to cede currently held territories to Russia.
• Rare Earth Minerals: Ukraine's potential to supply critical minerals like lithium and titanium to Western economies, reducing reliance on China.
• Security Guarantees: The ongoing discussion and uncertainty surrounding future security assurances for Ukraine from the US and other Western powers.
• Crimea: The Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, currently experiencing Ukrainian military strikes on Russian infrastructure.
• European Resolve: Questions about Europe's willingness to take decisive action beyond rhetorical support to end the war on Ukraine's terms.
• Corruption Scandals in Ukraine: Recent investigations into corruption, impacting public support for President Zelenskyy.
• Russian Propaganda: Putin's use of Ukraine's corruption issues to his advantage in negotiations.
• Negotiation Stalemate: The ongoing difficulty in finding common ground between Ukraine and Russia's "red lines" in peace talks.

Summary

This BBC News Live program, "Your Voice," hosted by Katherine Barahunga, focuses on the efforts to end the war in Ukraine, particularly in light of a leaked 28-point US plan. The plan reportedly includes controversial proposals such as Ukraine ceding territory, lifting sanctions on Moscow, and limiting its military. American delegations are expected in both Kyiv and Moscow for continued negotiations, while the conflict persists on the ground, with Ukrainian troops defending key eastern cities and strikes continuing across Ukraine.

The program features insights from BBC Ukraine correspondent James Waterhouse (in Kyiv), Janna Pesbatuk from BBC Ukrainian (in Ukraine), Sergi Gorashko from BBC Russian (in London), and Orisia Lutzovvich, Head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House (in London).

Territorial Concessions and Their Implications

Main Topic: The implications of the leaked US plan, specifically the proposal for Ukraine to hand over territories it currently holds to Russia.

Key Points:

• Russian Interests: Russia occupies territory in five Ukrainian regions and seeks complete control over them.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukraine resists being forced to surrender land it currently controls.
• Frontline Division: A fortified front line separates Ukrainian-controlled and Russian-occupied territories within these regions.
• Challenges for Civilians: Leaving Russian-occupied territories has become increasingly difficult and dangerous, involving travel through Russia. Many who remain have either chosen to do so or are unable to leave, enduring dangerous conditions.
• Societal Division: The conflict has created societal divisions, with many in cities like Kyiv separated from elderly relatives in occupied areas, facing restricted internet and phone access.
• Ukrainian Government's Stance: Janna Pesbatuk highlights that this "territorial swoop" is a highly sensitive issue. If it becomes part of a peace deal, Ukraine would not regain any territories. Russia would have to cease fighting, but Ukraine might have to cede eastern territories currently held by its forces.
• Trauma for Residents: For those living in these territories, the prospect of losing their homes or becoming Russian citizens (as Russia might regard them) is a significant trauma. This status would not be recognized by Ukraine or the international community.
• Devastated Territories: Some territories Russia seeks are devastated by war and unsuitable for habitation.

Rare Earth Minerals and Economic Engagement

Main Topic: The fate of rare earth metals agreements and their significance for Ukraine.

Key Points:

• Transactional Approach: Ukraine recognized early on that President Trump's administration was transactional and sought to make Ukraine an attractive asset for US business.
• Ukraine's Mineral Wealth: Ukraine is rich in minerals, including lithium and titanium.
• Strategic Importance: The West needs independent supply chains for critical minerals, not reliant on autocratic states like China.
• Ukraine Investment Reconstruction Fund: This fund has been legalized, with the US Development Finance Corporation contributing $75 million, matched by Ukraine's $75 million, creating a $150 million fund for joint projects.
• Progress: Bylaws for the fund have been approved, and visits to lithium excavation sites near Kirovohrad have occurred, with potential investment from US company Techmat.
• Demonstrating Value: Having at least one successful investment case is crucial to demonstrate Ukraine's economic value.

Security Guarantees and Future Commitments

Main Topic: The reliability of future security guarantees for Ukraine, given past perceived violations.

Key Points:

• Uncertainty: James Waterhouse states that there is little clarity on the nature of security guarantees being negotiated.
• Leaked Plan Clause: The leaked 28-point plan mentioned a "coordinated military response" if Russia invaded Ukraine again after the war.
• Western Willingness: It is difficult to gauge Western willingness for direct confrontation with Russia due to existing disagreements.
• US Expectation: The US expects Europe to fill the security gap for Ukraine's future.
• European Reliance: Europe appears to still rely on US military might.
• Difficulty in Visualization: Making promises beyond the war's end is hard to visualize.
• Crucial for Lasting Peace: These security guarantees are essential for any peace agreement to endure.
• Lack of Specifics: There is no clear proposal regarding troops on the ground, weapons provision, or "NATO-esque" security guarantees, especially since Ukraine is not a NATO member.
• Russian Demands: Russia insists on no Western troops in Ukraine after the war.
• Sticky Point: This remains a critical sticking point in peace negotiations, with a lasting peace in Ukraine still feeling distant.

Situation in Crimea

Main Topic: The current situation in Crimea and public sentiment there.

Key Points:

• Ukrainian Territory Occupied by Russia: Crimea is Ukrainian territory illegally occupied by Russia in 2014.
• Ukrainian Strikes: Since 2022, Russian military infrastructure in Crimea has been targeted by the Ukrainian army, with weekly reports of drone and missile strikes.
• Impact on Russian Military: The situation is dire for the Russian military in Crimea, with significant damage and loss of infrastructure reported. Russia has moved its Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol.
• Public Sentiment Unclear: It is difficult to ascertain public sentiment due to over a decade of Russian occupation. Dissenters have been exiled, arrested, or silenced.
• Fear of Speaking Out: People are afraid to express opposition to the occupation and invasion.
• Isolation of Crimea: Russia has isolated the peninsula, making it difficult for journalists to maintain contact with people there.
• Demographic Changes: Many Russian citizens have moved to Crimea since its annexation. Hundreds of thousands with pro-Ukrainian views had to flee.
• Crimean Tatars: Around 50,000 Crimean Tatars, the indigenous population, have been forced to move due to their inability to remain after the annexation.
• Ukrainian Government's Stance: The Ukrainian government and society lack a clear answer on how and when Crimea will be regained.

European Resolve and Decisive Action

Main Topic: Europe's readiness for decisive action to end the war on Ukraine's terms versus continued expressions of concern.

Key Points:

• Ukrainian Frustration: Questions reflect Ukrainian sentiment and anger towards European partners for perceived hesitation.
• Rhetoric vs. Action: While statements of support ("stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes") are common, the backing of these words with action is questioned.
• Crunch Time for Europe: Europe likely understands that the US will not end the war on terms that strengthen European security, necessitating European action.
• Three Pillars for Europe:
  1. Aligned Strategy: A clear understanding that Putin must not win and his gains must not be consolidated, as this would embolden further aggression.
  2. Resources:
     • Military: Long-range missiles for Ukraine, with the UK, France, and Germany having potential to contribute. Air defense for Ukrainian cities.
     • Armaments Production: Continued production of necessary armaments.
     • Economic Support: Keeping Ukraine's economy afloat.
  3. Choking Russia's Resources:
     • Sanctions Enforcement: Strict enforcement of US sanctions on Russian state oil companies.
     • Shadow Fleet Disruption: Policing of the shadow fleet, particularly in the Baltic Sea, by Nordic and Baltic countries.
• Russian Sovereign Assets: The discussion around repurposing $300 billion in frozen Russian assets for Ukraine is urgent, especially with the collapse of US direct assistance.
• European Financial Support: Europe has only provided approximately €2.2 billion for weapons previously supplied by the US, a significant decrease.
• European Council Discussion: Ukraine's reparation loan will be discussed at the European Council in December, a matter of "life and death."
• NATO's Role: NATO is a defensive block, and a "coalition of the willing" is emerging from member states. Discussions should focus on joint military and defense production with Ukraine to push back the front line.

Corruption Scandals and Zelenskyy's Reputation

Main Topic: The impact of recent corruption scandals in Ukraine on President Zelenskyy's reputation and chances of re-election.

Key Points:

• Raids on Top Aide's Home: Anti-corruption authorities searched the residence of Andriy Yermak, Head of the Presidential Office and a close ally of President Zelenskyy.
• Impact on Public Support: This large-scale corruption scandal, involving a major state-run energy company, is likely to affect public support for Zelenskyy.
• Historical Political Moment: The existence of functional anti-corruption authorities capable of investigating even high-ranking officials is seen as a significant achievement, even amidst war.
• No Immunity: No high-ranking official in Ukraine is immune from such investigations.
• Russian Propaganda: Vladimir Putin has mocked the situation, using it to his advantage to pressure Zelenskyy into signing an unfavorable agreement. Putin claims corruption is foundational to the Russian regime, despite its own significant corruption problems.
• Kremlin's Advantage: Internal political scandals in Ukraine benefit the Kremlin and Putin, as they weaken Zelenskyy's position.

Upcoming Negotiations

Main Topic: Expectations for the coming days regarding peace negotiations.

Key Points:

• US Delegation Visit: A US delegation, including Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, is expected to return to Kyiv.
• US Envoy to Moscow: Senior US envoy Steve Wickoff is expected to go to Moscow to meet with senior Russian officials.
• Verbal Agreement: Both Ukraine and Russia verbally appear to be engaging in the process.
• No Final Agreement: Vladimir Putin stated that no final agreement has been reached.
• Divergent Red Lines: It remains unclear where Ukraine and Russia's "red lines" converge, indicating a significant challenge in reaching a resolution.

Conclusion

The program highlights the complex and precarious situation surrounding the war in Ukraine. A leaked US plan has brought controversial proposals to the forefront, including territorial concessions, which deeply concern Ukraine and its citizens. While efforts for negotiation continue, with US delegations expected in both Kyiv and Moscow, the conflict persists. Ukraine's economic potential, particularly in rare earth minerals, is being explored as a way to strengthen its ties with the West and attract investment. However, significant questions remain about the reliability of future security guarantees for Ukraine, given past perceived violations and the current geopolitical landscape. The situation in Crimea is marked by ongoing Ukrainian military actions against Russian infrastructure, while public sentiment remains largely unknown due to Russian control. Europe faces pressure to move beyond rhetoric and take decisive action, backed by resources and a unified strategy, to support Ukraine and counter Russian aggression. Internally, Ukraine is grappling with corruption scandals that, while highlighting the functionality of its anti-corruption bodies, also present challenges to President Zelenskyy's reputation and are exploited by Russian propaganda. The path to a lasting peace remains distant, with significant obstacles and divergent "red lines" between Ukraine and Russia.