Will Vietnam Deepen Ties With China Because Of Trump Tariffs? | China & The Global South

Key Concepts:

• Bamboo Diplomacy: Vietnam's foreign policy approach characterized by firmness in protecting national interests and flexibility in pursuing them.
• South China Sea Disputes: Territorial and maritime disputes between Vietnam and China over islands, reefs, and maritime jurisdictions.
• Multilateralization and Diversification: Vietnam's policy of engaging with multiple countries to avoid over-reliance on any single power.
• Economic Cooperation vs. Strategic Competition: The balancing act Vietnam performs between economic partnership with China and strategic competition, particularly in the South China Sea.
• Tariffs and Trade Relations: The impact of US tariffs on Vietnam and the potential for closer ties between Vietnam and China.

1. Vietnam's Bamboo Diplomacy and Foreign Policy

• Vietnam's bamboo diplomacy is a key reason for its economic success, attracting investments from the US, Japan, and China.
• The bamboo metaphor represents Vietnam's foreign policy: strong roots (firm in protecting national interests) and flexible branches (flexible ways in pursuing national interests).
• Vietnam has a history of conflict with China, but after establishing peace, it reached out to settle differences.
• Vietnam's economy has grown at an average of 7% annually in the last 6 years, outpacing regional peers.

2. Vietnam-China Relations: Cooperation and Contention

• China and Vietnam share a long land border, making manufacturing relocation logical.
• There are common interests in economic and political cooperation, but differences exist in strategic objectives, especially in the South China Sea.
• Vietnam prioritizes economic development and tries to compartmentalize disputes in the South China Sea from the overall relationship with China.
• Despite disputes, China has been an important investor for Vietnam, with cumulative FDI of $61.3 billion over the last decade, making it the fourth largest foreign investor.
• China and Vietnam signed a land border treaty, resolving land territorial disputes.

3. Vietnam's Balancing Act: US, China, and Russia

• Vietnam has pursued a policy of multilateralizing and diversifying its foreign policies since the late 1980s.
• Vietnam was the unanimous choice of the Asia-Pacific block in the UN as its candidate to be a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council twice.
• Vietnam aims to be an "honest broker" in international affairs, avoiding alliances and playing a positive role in multilateral institutions.
• Vietnam held friendly high-level meetings with leaders of America, Russia, and China within 12 months.

4. Challenges Under the Trump Administration

• International relations have become more challenging under President Trump.
• Vietnam is scrambling to buy more US goods, including security and defense products, to bargain for postponement of 46% US tariffs.
• The United States is Vietnam's largest export market, with a value of 142 billion or nearly 30% of its GDP.
• President Trump's 46% tariffs on Vietnamese products made Vietnam one of the countries worst hit by the proposed levies.
• "If Trump wants to pull the tablecloth off the table, the Vietnamese cutlery get broken." This highlights the vulnerability of Vietnam's position.

5. China's Response and Deepening Ties

• Following President Trump's tariff announcement, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Hanoi.
• President Xi called on Vietnam to jointly oppose unilateral bullying and uphold the stability of the global free trade system.
• China and Vietnam signed 45 cooperation agreements across areas like infrastructure, AI, trade, clean energy, and the digital economy.
• There is a shared understanding of common challenges for continued development and the need for reform and opening to the outside world.
• Trump stated that China's talks with Vietnam intended to "screw the United States."

6. Infrastructure and Connectivity

• Hanoi's first metro system was built by the Chinese, while the metro in Ho Chi Minh City was built by the Japanese, showcasing diversification of foreign partners.
• Line 2A in Hanoi, built with Chinese funding, cost $868 million and covers 13 kilometers.
• The Ho Chi Minh City metro line, funded largely by Japanese government loans, cost $1.7 billion and runs almost 20 km.
• Work will soon begin on a rail link connecting Hanoi to Kunming, China.
• Vietnam approved plans for an $8 billion rail link from the port city of Hyong to Hanoi and onwards to China's Yunnan province.
• Connecting the port of Hyong with Lao Kai on the China border will connect to southern China goods and can move both directions.

7. South China Sea Tensions and Maritime Exercises

• The Vietnam Coast Guard joined the Philippine Coast Guard in bilateral maritime exercises in the disputed South China Sea.
• China and Vietnam agreed to boost exchanges between their two militaries at all levels.
• The Vietnamese government accused Chinese law enforcement personnel of assaulting Vietnamese fishermen at sea.
• Chinese law enforcement allegedly boarded boats near the Paracel Islands, hit fishermen, and confiscated equipment.
• Friendly exchanges between leaders are often followed by flare-ups in the South China Sea.
• Major incidents in the past include the standoff over an oil rig in 2014 and anti-China riots.

8. Economic Ties and Future Outlook

• China and Vietnam have been deepening their trade ties.
• Maintaining a balance between major powers is a cornerstone of Vietnam's foreign policy.
• Tariffs will constrain Vietnam's US relations and may hamper potential cooperation.
• Vietnam wants to avoid reliance on China, even in economic domains.
• "The mistrust of China is still there, so it will not disappear overnight just because of problems Mr. Trump is creating for Vietnam."

Synthesis/Conclusion:

Vietnam's "bamboo diplomacy" has been instrumental in its economic growth and its ability to navigate complex international relations. The country faces the challenge of balancing its economic partnership with China against its strategic concerns in the South China Sea and the impact of US trade policies. While Vietnam seeks to maintain equidistance between major powers, external pressures and historical mistrust create a delicate balancing act. The development of infrastructure projects with both Chinese and Japanese involvement exemplifies Vietnam's strategy of diversification and its commitment to its own economic development.