Will Trump target Russia despite European oil purchases? | BBC Ukrainecast

Key Concepts:

• Soft power diplomacy
• Sanctions (primary and secondary)
• EU unanimity rule
• Russian oil and gas dependence
• Alternative energy sources
• Senate action vs. Presidential control
• UN General Assembly
• Drone warfare (Shahed/Geran type)
• Geopolitical strategy (India, China)

1. Donald Trump's UK State Visit and Soft Power

• Prime Minister Starmmer and King Charles III used charm to influence President Trump on his second state visit.
• The UK aims to leverage "soft power" to gain influence over US policy, particularly regarding Ukraine.
• While flattery and pomp have limitations, they can earn "political capital" and "diplomatic brownie points."
• Trump was "genuinely engaged" and "enjoying himself," suggesting the UK earned some leverage.
• The goal is to "bend his ear" and get a hearing on issues like tariff reduction and security, including Ukraine.
• Flattery gets you in the door, but doesn't guarantee winning the argument.
• A feeling of "bonomy and beneficence" might make Trump less "capricious" in decision-making.

2. US Sanctions on Russia and European Dependence on Russian Oil

• Trump's current position: new US sanctions on Russia hinge on Europe stopping buying Russian oil.
• Zelensky insists the US should impose sanctions independently, regardless of European action.
• A third of Russian state revenue comes from oil and gas.
• The US and UK banned Russian oil and gas after the full-scale invasion.
• The EU only banned Russian seaborn oil imports, allowing piped oil and gas imports to continue.
• Hungary and Slovakia are the primary EU buyers of Russian oil, with their dependence increasing.
• Slovakia buys almost all its oil from Russia, and Russia's share of Hungarian oil imports rose from 61% to over 80%.
• Over half of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) imports go to the EU.
• Hungary and Slovakia have paid close to $6 billion in tax revenues for crude oil alone to Moscow since the invasion.

3. EU Sanctions and Alternative Energy Sources

• EU sanctions require unanimity, making it difficult to sanction member states like Hungary and Slovakia.
• One member state often leverages the renewal of Russia sanctions to gain concessions from Brussels.
• Economic sanctions on Hungary and Slovakia are unlikely due to the EU's legal framework and the need for unanimity.
• There are ways to impose costs on individual member states within the EU system, but it's a slow and contentious process.
• Alternative energy sources exist: Croatia has offered its Adrea pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia.
• Hungary and Slovakia could potentially use LNG delivered to terminals in Germany, Poland, Italy, or Greece.

4. Trump's Stance on Sanctions and Geopolitical Considerations

• Trump is on a slow, stop-start journey towards getting more frustrated with Russia.
• He is nervous about demanding that countries like India and China stop buying cheap Russian fuel (secondary sanctions).
• The US and UK are wary of secondary sanctions due to potential economic and geopolitical consequences.
• Imposing tariffs on India could push it towards China.
• Substantial secondary sanctions on India and China could affect world trade and cause inflation, undermining US economic gains.

5. Senate Action on Ukraine and European Influence

• The Senate can theoretically take action on its own, but Trump's control over the Republican party limits its ability to act independently.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thun has made it clear that any legislation would need Trump's explicit approval.
• Some senators are expressing frustration with the lack of action and Putin "making a laughing stock of us."
• The influence of Congress might grow closer to the midterms.
• European leaders like Macron and Mets have a voice, as the US recognizes that a political settlement in Ukraine requires European buy-in.
• The US doesn't want to be solely responsible for Ukraine in the long term.
• Trump's decision-making is influenced by various factors, including the last person he spoke to, television, and whether he feels disrespected.

6. Belarus and Potential Ukrainian Action

• Attacking Belarus would make it more difficult for Zelensky to occupy the moral high ground.
• Lucashanka is in power because of Putin, who would likely try to ensure he stays in power.
• A Ukrainian attack on Belarus would likely have limited impact.
• Belarus's army is less experienced and equipped than the Russian or Ukrainian armies.
• Russia already has troops in Belarus and has used its territory to launch attacks on Ukraine.
• The goal of attacking the Kursk region was to distract Russian forces from places like the Donetskar region.

7. Drone Warfare and the Incident in Poland

• Drones that have been hitting Ukraine recently are not all controlled remotely.
• The drones that ended up in Poland seem to be of the Gerbera/Shahed type, which are individually controlled.
• Losing 19 such drones is considered unlikely, suggesting a deliberate intervention or attack.
• Drones can fly in flocks or be deployed from mother ship drones.
• They can be controlled using airwaves, fiber optic cables, or local mobile networks.
• Relay drones can extend their range.
• Thousands of operators may be involved in controlling drones on the front line.

8. UN General Assembly and Ukraine's Agenda

• The UN General Assembly in New York will likely be dominated initially by the issue of Gaza.
• Some European countries, the UK, France, Australia, and others are expected to formally recognize Palestinian status.
• The most important interactions happen on the sidelines, through meetings and "bending ears."
• Speeches are used to deliver messages, but the real significance lies in the informal discussions.
• Zelensky is expected to meet with Trump on the sidelines.

9. Conclusion

The week's events highlight the complex interplay of diplomacy, economic interests, and geopolitical strategy surrounding the Ukraine conflict. While soft power efforts aim to influence key players like Trump, the EU's internal divisions and the US's concerns about secondary sanctions create obstacles to a unified and decisive response. The UN General Assembly offers an opportunity for further engagement and potential breakthroughs, but the focus on other pressing issues like Gaza could overshadow Ukraine's needs.