Key Concepts
- Palestinian Self-Determination: The right of the Palestinian people to govern themselves and determine their own political status.
- Israeli Occupation: The military control and administration of Palestinian territories by Israel.
- Ceasefire in Gaza: An agreement to halt hostilities between Israel and Hamas.
- Hostage Exchange: The return of individuals held captive by one party to the other.
- Gaza Blockade: Restrictions on the movement of goods and people into and out of the Gaza Strip.
- Famine and Genocide Declarations: United Nations declarations regarding the severe food shortages and alleged systematic killing of a group.
- US Military Aid to Israel: The provision of weapons and munitions from the United States to Israel.
- Benjamin Netanyahu's Political Situation: The Israeli Prime Minister's legal troubles and reliance on war to maintain power.
- Donald Trump's Role in Middle East Peace: Trump's involvement in brokering a potential peace deal and his public statements.
- Hamas Disarmament: The process of Hamas relinquishing its weapons.
- Israeli-Backed Gangs in Gaza: Armed groups in Gaza that received support from Israel, intended as alternatives to Hamas.
- Post-Hamas Governance of Gaza: The question of who will govern Gaza after Hamas.
- Palestinian Statelessness: The lack of an independent Palestinian state.
- Israeli Settlements: Israeli communities built on Palestinian land in the West Bank.
- Proxy War: A conflict where opposing sides use third parties as surrogates instead of fighting directly.
- US-China Rivalry: The geopolitical and economic competition between the United States and China.
- Green Revolution and EVs: The shift towards renewable energy and electric vehicles.
- Rare Earth Minerals: Essential components for green technologies, with China holding a dominant position in their extraction and refining.
- Global Heating and Climate Breakdown: The impact of climate change on human populations and migration.
Summary
This transcript features a discussion with Professor Juan Cole, a historian and editor-in-chief of "Informed Comment," regarding the situation in the Middle East, particularly concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and broader geopolitical and economic trends.
The Gaza Ceasefire and its Fragility
The conversation begins by addressing a recently brokered ceasefire in Gaza, which included an exchange of bodies of hostages. Professor Cole provides a grim recap of the situation in Gaza over the past two years, highlighting intensive Israeli bombardment, the destruction of over 80% of buildings, damage to infrastructure, and a blockade on food and medical aid. He notes that the United Nations declared a famine and the situation has been widely viewed as genocide. Cole argues that the United States, through its deep dependence on Israel for munitions, has been a "silent partner" and could have stopped the conflict at any moment.
The role of former President Donald Trump in pushing for an end to the conflict is discussed. Trump is quoted as expressing dissatisfaction with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's perceived foot-dragging on a peace deal, allegedly telling Netanyahu, "I don't know why you're negative. This is a peace deal is a win for you. Take it."
Trump's Statements and the Reality of Hamas
Professor Cole analyzes Trump's public statements regarding Hamas's disarmament. Trump asserted that Hamas would disarm, and if not, the US would disarm them, stating, "They know I'm not playing games." He also mentioned getting hostages back and that Hamas had "misrepresented" the number of dead hostages. Trump also referred to taking out "very bad gangs" that were not Hamas, which he stated "didn't bother me much."
Cole clarifies that Hamas has not agreed to disarm; rather, they have agreed not to be the government of Gaza going forward. He points out that as Israeli troops withdrew from parts of Gaza, conflicts arose with gangs preying on people. Crucially, Cole reveals that these gangs were "Israeli backed" and seen by Israelis as alternatives to Hamas. He states this has been widely reported and questions why Trump would approve of Hamas destroying these Israeli-backed gangs, as it contradicts the Israeli cabinet's stance. Cole emphasizes that the US does not have troops in Gaza and is not in a position to disarm anyone there, drawing a parallel to the chaos that ensued in Iraq after the collapse of its government, despite a large US troop presence.
The Future Governance of Gaza
A significant point of discussion is the question of who will succeed Hamas in governing the Gaza Strip. Cole states that this new authority would be crucial for providing security and facilitating disarmament. Potential candidates mentioned include former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and an Arab force, with Turkey volunteering. However, these discussions are described as "wide-ranging and without specific issue."
The Core Issue: Palestinian Statelessness and Occupation
Professor Cole argues that the fundamental cause of the conflicts in the Levant is "Palestinian statelessness." He criticizes the Western understanding of the situation, emphasizing that Palestinians live under Israeli military occupation. He draws a parallel to a foreign country running a province in North America, suggesting such a situation would lead to armed resistance. Cole asserts that the conflict will not cease until Palestinians have the dignity of citizenship, access to courts that guarantee their rights, and protection of their property, which he states can be "stolen" by Israelis at any moment.
He acknowledges that 157 countries recognize Palestine as a state but dismisses these recognitions as "pro forma" and "on paper." Cole reiterates that in daily life in the West Bank and Gaza, the Israeli military dictates actions, and Israeli settlers, often with military complicity, attack Palestinian villages. He states there is no Palestinian court for relief against Israeli settler attacks and that the PLO's police in the West Bank are forced to cooperate with the Israeli military. Cole concludes that it is an "occupation regime," comparable to British rule in India, and a colonial situation that the world agrees should end, allowing for Palestinian self-determination. He directly blames the United States for the Palestinians' suffering.
Potential Saboteurs of Peace
The discussion turns to factors that could sabotage any peace deal. Professor Cole identifies three potential spoilers:
- Hamas seeking to retain underground command structures and avoid disarmament.
- The Israeli far-right working to block Palestinian statehood.
- Iran attempting to maintain regional deterrence by rearming proxy forces like Hezbollah.
Cole believes the peace deal is "so open-ended that virtually anything could end it" due to the lack of a practical structure for ongoing peace. He suggests that while Hamas is currently a "tiny shadow," and Hezbollah and Iran are weakened, the primary threat comes from "Benjamin Netanyahu and the extremists on his cabinet," who have a history of returning to war, citing a previous instance in March after a temporary pause. He believes these individuals have the power to spoil any deal and that there is "no sign" the Israeli government desires accommodation with the Palestinians.
Oil Markets and Geopolitical Influence
The conversation shifts to the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on oil prices. Cole estimates a 50/50 chance that the immediate fighting in Gaza has ended, suggesting both sides see no further advantage in continued fighting. He notes that Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, while concerning, are contingent on Israeli actions. A sustained peace would alleviate the need for ships to take longer, more expensive routes around the Cape of Good Hope, benefiting oil markets and shipping.
Cole downplays the direct impact of the Palestine-Israel conflict on oil prices, stating that neither country has oil and they are not near major production centers. He argues that conflicts in the Persian Gulf itself, or US sanctions on Iran, have a more significant effect on oil prices. He also points out that while the US has increased shale production, the Middle East, particularly the Persian Gulf, still accounts for a substantial portion of global oil production (around 22%).
US-China Rivalry and the Future of Oil
The discussion explores the theory of a proxy war between the US and China in the Middle East. Cole acknowledges historical precedents for emerging challenger states rivaling dominant powers but believes China's leadership is not heavily invested in Iran's projects and fears US sanctions. He suggests China has likely advised Iran to "cool it."
The primary challenge China poses to oil markets, according to Cole, is not geopolitical conflict but its "green revolution" and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs). He projects that China's oil demand has peaked due to the widespread adoption of EVs, and this trend, if replicated globally, will exert downward pressure on oil prices. He contrasts this with the US, where he believes Trump's policies hinder EV adoption.
Cole believes China will emerge as the major superpower due to its leadership in green energy technologies like solar panels and EVs. He criticizes Trump's policies for potentially making the US a "much more backward country" by decimating its scientific establishment. He also highlights the unpredictable changes brought by global heating and climate breakdown, suggesting countries like Canada, which welcome immigration and have temperate climates, could become significant players.
The Nature of US-China Relations
Regarding the animosity between China and the US, Cole describes it as a "mixed bag." He acknowledges significant trade volumes and areas of partnership, though he notes Trump's tariffs have impacted certain sectors. He contrasts the current US-China relationship with the Cold War, emphasizing the lack of direct military confrontation and the extensive economic ties between the US and China, which were absent with the Soviet Union.
The conversation touches upon the potential for an "economical Cold War," where critical minerals and materials become weapons. Cole views China's threat to withhold rare earth minerals as a "weapon of the weak" and a bargaining chip, a sign of weakness rather than strength. He believes economic polarization would be detrimental to the US, given the enormous trade volume.
Historical Perspective on Global Change
Looking ahead 50 years, Professor Cole reiterates his belief that China will become the dominant global superpower, driven by its advancements in green energy and EVs. He foresees a potential long-term secular decline in the oil industry if China's EV model becomes dominant globally. He also anticipates significant global changes due to climate breakdown, leading to mass migration and opportunities for countries like Canada.
Cole concludes by stating that while historical precedents suggest emerging superpowers clash with dominant ones, the existence of nuclear weapons and the Soviet Union's eventual decline without direct US-Soviet war offer alternative models. He believes a US-China conflict would more likely manifest as proxy wars in the global south rather than direct military confrontation, though China has so far resisted such provocations, prioritizing resource allocation for economic competition.
Professor Cole invites viewers to follow his blog, "Informed Comment," for further insights.
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