Will the USA overthrow the president of Venezuela? • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Naroterrorism: The US administration's designation of certain gangs as terrorist organizations, justifying military action against them.
• Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns): A disputed Venezuelan criminal organization allegedly led by President Nicolás Maduro, accused of drug trafficking.
• Extrajudicial Assassination: The killing of individuals without legal trial or due process, which UN-mandated experts have accused the US of committing in Venezuela.
• Regime Change: The US policy of attempting to overthrow the current government of Venezuela, led by Nicolás Maduro.
• Economic Sanctions: US measures aimed at crippling Venezuela's economy, particularly its oil industry, to pressure Maduro out of power.
• Covert Operations: Secret CIA activities authorized by the US President within Venezuela.
• Venezuelan Opposition: Political groups and individuals in Venezuela who oppose the Maduro regime, including María Corina Machado.
• Geopolitical Interests: The underlying economic and political motivations behind US actions in Venezuela, including access to oil and influence in the region.

US Military Actions and Justifications

On September 2nd, 2025, the US Army attacked a small boat in the Caribbean, resulting in the deaths of 11 individuals. The US government claimed the victims were drug traffickers. However, this action drew international condemnation, with UN-mandated experts labeling it an "extrajudicial assassination." The transcript highlights that under both international and US law, drug trafficking does not justify killing suspects who should be arrested and tried.

The White House's justification for the attack shifted, with President Donald Trump officially designating several gangs, including the "Cartel de los Soles," as terrorist organizations. This designation, according to the Trump administration, makes these killings permissible as part of the "fight against naroterrorism." The US has claimed responsibility for a total of 10 similar strikes in the Caribbean, deploying over 10,000 US troops, 10 warships, 10 F-35 fighter jets, and one nuclear submarine to the region.

Accusations Against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro

Donald Trump has identified Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as the leader of the "Cartel de los Soles." Maduro came to power in 2013 and has been described as ruling an authoritarian regime, characterized by crackdowns on protests, silencing of opponents, and a fraudulent 2024 election victory. Critics allege that Maduro maintains power through the loyalty of the army and top officials, who are allegedly kept satisfied through corruption and illegal trade, including drug trafficking.

Doubts Regarding US Justifications

The transcript presents arguments questioning the US's stated goal of fighting drug trafficking in Venezuela:

• Disputed Existence of Cartel de los Soles: The very existence of the "Cartel de los Soles" is heavily disputed.
• Cocaine Trafficking Routes: 74% of cocaine entering the US originates from Colombia and Ecuador via the Pacific, not the Caribbean.
• Adaptability of Drug Networks: Traffickers using Venezuela as a route are reportedly shifting operations to neighboring countries like Guyana, Suriname, and northern Brazil, suggesting that if narcotics were the primary concern, more effective strategies would be employed.

This leads to the question of what truly lies behind the US actions.

Historical US Intervention in Venezuela

US attempts to influence Venezuelan politics have a long history. In 2002, Washington was accused of backing a coup against Hugo Chávez, Maduro's predecessor. Declassified documents later confirmed Pentagon support for groups involved in that coup, and the US was the first to recognize the coup leader as president. Chávez regained power after 47 hours.

Trump Administration's Escalation of Hostilities

Tensions resurfaced when Donald Trump came to power in 2017. During his first term, severe economic sanctions were imposed, cutting Venezuela off from international markets and targeting its oil industry. These sanctions led to significant consequences for the Venezuelan population, including hyperinflation, food shortages, and an embargo on basic goods, with 94% of Venezuelans living in poverty by 2019.

In a potential second term, Trump's team intensified efforts. He publicly admitted authorizing CIA covert operations in Venezuela, citing two main reasons: "they have emptied their prisons into the United States of America" and "drugs. We have a lot of drugs coming in from Venezuela." When questioned about the CIA's authority to "take out Maduro," Trump avoided a direct answer, calling it a "ridiculous question."

Preparing for Regime Change and Key Opposition Figures

On September 29th, 2025, the New York Times reported that top Trump advisors were preparing a military escalation to topple Maduro, reportedly led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio met with members of the Venezuelan opposition, notably María Corina Machado.

• María Corina Machado: A prominent figure in Venezuelan politics and a leading opponent of Maduro. She was barred from running in the 2025 election but supported Amado Orduz González, whose victory was recognized by the US. Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts. She was also a critic of Hugo Chávez and her activist group helped lead the 2002 coup attempt. She was present in the presidential palace during the coup leader's swearing-in.
• Rubio's Support for Machado: Marco Rubio is reportedly backing Machado for a regime change effort. A close aide to Machado revealed discussions with Rubio about a detailed plan for the first 100 hours and 100 days after Maduro's fall. Machado is seen as an ideal ally for Trump's team due to her long-standing opposition to Maduro and her support for Trump's hardline foreign policy. She has also dedicated her Nobel Prize to Trump and is an outspoken defender of far-right movements globally.

Underlying Economic and Political Motivations

The transcript suggests several motivations behind US actions:

• Economic Interests: Venezuela possesses the world's largest oil reserves. Installing a US-friendly government could secure access to this oil for American companies, particularly Chevron, a significant campaign donor to Trump.
• Political Considerations: Trump may be seeking to maintain the support of Venezuelan-American voters, a key demographic that backed him in the last election and expects him to end Maduro's regime.
• Ending Russian, Chinese, and Iranian Influence: A proposed deal with Maduro, which Trump abruptly ended on October 6th, would have allowed US companies direct access to Venezuela's oil and gas sectors and redirected exports away from Russia, China, and Iran towards the United States.

Future Outlook and Challenges

Analysts believe a full-scale US invasion of Venezuela is unlikely due to its size and population, making it militarily unfeasible. However, the escalation is expected to continue.

• Short-Term Benefits: Both Trump and Maduro may benefit in the short term. Trump can project an image of strength internationally, while Maduro can use the threat to rally nationalistic support and deflect from his legitimacy crisis.
• US Strategy: Washington is likely to maintain pressure through various means until Maduro falls. Speculation exists that these means could include targeted assassinations.
• Post-Maduro Challenges: Even if Maduro is removed, the US would face the significant challenge of establishing a stable government aligned with its interests.

The situation is described as a power struggle with shifting military posturing, and further developments are anticipated.