Will the presence of Syrian government forces inflame or calm the situation again? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Sectarian tensions in Syria
• Lack of trust in the Syrian government (Damascus)
• Balkanization of Syria
• Israeli intervention in Syria
• Ceasefire in Sueda province
• Role of the Drews community
• Government accountability and inclusion
• Weakness of the Syrian central government
• Al-Assad's leadership and challenges

Giorgio Capido's Analysis:

• Tense Situation: The situation in Syria remains tense, and the fundamental drivers of violence are unresolved.
• Sectarian Killings: There have been "very ugly sectarian killings," and minority communities distrust the "Islamist dominated government in Damascus."
• Distrust of Assad: Minority communities do not believe President Assad's promises of an inclusive Syria.
• Long-Term Conflict: The conflict in southwestern Syria may last for a long time, marking a new chapter in the civil war after Assad's fall.
• Israeli Intervention: Israel is committed to exploiting sectarian and ethnic tensions to balkanize Syria. Tel Aviv will continue intervening to deepen divisions between minority groups and Damascus.
• Path to Peace: Lasting peace requires the government to earn the trust of the Drews and other communities by making good on its rhetoric of governing an inclusive Syria.
• Accountability: Accountability for government-linked fighters who have committed human rights violations is crucial.
• Weak Central Government: Syria's central government is weak, with only roughly 40,000 security forces, limiting its ability to consolidate control.
• Challenging Road Ahead: The road ahead for the Syrian government is very challenging.

Berivan Resol's Report from Syria:

• Fragile Ceasefire: The ceasefire in Sueda province appears fragile, with reports of gunfire and tension despite decreased major confrontations.
• Skepticism Among Drews: Some local Drews groups are observing the ceasefire, but others remain armed and skeptical.
• Lack of Enforcement: The ceasefire lacks a clear mechanism for enforcement or monitoring, making its sustainability uncertain.
• Government Troop Deployment: The interim president Al-Sharai is deploying troops to enforce the ceasefire, which could be a "double-edged sword."
• Provocative Presence: For many in Sueda, the presence of government troops is seen as provocative due to years of mistrust.
• Need for Guarantees: Unless the forces come with guarantees for restraint and dialogue, the deployment risks rejuvenating tensions.
• Rebuilding Trust: Trust will not be rebuilt through statements alone. The Drews community has long felt marginalized.
• Required Actions: Rebuilding trust requires actions, accountability for violence, genuine inclusion in political decision-making, and recognition of local autonomy and community leadership.
• Critical Test for Regime: These events have been a critical early test for the new regime, exposing deep fractures and the limited reach of the central government.
• Judging Leadership: Al-Sharai's leadership is being judged by his ability to navigate a multi-layered crisis.
• Pressure to Unify: The regime is under pressure to show it can unify a fractured society, but recent events have shown how steep that challenge will be.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The situation in Syria, particularly in Sueda province, remains highly volatile due to deep-seated sectarian tensions, a lack of trust in the government, and external interference. A fragile ceasefire is in place, but its sustainability is questionable. Rebuilding trust with marginalized communities like the Drews requires concrete actions, accountability, and genuine inclusion. The Syrian government faces significant challenges in consolidating control and unifying the fractured society, especially given its limited resources and the ongoing external pressures.