Will the Liberals do preference deals with One Nation? | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Preference Deals: Strategic agreements between political parties to direct voter preferences on "how-to-vote" cards.
• One Nation: An Australian right-wing populist political party.
• How-to-vote cards: Recommendations provided by parties to voters on how to rank candidates on their ballot papers.
• Political Realignment: The shift of voter bases between parties, specifically from Labor and Liberal to minor parties like One Nation.
• Party Machinery: The internal organizational structure, membership engagement, and campaign operations of a political party.

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1. Main Topics and Key Points

• Preference Deals with One Nation: Fiona Scott argues that if the political left engages in preference deals, the right should also consider them. She emphasizes that these should not be "blanket" or "wholesale" agreements but rather seat-by-seat decisions based on the specific community and the "moral fiber" of individual candidates.
• The Role of "How-to-Vote" Cards: Scott notes that these cards are merely recommendations. She cites data from a recent federal by-election where only approximately 30% of voters followed the provided instructions, suggesting that the impact of preference deals is often overstated.
• The Rise of One Nation: Scott contends that the rise of One Nation is a long-term trend rather than a recent phenomenon. She highlights that the Labor Party has been "caught napping," losing traditional working-class voters (specifically those with union backgrounds) to One Nation’s nationalist platform.
• Internal Party Dynamics: The discussion touches on Tony Abbott’s role as the new Liberal Party president. Scott defends his "listening tour," framing it as a necessary effort to invigorate party membership and ensure that grassroots voices are heard within the party’s campaign machinery.

2. Important Examples and Real-World Applications

• Lindsay Electorate: Scott uses her experience in the seat of Lindsay to illustrate how One Nation has historically appealed to traditional Labor heartlands, such as South Penrith and Emu Plains.
• Penrith State Election: She cites a specific statistic: One Nation secured 8.8% of the vote in the state seat of Penrith, drawing from a demographic of voters who were historically Labor-aligned but shifted due to nationalist sentiments.
• Bondi Incident: The interview references a recent event in Bondi as a potential "catalyst" for public frustration, which Barnaby Joyce identified as a turning point for voters seeking alternatives to the major parties.

3. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Pragmatism over Ideology: Scott argues that the Liberal Party must look at "everything that is on offer" to remain competitive. She rejects the idea that engaging with One Nation is an "alignment," framing it instead as a strategic necessity.
• Voter Agency: A central argument is that voters ultimately decide their own preferences. Scott minimizes the power of party elites to dictate outcomes, noting that voters are increasingly independent of "how-to-vote" recommendations.
• Labor’s Failure: Scott shifts the focus away from the Liberal Party’s struggles, arguing that the Labor Party has failed to recognize the broader societal resentment that has been building for years.

4. Notable Quotes

• "If it's all right for the left of Parliament and politics to be able to do that, then why is it not okay for the right wing to look at those similar types of deals?" — Fiona Scott, regarding the justification for preference deals.
• "It's not like this is the end of the world. It's more of a recommendation. At the end of the day, voters get to choose how they vote." — Fiona Scott, on the influence of "how-to-vote" cards.
• "The Labor Party has really been caught napping on this thinking and... framing this as a Liberal Party issue when it's actually a lot more broader than that." — Fiona Scott, on the political shift toward One Nation.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The interview highlights a period of significant "soul-searching" for the Liberal Party. Fiona Scott advocates for a pragmatic approach to political alliances, suggesting that the party should be open to seat-specific preference deals with One Nation while maintaining a rigorous screening process for candidates. She emphasizes that the rise of minor parties is a symptom of long-standing public resentment—a trend she believes both major parties have been slow to address. Ultimately, Scott positions the Liberal Party’s current internal efforts, led by Tony Abbott, as a necessary phase of rebuilding and reconnecting with the party’s grassroots membership.