Will Russia be able to avert new US sanctions ahead of tomorrow's deadline? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Potential Trump-Putin meeting to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Trump's deadline for a ceasefire by Friday, with the threat of new sanctions.
• Steve Witkoff's meeting with Putin in Moscow.
• Possible secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil and gas.
• Skepticism surrounding the likelihood of a Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy meeting.

1. Potential Meeting and Deadline:

• The White House indicated that Donald Trump could meet with Vladimir Putin within a week to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. The location of the potential meeting is yet to be announced.
• Trump has set a deadline of Friday for a peace deal, threatening economic sanctions on Russia and its trading partners if progress isn't made.
• Trump expressed optimism about a potential face-to-face meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders.

2. Diplomatic Efforts and Discussions:

• Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, had a three-hour meeting with Putin in Moscow, which a Kremlin spokesperson described as "quite useful and constructive."
• Following Witkoff's meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a call with Trump and European leaders to discuss the Moscow talks.
• Zelenskyy stated that Russia appears more inclined to consider a ceasefire, attributing this to the pressure being applied.

3. Skepticism and Previous Attempts:

• DW's Yuri Rashetto expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, despite Trump's optimism.
• Rashetto noted that Trump has shown a desire to see progress at any cost and to present it as his personal achievement.
• He pointed out that similar announcements of potential meetings have been made twice before (in Saudi Arabia and Turkey), but Putin did not attend.
• Marco Rubio has emphasized that fundamental agreements must be reached first, a sentiment echoed in the past.
• Rashetto estimates the chances of a meeting taking place next week at 50/50 at best.

4. Sanctions and Economic Pressure:

• Despite positive spin on Witkoff's meeting, the White House plans to move forward with secondary sanctions aimed at Russian oil.
• Trump's threat involves punishing third countries (e.g., India, China, Brazil, Turkey) that buy Russian natural gas and oil if Putin doesn't stop fighting by Friday.
• It's unclear when the tariffs would be introduced and against which countries, although India has been mentioned.
• Rashetto believes these sanctions would affect Russian oil exports but are unlikely to stop Putin, given Russia's military advances in Ukraine.

5. Kremlin's Response:

• The Kremlin has remained silent on the prospect of three-way talks between Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy.
• Kremlin spokesman Mitropkov may issue a statement, but Putin is unlikely to comment.
• The Kremlin has cautiously indicated that such a meeting is possible in theory but nothing more.

6. Impact of Russian Military Actions:

• Russia has ignored previous US calls to end the war and has instead intensified attacks on civilian areas in Ukraine.
• As the deadline for more sanctions approaches, Russia struck a holiday camp in Ukraine's Zaparisia region, resulting in casualties.

7. Notable Quotes:

• Kremlin spokesperson on Witkoff's meeting: "quite useful and constructive discussion."
• Zelenskyy: "The pressure on them is working, but the main thing is to make sure they don't deceive anyone in the details. Neither us nor the United States."
• Rashetto: "I think the chances of such a meeting taking place next weeks are 50/50 at best."

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The transcript details the potential for a Trump-Putin meeting aimed at negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine, along with the threat of secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil and gas. While Trump expresses optimism, experts remain skeptical, citing previous failed attempts and the need for fundamental agreements. The Kremlin's silence and Russia's continued military actions in Ukraine further complicate the situation, making the prospect of a successful resolution uncertain. The effectiveness of the proposed sanctions in deterring Putin is also questioned, given Russia's recent military gains.