Will Rhind: Gold, Silver at Record Highs, Mania Phase Still to Come

Key Concepts

• Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates: The US central bank’s monetary policy, specifically interest rate adjustments, and the political pressures influencing these decisions.
• Inflation & CPI: The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, measured by the Consumer Price Index.
• Tariffs: Taxes imposed on imported goods, and their delayed impact on inflation and supply chains.
• Geopolitical Risk: The risks associated with international political instability and conflicts, impacting investment decisions.
• Dollar Strength/Weakness: The value of the US dollar relative to other currencies, influencing commodity prices.
• Precious Metals Bull Market: A sustained period of rising prices for gold, silver, and platinum.
• Central Bank Gold Buying: The practice of central banks globally increasing their gold reserves.
• Market Deficit (Metals): A situation where demand for a metal exceeds its supply.
• Gold/Silver Ratio & Dow/Gold Ratio: Metrics used to assess the relative value of gold and silver compared to other assets (like stocks).

Economic & Market Outlook for 2026

The discussion centers around the current economic landscape, particularly the interplay between monetary policy, inflation, geopolitical tensions, and precious metals markets. Will Rind, CEO of Granite Shares, provides insights into these areas, emphasizing the uncertainty and potential opportunities for investors.

Interest Rates & The Federal Reserve: The interview begins with the unusual situation of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell initiated by the Trump administration, allegedly stemming from the Fed’s reluctance to lower interest rates. Rind characterizes this as “political coercion…ratcheted up to a new level.” He anticipates continued downward pressure on interest rates, but stresses that the policy direction will heavily depend on the next Fed chair appointed after Powell’s term ends in May. He notes market expectations for a January rate cut have likely diminished following a strong GDP report at the end of the previous year.

Inflation & Tariff Impacts: While current CPI inflation numbers appear positive, Rind cautions against premature celebration. He believes the full effects of recently implemented tariffs have yet to be fully realized within the economic system. He explains that the key will be observing how distributors and manufacturers absorb these costs and whether they ultimately pass them on to consumers, potentially reigniting inflationary pressures. The impact of tariffs is highlighted as contributing to a better deficit situation through reduced imports and increased exports.

US Economy – A Positive Outlook: Despite the challenges, Rind presents a generally optimistic view of the US economy. He points to a strong GDP number, improved inflation, and a better deficit situation as positive indicators. Unemployment has ticked up slightly but remains at near full employment levels. He also highlights strong corporate earnings as a supporting factor for continued market growth.

Precious Metals – Gold, Silver & Platinum

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the performance and outlook for precious metals, particularly gold and silver.

Gold at All-Time Highs: The interview acknowledges gold and silver prices reaching or nearing all-time highs. Rind attributes this primarily to a weakening US dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions. He notes that the stock market has largely “shrugged off” geopolitical risks, while these risks are reflected in the price of gold. The criminal probe into Jerome Powell adds to the uncertainty driving gold prices higher.

Dollar’s Influence: Rind emphasizes that the current gold rally is, “first and foremost…a dollar story.” A weaker dollar benefits hard assets like gold.

Geopolitical Risk Premium: Increased geopolitical tensions – including the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Gaza conflict, and emerging situations in Venezuela and Iran – are contributing to a “risk premium” reflected in gold prices. The US adopting a more assertive military stance further exacerbates this risk.

Silver’s Catch-Up Rally: Silver’s recent breakout is discussed, with Rind explaining it’s a combination of following gold higher and responding to its own strong fundamentals. He notes that silver historically rises faster than gold during bull markets, but this didn’t occur until recently. Silver was “underinvested” and in a supply deficit, making it attractive to investors who may have felt they missed the initial gold rally.

Platinum’s Potential: The conversation turns to platinum, which has been rangebound for years. Rind suggests that platinum could be the “next one” to experience a significant rally, particularly given the current precious metals bull market. He points out that platinum historically traded at a premium to gold, and a return to that premium is conceivable.

Fundamental Strength in Precious Metals: Rind highlights the strong fundamentals supporting the precious metals market, including continued central bank buying of gold and a general supply deficit in several metals. He emphasizes that these fundamentals are driving prices higher, alongside geopolitical factors.

Emerging Trends & Investor Considerations

The Growing Importance of Hard Assets: The discussion touches on the increasing importance of hard assets, like precious metals, for countries around the world, particularly in the context of geopolitical shifts and the need for access to critical minerals and energy resources.

US Strategic Priorities: Rind suggests the US administration has clear strategic priorities, including securing access to critical minerals and reducing reliance on geopolitical adversaries. This is driving actions in regions like Venezuela and Greenland.

Mainstreaming of Precious Metals: Rind observes that gold is becoming more mainstream for investors, partly due to the attention brought by the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency community. He notes that mainstream media coverage of gold has increased recently, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment. He believes the market is not yet in a state of “mania” comparable to previous gold peaks.

Commodity Investment: Rind suggests investors are increasingly looking at commodities as a whole, not just gold, due to the difficulty in finding undervalued assets in current market conditions.

Notable Quotes:

• “I think it’s political coercion that’s just sort of being ratcheted up to a new level.” – Will Rind, on the investigation into Jerome Powell.
• “It’s a bit of both” – Will Rind, on whether silver is following gold or moving on its own fundamentals.
• “Gold has never been more in people’s consciousness than it is today.” – Will Rind, on the increased awareness of gold among investors.

Synthesis & Conclusion

The interview paints a picture of a complex economic landscape characterized by geopolitical uncertainty, shifting monetary policy, and a strengthening case for precious metals. While the US economy appears relatively robust, several risks remain, including the delayed impact of tariffs and the potential for increased geopolitical instability. Gold, silver, and platinum are benefiting from a combination of dollar weakness, geopolitical tensions, and strong fundamentals. The interview suggests that the current precious metals bull market has further to run, with silver and platinum potentially poised for significant gains. Investors are advised to consider the strategic importance of hard assets and to remain vigilant in monitoring geopolitical developments and economic indicators. The overall tone is cautiously optimistic, emphasizing the need for adaptability and a long-term perspective in navigating the evolving market conditions.