Will One Nation win the Farrer by-election? | 7.30

Key Concepts

• Bi-election: A special election held to fill a vacant parliamentary seat.
• Electorate of Farrer: A large rural electorate in New South Wales, historically a Liberal stronghold.
• Preference Allocation: A strategic decision by political parties to direct their voters' secondary preferences to another candidate.
• Teal Independent: A term used for independent candidates who often receive funding from the "Climate 200" group and focus on climate change and integrity.
• Net Zero: The target of achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions produced and removed from the atmosphere by 2050.
• Crossbench: Members of parliament who are not part of the government or the official opposition.

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1. The Political Landscape of the Farrer Bi-election

The Farrer bi-election has emerged as a high-stakes contest following the resignation of former Liberal leader Susan Lee, who held the seat for 25 years. The race is notable for the absence of a Labor candidate, leaving the contest primarily between Independent Michelle Milthorp and One Nation candidate David Farley. The Liberal Party, represented by candidate Raza Picusky, is struggling to maintain its historical grip on the seat, which is the second-largest electorate in New South Wales.

2. Strategic Alliances and Controversies

• Liberal-One Nation Preference Deal: The Liberal Party has directed preferences to One Nation’s David Farley over the Independent candidate. Liberal candidate Raza Picusky described this as a logistical decision for "ease of reference" on how-to-vote cards, though critics argue it risks alienating traditional coalition supporters and boosting a minor party.
• The "Political Chameleon" Allegation: David Farley faces scrutiny regarding his political consistency, having previously sought pre-selection for the Labor Party. Critics label him a "political chameleon," questioning his long-term loyalty to One Nation.
• The "Teal" Label: Michelle Milthorp has been labeled a "teal" independent due to financial support from Climate 200. She disputes this, asserting that her specific policy positions do not align with the broader teal movement.

3. Key Arguments and Voter Sentiment

• Economic vs. Environmental Policy: A central point of contention is the "Net Zero by 2050" target. David Farley argues that Australia cannot afford this transition, framing it as an untenable goal for the rural electorate.
• The "Protest Vote": There is a palpable shift in voter sentiment. Long-term Liberal supporters, such as local flower farmer Ross Files and community figure Father Peter, expressed disillusionment with the Coalition. Father Peter characterized One Nation as a "party of protest," suggesting that voters are seeking alternatives because the current political "engine" is broken.
• The Barnaby Joyce Factor: Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce has actively campaigned for One Nation, claiming his involvement has given voters "license" to change their political allegiances.

4. Notable Quotes

• David Farley (One Nation): "The reality is Australia can't afford net zero. I think it's untenable for us to think that we can get there by 2050."
• Father Peter (Community Figure): "If you've got a car that continually breaks down, then you do need to think about either getting a new engine or getting out of walking. And I think a lot of people are getting out of walking."
• Barnaby Joyce (One Nation Supporter): "I think people he gave them license and people said well if he can change I can change."

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The Farrer bi-election serves as a microcosm of broader Australian political instability. The Liberal Party is facing a crisis of confidence, with traditional voters in rural areas increasingly willing to abandon the party in favor of independents or minor parties like One Nation. The race is defined by a desire for change, skepticism toward major party platforms, and a strategic, albeit risky, preference deal that highlights the Coalition's struggle to remain relevant in its own heartland. The outcome will likely hinge on whether voters view the Liberal Party as a "broken engine" that needs replacing or if they will continue to drift toward protest-based alternatives.